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No Kickers Allowed

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  • No Kickers Allowed

    Well this is a first for me, I'll be posting about a dynasty football league that I'm not in! Keith asked me to run the KDS selection process so everyone emailed me their lists and I ran it through the KDS engine.

    Here's the results:

    Pete

    4 3 1 2 7 6 5 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

    First list I received and Pete was the only list that preferred pick 4. Easy one here, Pete gets his 1st choice with no competition. If he had not, 6 or 8 were likely next up for him.

    Keith

    3 4 2 1 14 13 12 5 11 10 6 9 7 8

    Like Pete, Keith wanted the 3/4 range, but Keith prioritized 3 over 4 instead. Keith was initially tied with Dennis and Brent for the 3 choice, however all of Keith's top 6 selections were 1st choices of someone else. Placing 13 and 14 in the top of his list gave him the tiebreaker over Dennis and Brent who had 6 in their top 6, a pick that no one had placed first.

    Steve P

    2 1 3 4 5 6 8 7 9 10 11 12 14 13

    Steve P prioritized the top portion of the draft like several others, but only Steve and Rick put the 2nd overall pick 1st in their queue. In the tiebreaker, we had a coinflip since Rick and Steve had the exact same top 6 (different order) with 6th being pick 6, an untaken option. Steve lost the coin flip. In pass 2, Steve and Brent both had pick 6 prioritized at spot 6, and Brent won the tiebreaker since Steve had pick 10 as his next option at slot 10 and Brent had pick 10 as his next option at slot 12. So Steven went into his 3rd round still looking for a pick, and tied again, this time with Dennis. Both had pick 10 in slot 10 and pick 12 (the only option left) in slot 12. So another coin flip but this time Steve "won" pick 10, his 10th preference.

    William

    7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 6 5 4 3 2 1

    William put in bid for the middle of the draft, similar to Andy and Ryan. Both William and Ryan put pick 7 first, and William lost his first tiebreaker due to having pick 9 as his 3rd option, a good fallback (vs 6 for Ryan, his 5th option). After losing a tiebreaker in round 1, William was alone in his preference for pick 9 in round 2, so he got pick 9 easily, his 3rd option.

    Andy

    8 7 6 1 2 5 4 3 14 13 12 11 10 9

    Another play for the middle of the draft, but this time Andy was alone in prioritizing pick 8. Easy win, Andy got his first choice with no competition. If he did not, pick 6 would have easily been his since Andy is the only team to have it in his top 5.

    Ryan

    7 1 8 2 6 3 9 4 10 5 11 14 12 13

    Third straight play for the middle of the draft. As mentioned in the writeup above for William, Ryan and William tied with their choice of slot 7, and Ryan won the tiebreaker since William had prioritized pick 9 and Ryan would have fallen off to his 5th choice - pick 6, which in case you are reading through all of these was not selected first by anyone but played a big role in most of the tiebreakers.

    Dennis

    3 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

    Every time we do a KDS, someone ends up unlucky. Dennis was that team. He lost the first tiebreaker to Keith, as mentioned above, due to pick 6 being in his top 6. But then he lost the tiebreaker for pick 6 to Brent, since Brent had pushed up the turn (pick 13/14) and those were early picks. And then he lost the coinfip for pick 10 to Steve P. So Dennis was the only team to lose 3 tiebreakers and he ended up with his 12 option, pick 10. Only Dennis and Steve P got worse than their 6th choice, but Dennis had the worst luck and fell all the way down to his 12th option.

    Brent

    3 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 14 13 9 10 11 12

    Eerily similar to Dennis' list. They had exactly the same top 8 selections, in the same order. As mentioned above, Brent lost the tiebreaker to Keith for pick 3 because of pick 6, however he won pick 6 in the second round due to pushing 14 and 13 up in his list. Brent was tied with Dennis and Steve P for that 6th spot, but since those picks on the turn were gone early, Brent would have had the worst fall if he didn't get pick 6, so he won the 3 way tie and got his 6th option, pick 6.

    Steve Conn

    13 12 3 14 2 1 11 10 4 5 9 8 7 6

    Steve was interested in picks around the turn and since he chose 13 instead of 14 he was alone in his first preference and won it easily with no competition. If he had lost 13, 12 was his easily.

    Ed
    14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

    Like Conn, Ed was interested in the turn, but he chose 14 instead (actually just a reverse draft order list here with no anomalies), and similarly he was the only one prioritizing that spot so he won it without competition. If Ed did not win his 1st choice, he was in the running for most of his top 5 - 12, 11, 10 were all available and would have been his pretty easily. Good list if you want to be near the end.

    Steve W

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

    The opposite of Ed's list, Steve just entered 1-14 in order instead of a customized list. He tied with Drew for the top spot, but with Drew prioritizing 11 4th on his list, Steve had the bigger fall (down to pick 6, which seems to be a common theme).

    Drew

    1 2 3 11 12 13 14 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    Back to back pick 1 selections. As mentioned above the tie came down to Drew prioritizing pick 11 4th, which lost him the 1st pick but also gave him pick 11, his 4th option.

    Chris

    5 4 3 2 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

    Last list I received and Chris managed to select a unique option. No one else had wanted pick 5 anywhere in their top 4, so Chris won this pick pretty easily.


    Summary:

    On whole, lots of unique choices. There seemed to be preferences for top 4, preferences for the end of the draft, and then a few scattered through the middle. 9 out of 14 teams got their 1st option. William, Drew, and Brent got options within their top 6. And Dennis and Steve P unfortunately lost in tiebreakers and ended up with selections near the bottom of their lists.

  • #2
    So, in the end, it turned out to be blind luck after all.
    "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
    - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

    "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
    -Warren Ellis

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Hornsby View Post
      So, in the end, it turned out to be blind luck after all.
      That's not what I read into it at all. There was some good strategy in play here.

      Comment


      • #4
        You skipped me

        Comment


        • #5
          Addendum, I skipped Rick!

          Rick

          2 3 1 4 5 6 7 8 14 13 9 12 11 10

          Rick and Steve P tied, prioritizing pick 2. As mentioned in the Steve writeup, with the same top 6 choices they went to a coinflip and Rick won it.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Ken View Post
            That's not what I read into it at all. There was some good strategy in play here.
            Sheer blind pig luck, LOL. Just kidding, Somewhat, LOL.
            "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
            - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

            "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
            -Warren Ellis

            Comment


            • #7
              I actually learned something from the last one. Last time I didn't load up enough on other desired picks around my number one choice and that bumped me down. This time I took what I thought were the picks people would want, 1,2,3,4, 14, and 13. I wanted 3 and by placing the other desirable picks around it I was able to win the tiebreaker and get my top choice. I enjoyed it, thanks Ken.

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              • #8
                Alls I gots to say is this draft is crayzee. I'm not getting the logic on many of these picks, but who am I to complain?

                Comment


                • #9
                  I enjoyed the KDS style of draft slots. I found it interesting.
                  After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Ed - there is a deliberate method to the madness at least for my team though execution of a bad strategy I guess is still poor execution��

                    I guess my overall premise is that if I’m not playing for 2020 then I will have a really good pick in next years rookie draft. Thus, that is 100% baked into my rationale for whom I’m picking and what positions I may be underweight on. Reality is my team construct is more around 2022 so really I am planning on 2 high rookie picks in the next 2 years and thus my skill position particularly at RB looks light. But in theory with 3 young QBs, 3 young TEs, and 5 young WRs I can focus those next 2 high rookie picks on RB.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Big Tymer View Post
                      Ed - there is a deliberate method to the madness at least for my team though execution of a bad strategy I guess is still poor execution��

                      I guess my overall premise is that if I’m not playing for 2020 then I will have a really good pick in next years rookie draft. Thus, that is 100% baked into my rationale for whom I’m picking and what positions I may be underweight on. Reality is my team construct is more around 2022 so really I am planning on 2 high rookie picks in the next 2 years and thus my skill position particularly at RB looks light. But in theory with 3 young QBs, 3 young TEs, and 5 young WRs I can focus those next 2 high rookie picks on RB.
                      It seems many have a strong eye on the future, but in the NFL, young doesn't necessarily equate to good.

                      Plus, with careers so short, my thinking was established older players may even exceed the career length (at least as a starter) of some young players. Sure, if you hit on a couple of young players you get them for a long time, but you can look back through recent NFL Drafts and some are plentiful (like 2017) while others are disasters. I could only think how this draft would've played out in 2018 with so many RBs going in the first two rounds -- yet most of them failed badly.

                      I'm sure some will work out and others won't. I just couldn't find myself passing on established stars to take dart throws. Of course, I could be crying in my soup two seasons from now, I guess we'll see!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Absolutely. I 100% think your team construct is the “better” way to go and you’ve played it out well. Following the draft since the early 90s, I also couldn’t agree more that bust is more likely than boom for most of these. In a higher stakes league I would play it differently but for a relatively low buy in I decided to have a bit more fun albeit likely at the expense of a winning record anytime soon.

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                        • #13
                          Who won?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ken View Post
                            Who won?
                            Andy beat me in the finals, 169.45 - 152.28.

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