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Polanco was a popular sleeper going into 2018, with a good finish to 2017 that gave him a 13hr/13sb season that year. Then he got popped for an 80-game PED suspension in 2018. In the half of the season he played, he was very good. Well, really he was his 2017 self with a better BABIP. He also got caught stealing 7 times, but I'm not sure the Twins will give him a red light just yet.
2017: 544pa, 265/313/410, 7.5% walk rate, 14.3% K rate, 13hr, 13sb, .278 BABIP, 0.89 G/F
2018: 333pa, 288/345/427, 7.5% walk rate, 18.6% K rate, 6hr, 7sb, .345 BABIP, 0.94 G/F
Despite the increased K rate, and the relatively high flyball rate for a speedy middle infielder, he did not pull more balls in 2018. His pull% went down from 44.2% to 38.3%. His hard contact rate did go up 5 percent and he hit the ball the other way more often. Seems like someone becoming a better hitter, I guess?
His average exit velocity was very low, at 83.8. Only about 10 players in baseball were worse than him. So it seems like what he needs to do is stop hitting so many fly balls? Using the whole field is at least a place to start.
Projections
THE BAT: 608pa, 270/330/424, 15 HR, 15 SB
ATC: 617pa, 274/331/420, 13 HR, 13 SB
Steamer: 640pa, 272/333//420, 14 HR, 15 SB
Not a lot of difference there.
If I had to guess, I'd say more like 12-13 HR but 16-17 SB. If he does hit .270 or better that's a nice positive.
The Twins signed him to a 5-year extension despite having Royce Lewis and Nick Gordon waiting in the wings, so they must believe in him. Barring injury, I don't expect Marwin Gonzalez to take a lot of time from Polanco. Not as good at short, and lots of other places for Marwin to play.
Draft info
NFBC Online Championships since 2/1/19. Polanco is the 21st SS off the board:
17. Elvis Andrus, ADP 170
18. Eduardo Escobar, ADP 177
19. Paul Dejong, ADP 177
20. Garrett Hampson, ADP 184
21. Jorge Polanco, ADP 195
22. Andrelton Simmons, ADP 206
23. Willy Adames, ADP 206
24. Ketel Marte, ADP 209
25. Marcus Semien, ADP 210
This is where I'm shopping for both my SS and MI, since I love this range. I probably like Semien more than most of these guys. Really, Polanco, Simmons, Adames, Marte and Semien are all pretty similar, with double digit HR and SB and relatively stable playing time.
2017: 544pa, 265/313/410, 7.5% walk rate, 14.3% K rate, 13hr, 13sb, .278 BABIP, 0.89 G/F
2018: 333pa, 288/345/427, 7.5% walk rate, 18.6% K rate, 6hr, 7sb, .345 BABIP, 0.94 G/F
Despite the increased K rate, and the relatively high flyball rate for a speedy middle infielder, he did not pull more balls in 2018. His pull% went down from 44.2% to 38.3%. His hard contact rate did go up 5 percent and he hit the ball the other way more often. Seems like someone becoming a better hitter, I guess?
His average exit velocity was very low, at 83.8. Only about 10 players in baseball were worse than him. So it seems like what he needs to do is stop hitting so many fly balls? Using the whole field is at least a place to start.
Projections
THE BAT: 608pa, 270/330/424, 15 HR, 15 SB
ATC: 617pa, 274/331/420, 13 HR, 13 SB
Steamer: 640pa, 272/333//420, 14 HR, 15 SB
Not a lot of difference there.
If I had to guess, I'd say more like 12-13 HR but 16-17 SB. If he does hit .270 or better that's a nice positive.
The Twins signed him to a 5-year extension despite having Royce Lewis and Nick Gordon waiting in the wings, so they must believe in him. Barring injury, I don't expect Marwin Gonzalez to take a lot of time from Polanco. Not as good at short, and lots of other places for Marwin to play.
Draft info
NFBC Online Championships since 2/1/19. Polanco is the 21st SS off the board:
17. Elvis Andrus, ADP 170
18. Eduardo Escobar, ADP 177
19. Paul Dejong, ADP 177
20. Garrett Hampson, ADP 184
21. Jorge Polanco, ADP 195
22. Andrelton Simmons, ADP 206
23. Willy Adames, ADP 206
24. Ketel Marte, ADP 209
25. Marcus Semien, ADP 210
This is where I'm shopping for both my SS and MI, since I love this range. I probably like Semien more than most of these guys. Really, Polanco, Simmons, Adames, Marte and Semien are all pretty similar, with double digit HR and SB and relatively stable playing time.
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