2K19 Jonathan Villar

[Gregg]

I have no idea, but I kind of like him for this year.

What do you say?

[DMT]

He helped me win a title, then burned me the following year. I have no idea and thankfully he's being kept in my league (7) so I don't have to worry.

[joncarlos]

I mean, if nothing else, the O's have no reason not to play him.

2018 stats: 515 PA, 260/325/384, 14 HR, 54 R, 46 RBI, 35 SB. An 8% walk rate, a 26.8% K rate, a .312 BABIP. Only 5 CS.

A slight decline overall in both hard hit rate and soft contact rate. When you're Villar, either is fine, but the stuff in the middle will kill you.

The O's have a new manager, whose SB tendencies for stolen bases are unknown. But Villar was 35/40 last year and the O's offense is going to suck, so I don't see any reason to hold him back.

Projections:

THE BAT: 505pa, .244-16-49-70r-33sb
ATC: 539pa .257-14-50-63r-42sb
STEAMER/Depth Charts: 581pa, .250-15-57-68r-31sb

First time I can remember seeing any meaningful differences in the 3 projections.

Draft position:

(15-team NFBC draft champions leagues since 1/1/19)

He's going 68th overall:

64. Pham
65. Segura
66. Treinen
67. Votto
68. Villar
69. Kimbrel
70. Dahl
71. Kenley

Not a lot of similar guys around him. I do prefer Segura to him. Pham too.

Among second basemen:

2B4 Albies (ADP ~55)
2B5 Gleyber (ADP ~63)
2B6 Villar (ADP ~70)
2B7 Murphy (ADP ~79)
2B8 Shaw (ADP ~103)
2B9 Dee Gordon (ADP ~103)

Also not a lot of comparables there. It all depends on your team needs.

Among speed guys (thinking 30+ SB is a legit possibility):

Mondesi ADP 41
Villar ADP 70
Mallex Smith ADP 88
Dee Gordon ADP 103
Peraza ADP 92
Amed Rosario ADP 135 (maybe?)
Billy Hamilton ADP 150


So Villar is kind of on an island for 2B guys and speed guys. If you pass on him, you'd better have a plan to address speed later.

In an auction, you hope he comes out early so you can decide if you're getting him or not. If you are sitting there for 130 players waiting on Villar, someone else probably is too.

I think I'm closest to THE BAT (505pa, .244-16-49-70r-33sb) with a couple more HRs and steals. Camden is a good place to hit, after all.

[TranaGreg]

it's not like Balt will be in the hunt so I don't see ABs being an issue. I agree that the Bat projections look reasonable.

... In an auction, you hope he comes out early so you can decide if you're getting him or not. If you are sitting there for 130 players waiting on Villar, someone else probably is too.

yeah, I see him as one of those the guys that a few teams save money for at the end, so when everyone else is going $5-$10, all of a sudden there's a bidding war & he goes for $28. And another guy is stuck with too much money at the end of the auction. You don't want to be that guy. (I'm keeping him at $16 in RJEL - 18 team 5x5)

[onejayhawk]

He's Adalberto Mondesi 25-30 picks later.

J

[cavebird]

He's Adalberto Mondesi 25-30 picks later.

J

Agreed, but with the same caveat that the on-base skills might be so bad to make both worthless.

[onejayhawk]

Agreed, but with the same caveat that the on-base skills might be so bad to make both worthless.

Not worthless, that's Billy Hamilton. Both Villar and Mondesi have 15-20 HR pop.

While we are doing caveats, Mondesi is four years younger and has a better hit tool. If he walked as much as Villar, AM would be worth his SDP slot.

J

[cavebird]

Not worthless, that's Billy Hamilton. Both Villar and Mondesi have 15-20 HR pop.

While we are doing caveats, Mondesi is four years younger and has a better hit tool. If he walked as much as Villar, AM would be worth his SDP slot.

J

Villar has a career xBA of .232. His "good" 2018: 14 HR, 35 SB, .260 involved an xBA of .223; his "bad" 2017: 11 HR, 23 SB, .241 involved an xBA of .222. If he's hitting .180 on June 1st due to bad BABIP luck and Baltimore knows he won't get anything at the trade deadline, he could easily lose playing time to a kid. And he has only once hit 15 or more HR in a season; I am not sure I would call that 15-20 HR pop. Mondesi has some better batting skills, but both of them strike out way too much, and Mondesi was a bit lucky last year---his batting skills are better than Villar's, but that doesn't mean that they are great. As you note, Mondesi definitely has more reason to expect improvement. Hamilton has far less power, but is similar otherwise as a hitter, which is scary, because he is more or less the worst hitter in the majors who has gotten regular playing time the last five years. Given that playing time is an issue (they'll all steal enough to be worth something if they play all year)--defense can matter, too. Hamilton is elite, which definitely helps his playing time. Mondesi is pretty good, which also helps. Villar has played all over the infield---poorly. His glove won't keep him in the lineup.

[onejayhawk]

Villar has a career xBA of .232. His "good" 2018: 14 HR, 35 SB, .260 involved an xBA of .223; his "bad" 2017: 11 HR, 23 SB, .241 involved an xBA of .222. If he's hitting .180 on June 1st due to bad BABIP luck and Baltimore knows he won't get anything at the trade deadline, he could easily lose playing time to a kid. And he has only once hit 15 or more HR in a season; I am not sure I would call that 15-20 HR pop. Mondesi has some better batting skills, but both of them strike out way too much, and Mondesi was a bit lucky last year---his batting skills are better than Villar's, but that doesn't mean that they are great. As you note, Mondesi definitely has more reason to expect improvement. Hamilton has far less power, but is similar otherwise as a hitter, which is scary, because he is more or less the worst hitter in the majors who has gotten regular playing time the last five years. Given that playing time is an issue (they'll all steal enough to be worth something if they play all year)--defense can matter, too. Hamilton is elite, which definitely helps his playing time. Mondesi is pretty good, which also helps. Villar has played all over the infield---poorly. His glove won't keep him in the lineup.

That's a better point. Mondesi is good enough with a glove that they put him on the World Series roster at age 18.

J

[Ken]

That's a better point. Mondesi is good enough with a glove that they put him on the World Series roster at age 18.

J

Weird, if my memory serves, I thought he was put on that roster as a pinch runner for late game scenarios, not for his glove.

[onejayhawk]

Weird, if my memory serves, I thought he was put on that roster as a pinch runner for late game scenarios, not for his glove.

That was his appearance in the WS, yes.

J

[cavebird]

But he has a glove. And Hamilton has a better one. Villar, not so much. Not a big deal in fantasy, but worth mentioning with guys who have their biggest issue being that they are not good in real baseball even though being good in fantasy with the bat. Having a different real baseball skill keeps you in the lineup. Hell, with at cavern and no OF's who can hit, Hamilton should have ended up in Frisco. He'd be a great fit there.

[Fresno Bob]

But he has a glove. And Hamilton has a better one. Villar, not so much. Not a big deal in fantasy, but worth mentioning with guys who have their biggest issue being that they are not good in real baseball even though being good in fantasy with the bat. Having a different real baseball skill keeps you in the lineup. Hell, with at cavern and no OF's who can hit, Hamilton should have ended up in Frisco. He'd be a great fit there.

not if he calls it "Frisco", unless you are talking about Texas

[onejayhawk]

Hey. I've been to Frisco.

J

[Ken]

Hey. I've been to Frisco.

J

To a RoughRiders game? I went to one there last year.