2K16: Logan Forsythe

[Pauly]

To quote Eno Sarris:

Logan Forsythe came out of nowhere for the Rays last year. There he was: 28 years old and suddenly 15% better than he ever was before, in twice as much playing time as he’d ever had in a season, no less. There’s some power growth, some added patience, and some of the best batted ball luck and defensive numbers of his career.

Steamer projects similar numbers to last season: 13 HR, a handful of SB, 60ish Runs and RBI each but a decent-sized regression in BABIP and Batting Avg. MoonlightJ probably has the most perspective on this, but what does the 'pen say on Forsythe on this type of regression. Also, is his playing time secure?

Like most people probably do, I have him for really cheap ($1 in a 12-tm mixed). There is definitely guaranteed ROI there, especially at 2B...the question is, how much, and should he be more of a trade bait player than a real keeper?

Thanks.

[Moonlight J]

Something I recently wrote about him - http://theprocessreport.net/forsythe-extended/

[joncarlos]

I definitely think his PT is secure. Jason seems to think his AVG won't crater as much as expected. Big difference in value from his .281 AVG last year to his .254 AVG projected by steamer.

Hit 299/373/599 against lefties... smashed them like he always does.

Managed 273/353/375 against righties... much better than usual. I assume a little bit of regression happens there.

In 2014 he had 34 Ks vR in 160ab. (21%)
In 2015 he had 80 Ks vR in 373ab. (21%)

That's a little worrisome. I think the .265-.270 range is a better bet.

[Moonlight J]

we put out our full breakdown of Forsythe in a player card today

http://theprocessreport.net/logan-forsythe-2016-player-card/

[Moonlight J]

He was just announced as the everyday leadoff hitter in 2016

This is why I think that's a good thing - https://t.co/FN1c9irhhQ

[chancellor]

Interesting article, Jason. Do you think he'll run a little more?

[Moonlight J]

Interesting article, Jason. Do you think he'll run a little more?

Yes, I think he can steal 10-12 bags. He didn't get the chance to run that often in the middle of the lineup, but now he should because the 9th place spot in this lineup has always been a dead zone.

[chancellor]

Yes, I think he can steal 10-12 bags. He didn't get the chance to run that often in the middle of the lineup, but now he should because the 9th place spot in this lineup has always been a dead zone.

Thanks much! Time to move him up quite a bit.