2k16: George Springer

[joncarlos]

I think I'm higher on Springer than most.

2015 stats: 451pa, 276/367/459, 16 HR, 59 R, 41 RBI, 16 SB (4 CS)
2015 advanced: 11.1% BB rate, 24.2% K rate, .342 BABIP, 24.5% LD, 45.5% GB

In 2014 he only stole 5 bases in 78 games. So I'm a little worried the speed won't totally stick around.

He cut his K rate from 33 to 24 last season. Hit 27% of his balls to the opposite field (seems good). His hard contact % did go down but it all went to medium and not low, so that's not soooo bad.

Steamer projects him for 645 PA, 256/344/464 with 29 HR and 18 SB. That's... a really nice projection which I think he might even be able to beat. If he can stay healthy. He had a broken wrist last year (ok that's flukey) but had a 60-something game quad injury in 2014.

[Sour Masher]

I like Springer a lot, but his durability concerns me. I traded him for a title run for the same reason I traded Stanton a couple of years prior--huge upside bats tend to have great market value, but unless your team needs to take that risk to compete, I don't think it is wise to aggressively pursue players more likely than not to miss 20+% of the season.

As you indicate, the wrist was flukey, but he has gotten banged up before, and he has also shown he takes awhile to heal, even as a young man. For that reason, he makes me nervous, but like Stanton, his upside, especially his power, is so enticing someone will pay top dollar for him (JC, I think that maybe some risk adverse guys will back away, but I think more people see his huge upside than you think). I expect him to be taken or paid as a top 20 hitter, and he has the talent to easily produce at that level, but I think the risk is too high that he misses 30-40 games to pay it myself.

That said, I do think some of the sbs will come back, and I could see him topping 20 if he stays healthy all year. And if he gets 645 PAs, unless he is playing banged up a lot of the time, I think he'll get over 30 homers, and if he fly ball rate increases even a little, he has a shot at 35 homers--his power is really legit. But again, as much as I like his talent, I put him in the Tulo, Cargo, Stanton camp of guys I am unlikely to pay what it will take to get them, given their durability concerns.