Keeper Advice

[Friarfan]

I'm in a 12 team, PPR, IDP league and we get 3 keepers (if we don't keep 3, we have a supplemental draft so that all teams have 3 heading in to the main draft (so, essentially, our draft starts in the 4th round).

Last year we switched to this starting lineup format:

1 QB
1 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 Flex - RB/WR/TE
1 K
4 IDP

So, basically, our league is pretty WR heavy. My keeper options:

Odell Beckham Jr
Alshon Jeffrey
Mike Evans
Jimmy Graham

I came in 3rd, so I'll have the 10th pick when we start our draft (4.10).

I'm leaning on keeping OBJ, Alshon and Evans. Giving me 3 of the top 11 (per ADPs) receivers in the game. I figure I score with RBs later like I did last year with Stewart. I hate to let Graham go, but I'm skeered of his move to the Seachickens.

Or...

I could trade a package of Graham and Alshon or Evans to move up to the top pick of the draft (so, 4.01). It would give me a pick in the supplemental draft where I could have a shot at Melvin Gordon/Gurley/Cooper (basically, any of the rookies) or potentially a CJ Anderson (whose current owner's team is stocked and might be on the bubble)

Should just keep the three stud WRs and stop overthinking it?

[Erik]

Standing pat with the three stud WRs is fine given this format, but making that deal would work too. I think the question is, who would your 4th best player be in either scenario? That is, who would you be able to get at 4.10 if you stood pat, and who would you be able to get at 4.01 if you made the deal?

[Friarfan]

Standing pat with the three stud WRs is fine given this format, but making that deal would work too. I think the question is, who would your 4th best player be in either scenario? That is, who would you be able to get at 4.10 if you stood pat, and who would you be able to get at 4.01 if you made the deal?

I think the difference between 4.01 and 4.10 would be:

Potential 4.01 - Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, DeAndre Hopkins, Carlos Hyde
Potneital 4.10 - Ellington, Martavis Bryant, Spiller, J Stew

If I keep the 3 WRs, I'm hoping that Spiller is there at 4.10. I LOVE him in a PPR league in that offense. If he's not there, I guess I'd be fine with Stewart as my #1 (he produced like a #1 over the last 5 games last year) but of course the question with him is always health and he still loses goalline carries to the QB and Tolbert is still there to hawk those carries. I would not touch Ellington with a ten foot pole.

I am really liking Ameer Abdullah from Det, but wouldn't take him at 4.10. If he's there at 5.10 I'd jump on him.

[jwlincy]

I could trade a package of Graham and Alshon or Evans to move up to the top pick of the draft (so, 4.01). It would give me a pick in the supplemental draft where I could have a shot at Melvin Gordon/Gurley/Cooper (basically, any of the rookies) or potentially a CJ Anderson (whose current owner's team is stocked and might be on the bubble)

Should just keep the three stud WRs and stop overthinking it?

If you deal Evans & Graham for the 4.01 pick, you would only keep 2 players (OBJ & Jeffery)? Where would you pick in the 3rd round supplemental draft?

Have you went through and projected all the other team's keepers? That might be a good place to start so that you could project who would be available?

Could you offer a draft pick to the C.J. Anderson owner? I'd really like to pair him with OBJ & Jeffery or Evans.

[Friarfan]

If you deal Evans & Graham for the 4.01 pick, you would only keep 2 players (OBJ & Jeffery)? Where would you pick in the 3rd round supplemental draft?

Have you went through and projected all the other team's keepers? That might be a good place to start so that you could project who would be available?

Could you offer a draft pick to the C.J. Anderson owner? I'd really like to pair him with OBJ & Jeffery or Evans.

If I only kept two, then I'd get one "entry" into the supplemental draft. Anyone who doesn't have 3 keepers goes into a hat and pulled at random. If I didn't keep any, I'd have three entries. I could get the first pick...or the last...or anywhere in between.

I have looked at the potential keepers for other teams and, other than the yearly "WTF?" keepers from one or two of them, I'm pretty sure of who is keeping whom.

There's nothing I could offer the Anderson keeper that wouldn't make it look like collusion if we did a trade for a swap of draft picks. We've had this before "He was dropping him anyway, so we swapped picks in the last round."

[revo]

I'd keep the three WRs.

[chancellor]

I'd keep the three WRs.

After the explanation, I'd keep the three WRs, too. Without hesitation.

[griswold]

I'd keep the 3 WR's as well.

[Friarfan]

Well, I don't like this...

"Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery suffered an injury that is leaving us feeling unsettled tonight. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune tweeted out that there was no sign of Jeffery after the game and he was told that Jeffery was in a walking boot. Head coach John Fox updated the situation and called it day-to-day, but there was additional information that Jeffery is also on crutches to "immobilize" the injury and speed up recovery.

Our Dr. Jene Bramel tweeted out: "Mostly questioning the day-to-day comment from Fox on Jeffery. Strain severe enough to immobilize calf fibers probably worse than low grade"

So, I've whittled it down to who I think may be available in the supplemental draft. If I choose to drop Alshon (and I'm not saying I'm being too knee-jerk about this news and going to do it, but it's just an option), here's who would be available:

CJ Anderson or Jordy Nelson (owner needs to decide between them as he also has Dez and Antonio Brown)
Mccoy
Forsett
Cobb
Lamar Miller
Jimmy Graham
Brandin Cooks
Emmanuel Sanders
Alshon (I could always pick him back up if he's there)

Then, there's the rookies - keep in mind that this is a keeper league, so if Gurley doesn't start the year, he's still an awesome keeper, no?
Melvin Gordon
Todd Gurley
Amari Cooper

I think that there will be 9 picks in the supplemental draft (for people who don't keep the full three). Order is randomized, so I could get the first pick. If I did, I take Anderson (if available) or McCoy.

The players that I would be happy taking in place of keeping Alshon would be: Anderson/Nelson, Forsett, McCoy.

Players that I would be satisfied replacing Alshon: Cobb, Cooks, Sanders

If I didn't get one of the top 6 picks, I'd need to decide if I pick Alshon back up or replace him with Miller, Graham or one of the rookies (I'm very high on Cooper).

Thoughts? Or did I make this too convoluted?

[chancellor]

You have a 5/9 chance of upgrading, a 2/9 chance of staying about the same, and a 2/9 chance of losing value, assuming Alshon isn't hurt badly. I'd take that risk

[Friarfan]

You have a 5/9 chance of upgrading, a 2/9 chance of staying about the same, and a 2/9 chance of losing value, assuming Alshon isn't hurt badly. I'd take that risk

Thanks, Chance! That's what I was thinking. Alshon seems to deal with a lot of muscle type injuries. Last year he was hampered for a while.

You know I've never forgiven you for that pink nightmare avatar you hung on me years ago

[chancellor]

Thanks, Chance! That's what I was thinking. Alshon seems to deal with a lot of muscle type injuries. Last year he was hampered for a while.

You know I've never forgiven you for that pink nightmare avatar you hung on me years ago

GITH is the only person I lose bets to on here.

But I have to give full credit to my daughter. She morphed a Pokemon character, My Little Pony, and a cartoon character to come up with that beauty. That baby was worth TWO trips to the local ice cream place!

[Friarfan]

Ok, keepers are in and I was pretty much right on in who was being kept - aside from a couple of trades that were made and the Jordy Nelson injury. I have one of 7 picks in the "supplemental Draft" to get me to the required three keepers heading in to the main draft.

Here's who I am targeting:

McCoy
Forsett
Latavius Murray
Mark Ingram
Todd Gurley - remember, it is a keeper league
Melvin Gordon
Amari Cooper

And, of course, I could grab Alshon back up if he's there.

Please rank them...

[frae]

McCoy
Forsett
Latavius Murray
Mark Ingram
Todd Gurley - remember, it is a keeper league
Melvin Gordon
Amari Cooper

Forsett - I am playing to win this year so I would take him first
Gurley - The talent is insane and I am not clear on how long you can keep him for, but huge upside
Ingram - If I don't get Gurley I go back to playing for this year
McCoy - Personally I don't want him on my team, but I guess at some point you have to take him
Cooper - Guaranteed role and the whole keeper thing
Gordon - See Cooper
Murray - It is the Raiders, I don't trust them or him long term.

[jwlincy]

McCoy
Forsett
Latavius Murray
Mark Ingram
Todd Gurley - remember, it is a keeper league
Melvin Gordon
Amari Cooper

Forsett - I am playing to win this year so I would take him first
Gurley - The talent is insane and I am not clear on how long you can keep him for, but huge upside
Ingram - If I don't get Gurley I go back to playing for this year
McCoy - Personally I don't want him on my team, but I guess at some point you have to take him
Cooper - Guaranteed role and the whole keeper thing
Gordon - See Cooper
Murray - It is the Raiders, I don't trust them or him long term.

I think that this is pretty much on the money. I really like Forsett in the Tresman offense, could be a ton of receptions for him. I'd probably slot Alshon in just ahead Cooper although with his calf injury, I would have a problem taking Cooper over Alshon. Good luck.