2K15: Mike Minor

[revo]

WTF happened here?

2013
13-9, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.9 K/BB, 8.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 205 IP, 3.37 FIP

2014
6-12, 4.77 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 2.7 K/BB, 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 145 IP, 4.39 FIP

His BABIP against rose from .274 to .327, so maybe that's one reason for this epic disaster, but his velocity has been remarkably similar over the last four seasons, so we can't blame that. LHBs really tagged him this past season to the tune of a 1.90 WHIP, but he only faced 140 of them. So what the 'ell happened here, and is he a rebound candidate or a carcass in 2015?

[joncarlos]

Contact rate was way up and swinging strike rate (which was never great) fell even further. Whatever it was, it was a "stuff" problem, or more likely a "location" problem.

2013 SwStr on changeups: 16.2%
2014 SwStr on changeups: 8.7%

2013 SwStr on curve/knuckle curve: 18.2%/17.1%
2014 SwStr on knuckle curve: 13.5%

[revo]

So it's correctable? If so, is he a good value for 2015?

[joncarlos]

So it's correctable? If so, is he a good value for 2015?

Need more research or someone more knowledgeable about what actually happened. But my gut says that's not an easily fixable problem. It's not bad luck... it seems (to me anyway) like he deserved that BABIP.