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Thread: 2K22: San Diego Padres

  1. #2111
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    Pads: poor offense and poor middle relief - not a recipe for sustained success. Wasting great starting pitching. You can lay the poor roster construction at the feet of of AJ Preller.

  2. #2112
    Quote Originally Posted by FBP View Post
    Pads: poor offense and poor middle relief - not a recipe for sustained success. Wasting great starting pitching. You can lay the poor roster construction at the feet of of AJ Preller.
    OK I'll bite--If by poor you mean middle of the pack--Ok the hitting is poor. (I'd say league Avg.) It's league Avg and that's OK. If by Poor you mean top 3rd then OK...Their BP is top 10 even with all the injuries. They seem to be worse because they have little margin for error so the games that have slipped away were very close to being wins and even if they had half of those, they'd be tied with LA for the best record in the NL. You say they can't sustain it, but they have--why? Pitching and Defense and the ever elusive club chemistry. They're top 5 in both and Melvin has changed the culture. These guys win and lose together and rebound with the best. All this without arguably one of the top 3 players in the MLB. I've watched my share of Padre games over the past few decades, more so since games have become more accessible away from the ballpark. There's just something different with this team--I credit Melvin and Niebla. They're struggling this past week 5-5 in their last 10, yet sit just 3 games back of LA, 4th best record in the NL. They're run differential puts them right where they should be (it's 5th) So If you'r saying their record is unsustainable--I'll have to respectfully disagree. Sure Machado and Hosmer are due some regression, but the rest of the team is due to get better and there are signs of just that.

    You lay all of this at Preller's feet, roster construction--well he built that 'great' starting rotation as well, every member of it. He brought in Machado and Tatis. Melvin and Niebla. So IF the Padres can sustain and make the playoffs--every bit of that is because of him as well. He's not a perfect GM, but in my 45 years of being a Padres fan they've only had a couple of team that were as relevant as this one.

    This Padres team as is, isn't the same team you'll see at the deadline or end of the season. Guys like Cano, Alacantara, Wilson and potentially others will have been replaced by more productive pieces. There is no panic in these guys, nor in Preller.

    We'll see today-- Darvish on the mound, the Padres have lost 2 in a row (they haven't lost more than that in a row all season)

    Wow that was a mouthful--I guess I'll leave it with this--------According to Twitter, the Padres are the first team to ever be eliminated at 30-19.

    Don't be a Twit.
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

  3. #2113
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
    If by Poor you mean top 3rd then OK...Their BP is top 10 even with all the injuries. They seem to be worse because they have little margin for error so the games that have slipped away were very close to being wins and even if they had half of those, they'd be tied with LA for the best record in the NL.
    Note that he said poor MIDDLE relief. Rogers has obviously pitched well. But obviously not in middle relief so citing the top 10 BP isn't really telling the whole picture.

    Wilson and Hill have been bad. Lamet failed as a reliever. Suarez, Crismatt and Stammen have been average to above average, if a bit lucky.

  4. #2114
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Note that he said poor MIDDLE relief. Rogers has obviously pitched well. But obviously not in middle relief so citing the top 10 BP isn't really telling the whole picture.

    Wilson and Hill have been bad. Lamet failed as a reliever. Suarez, Crismatt and Stammen have been average to above average, if a bit lucky.
    OK let's unpack that. Wilson has been bad, Lamet failed, Suarez, Stammen and Crismatt have indeed been Avg and just a bit lucky and I'm not sure what analytic you're using--xFIP? WAR? Some combination? A reference point would help me in undertstanding. Here's some things I feel you missed in your response.

    The Padre BP in 5th by xFIP, 10th in WAR--Rogers is 5th in XFIP in the Padres BP and tied for 1st in WAR. There have been many shit arms who've contributed to that avg/above avg BP to date. Do we look at the CURRENT BP or the entirety of the season to date? In MY analysis, I focus on who's on the team now and who might be going forward--what happened in the past may have been a poor choice/mistake--but hopefully the fact they are in the past means the FO/Management has learned and improved the product. But others might choose a different baseline for their analysis--the Middle relief for the year has still put the Padres at 30-19, though one could say they've held them back from having an even better record. I don't know if there's a way to get exact Middle relief numbers vs total BP numbers without taking the time to crunch all those one's self--but I'll do my best to extrapolate from what I've got.

    You say Suarez, Stammen and Crismatt have been lucky--you're right, but their xFIP is still under 3.50 which puts them under the team xFIP at 3.59 so I don't see them as the problem. You say Hill has been bad--well, since he's returned from his injury he's got a 2.46 xFIP and he's only pitched 10 innings so I'd say sample size doesn't allow us to really gauge if he's bad or not even so--his totals for the year show he's gotten a bit unlucky but he's never been more than an Avg guy (3.80-4.10) anyway so maybe he will also be replaced down the stretch. Rogers has been a rock, but his 3.10 xFIP is 4th in the BP and he's tied with Garcia in WAR whom I didn't see mentioned.

    Over the past 2 weeks, the middle relief has been decent to avg--but not poor. I define poor as bottom of the league even if you look at it over the past 2 weeks when Rogers has literally been the Avg reliever on the team, the Padres BP is still top 3rd. That doesn't make it Poor from my perspective--Avg? yes, Disappointing--yes, room for improvement--Always. But I stand by my assertion that the Padres have the exact record they should have if not a couple of games under.

    FBP is not alone in the way he feels--there are quite a few Padre fans who aren't fans of Prellers, nor are the happy with the Padres record or think the Padres are playing over their heads--I just don't share that sentiment. I also feel I'm a little more informed and intuitive regarding all things Padres, but that could just be my Hubris.

    If I've missed something or mis-read something you posted--please feel free to edify me. As always--thanks for the input--I enjoy things that make me work for my supper.
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

  5. #2115
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    It seems like you are attacking a straw man here. I was responding to your post to fbp where you referenced stats for the entire bullpen to counter his characterization about middle relief. And it seems like you agree with my other points as well. So... not sure what argument you have with me, seems like you are still arguing with FBP.

  6. #2116
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    It seems like you are attacking a straw man here. I was responding to your post to fbp where you referenced stats for the entire bullpen to counter his characterization about middle relief. And it seems like you agree with my other points as well. So... not sure what argument you have with me, seems like you are still arguing with FBP.
    Not arguing with you, I don't agree with FBP so I guess I'm arguing with him, but I don't see much of an argument there.

    I just wanted to understand how you arrived at you takes re: the Padres middle relief, that's all.
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

  7. #2117
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    GITH. The team hits very poorly vs RHP. In the starting lineup there are 3 LHH, 2 of which are having poor years (Grisham and Croneworth). Again poor roster construction. Preller gave up much too much to get Nola who along with Alfaro have thrown out 2 of 21 batters and barely hit their weight. I have also watched most of the Padre games and don’t share your optimism. Their positive record has been against the dregs of the league. They have a losing record against teams who are above 500. They are on the verge of being swept by the Cardinals after losing two games in which they were tied or had the lead in the late innings. Can’t even imagine where they would be without Rogers (credit Preller here). I also see them being hampered at the trade deadline unless they blow thru the cap. On a positive note, they are not the Phillies.
    Last edited by FBP; 06-01-2022 at 03:26 PM.

  8. #2118
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    how long until Mazara gets called up to replace Profar in LF?
    Mazara called up, Cano DFA'd

    Let's see what the kid can do!
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

  9. #2119
    Quote Originally Posted by FBP View Post
    GITH. The team hits very poorly vs RHP. In the starting lineup there are 3 LHH, 2 of which are having poor years (Grisham and Croneworth). Again poor roster construction. Preller gave up much too much to get Nola who along with Alfaro have thrown out 2 of 21 batters and barely hit their weight. I have also watched most of the Padre games and don’t share your optimism. Their positive record has been against the dregs of the league. They have a losing record against teams who are above 500. They are on the verge of being swept by the Cardinals after losing two games in which they were tied or had the lead in the late innings. Can’t even imagine where they would be without Rogers (credit Preller here). I also see them being hampered at the trade deadline unless they blow thru the cap. On a positive note, they are not the Phillies.
    The deal for Nola was indeed poor in retrospect as many deals in MLB can seem years after the fact. I like Alfaro's arm a bit more than you seem to and I'd make a small wager, Nola is gone by or at the deadline, I see Contreras being brought in along with Happ for depth. As for construction of the roster--I believe the lockout hindered what Preller had planned. He went after Gallo, Schwarber and Reynold--all who are lefties (Reynolds is a switch, but then so if Profar so they have 4) I don't see the issues you do--I see a team hitting league avg with most of their guys underperforming and only 2 playing above their career avgs and without Tatis. I see a team that, like every other, has dealt with significant injury yet have a great record--keeping in mind, they only hoped to be close when Tatis returned so to me, they've far exceeded expectations. They're not the Dodgers, nor will they ever be. Half the BP are guys who might not even BE on the roster if Pomeranz, Adams and Johnson hadn't gotten hurt. I've noticed a trend with some Padre fans, they expect perfection after years of mediocracy, they're out of patience and they've lost sight of the big picture.

    I'll say it right here and now--this team hasn't played it's best baseball, not even close. They will soon enough and without wholesale changes. I say that because I believe Melvin makes that much of a difference and as the Padres get healthy, strengthen their bench and BP--they will prove to be one of the best team in the NL and possibly MLB. I believe they'll make the playoffs and give LA a run to the wire like SF did last season. They have a real shot to sweep most of the post season awards--Manager of the Year, MVP, Cy Young and ROY. Will they? Probably not but the mere fact we can have that conversation--realistically--is more than any Padre fan has ever enjoyed.

    Keep being pragmatic, you'll balance my optimism and in the end I believe we both want to see them succeed.

    Keeping the Faith.
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

  10. #2120
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    Really bad blown save for Rogers tonite. 4-1 lead in the 9th and he gives up 4 runs w/o getting an out to blow the save and the game. Also blew a save earlier in the week. His job probably is still safe tho for now.

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