Defending the Flag

[onejayhawk]

In July I was told that flags fly forever and we got another one. I gave up some useful players for no one I can keep, though Gleyber Torres is close. This is what I have going into the league meetings.

16 teams, H2H, OBP and holds, 480 players on rosters. Numbers are current ADP

C -
1B -
2B - Brandon Lowe 2B, OF
3B - Wander Franco
SS - Willy Adames
MI -
CI -
OF - Ronald Acuņa
OF - Luis Robert
OF - Cedrick Mullins
OF -
Util -

SP - Garrit Cole
SP - Lance Lynn
SP - Dylan Cease
SP - Patrick Sandoval
RP - Josh Hader
RP - Liam Hendricks
RP -
P -
P -
P -

BN - Nick Wittgren
BN -
BN -
BN -
BN -
BN -
BN -

For me, this is bare bones. I have options on Gleyber Torres, Jeimer Candelario, and Joe Barlow that are reasonable but not no-brainers.

What do you think of my core hitting?

I want to try Nick Pollack's SP approach.

1. Draft FOUR starting pitchers I trust to not be droppable through the season
2. Chase upside & pitchers you can drop early instead of middling decent pitchers

Will this four SP do, or do I need another? I have the pick available, but I would rather plan to take a bat.

[Gregg]

Take the bat.

[chancellor]

Take the bat.

What he said.

And the core hitting is excellent. I'd be inclined to keep both Torres and Candelario in a league as deep as yours. The former is high risk/high reward, the latter pretty WYSIWIGish.

[onejayhawk]

That certainly covers MI and CI. I think I can still get a boring but reliable SP later, though keeping Torres means only one shot.

Come training camp, we are going to need a thread on high-risk, high-upside SP. That's what Dylan Cease was a year ago and why I have him essentially free through 2023. Below is a partial list of ADP 250+ pitchers last March. This does not even count the Josiah Grays and Cole Irvins that went undrafted even in deep leagues.

Freddy Peralta, Carlos Rodón, Alek Manoah, Trevor Rogers, Chris Sale, Shane McClanahan, Taijuan Walker, Chris Flexen, Patrick Sandoval, Logan Gilbert, Adam Wainwright, Luis Garcia, Anthony DeSclafani, Tarik Skubal, Alex Wood, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb.

[ssmallz]

I love the potential of Cease and Sandoval but they are not what I would call reliable no cut guys

[Ken]

I love the potential of Cease and Sandoval but they are not what I would call reliable no cut guys

Agree. Both guys are ~4.5 FIP guys who are borderline relevant in a 16 team league. I'd want shares of them, but they are very far away from the no-cut line.

[chancellor]

I understand the hesitation on Sandoval, but I'm all-in on Cease. He made major strides in harnessing his awesome stuff last year, with major improvements in ERA and WHIP, plays on a very good team in a weak division, has a good to great bullpen behind him, and he's only 25. And the Spider Tack ban didn't appear to impact him at all.

[Gregg]

I understand the hesitation on Sandoval, but I'm all-in on Cease. He made major strides in harnessing his awesome stuff last year, with major improvements in ERA and WHIP, plays on a very good team in a weak division, has a good to great bullpen behind him, and he's only 25. And the Spider Tack ban didn't appear to impact him at all.

Good stuff Chance. Plus 226ks in 165.2 innings. I am in on him too.

[Ken]

Regarding Cease, you guys are right, the upside is huge, even the 50% projections are good, my concern with this question of "undroppable" is the floor.

Cease's floor is limited by his control as a > 10% BB% guy.

He could be great, he could be just ~Nick Pivetta.

[onejayhawk]

I love the potential of Cease and Sandoval but they are not what I would call reliable no cut guys

Agree. Both guys are ~4.5 FIP guys who are borderline relevant in a 16 team league. I'd want shares of them, but they are very far away from the no-cut line.

I tend to agree about Sandoval, particularly because of the injury. His ADP in the low 200s reflects that. His option cost is significantly lower than his ADP equivalent, so I'll roster him unless the outlook deteriorates.

Cease, not so much. his FIP was 3.41, which is a full run better even without improvement. Even if he regresses to 4.00-ish, he's useful. He seems clear cut top-50 and we play 64 SP. In any event, he's almost free with extra years, so not cuttable short of surgery.

We seem to have something of a consensus. Cole, Lance, and Dylan will be the horses. I need to seek one more boring but reliable SP and Patrick will be the first upside speculation. With Liam and josh in the bullpen, it seems to be pretty settled. I'll see if anyone is interested in Joe Barlow. A clear-cut closer with two extra years has value.

J

[Ken]

I tend to agree about Sandoval, particularly because of the injury. His ADP in the low 200s reflects that. His option cost is significantly lower than his ADP equivalent, so I'll roster him unless the outlook deteriorates.

Cease, not so much. his FIP was 3.41, which is a full run better even without improvement. Even if he regresses to 4.00-ish, he's useful. He seems clear cut top-50 and we play 64 SP. In any event, he's almost free with extra years, so not cuttable short of surgery.

Agree I was giving 4.5 as the benchmark regarding career numbers. If you look at just last year, Cease was indeed improved and that's what makes him rosterable.

I'd caution against "top-50 and we play 64 SP" matching Pollack's SP approach. I agree that Cease is a great pitcher to have but "trust to not be droppable through the season" - I don't think 1 year where he's still struggling with control matches that description but it is close.

With Liam and josh in the bullpen, it seems to be pretty settled. I'll see if anyone is interested in Joe Barlow. A clear-cut closer with two extra years has value.

"Clear-cut closer" is definitely how you should market Barlow. In no way do I agree that's what he actually is. The Rangers bullpen changes regularly.

[onejayhawk]

Agree I was giving 4.5 as the benchmark regarding career numbers. If you look at just last year, Cease was indeed improved and that's what makes him rosterable.

I'd caution against "top-50 and we play 64 SP" matching Pollack's SP approach. I agree that Cease is a great pitcher to have but "trust to not be droppable through the season" - I don't think 1 year where he's still struggling with control matches that description but it is close.

Duly noted. When you get down to it, there are no sure things at SP and I've had worse SP3 to start a season.

"Clear-cut closer" is definitely how you should market Barlow. In no way do I agree that's what he actually is. The Rangers bullpen changes regularly.

Meh. They have been sorting cast offs and dregs looking for someone workable. They only had two closers all of last season and Ian Kennedy is 36 years old. Barlow will be 26 in 2022.

More to the point, he is recognized as a quality pitcher aside from the role.

[Ken]

Meh. They have been sorting cast offs and dregs looking for someone workable. They only had two closers all of last season and Ian Kennedy is 36 years old. Barlow will be 26 in 2022.

More to the point, he is recognized as a quality pitcher aside from the role.

They will continue sorting through castoffs too. That's how they view the position as an organization. I'd love for Barlow to keep the role and he certainly could do so, but we're talking about a guy who was not highly thought of prior to 2021 due to his lack of control (around 6BB/9).

He had a 3.45 FIP and a 4.56 xFIP last year along with just 8.4 K/9. Those aren't closer numbers. His elite results were entirely held up by the unsustainable BABIP which we've talked about in other threads.

I'm not convinced that he looked any better than LeClerc looked in 2018 (the 2019 followup was not as pretty). Similar to Jon Hernandez. I've made the mistake of rostering Rangers "closers" before, it's not a great idea.

He's a decent relief pitcher but those are a dime a dozen. I could see Nick Snyder filling a very similar role in 2022.

[onejayhawk]

I was talking about keeping Joe Barlow but it does not look like he has any job security at closer. Gleyber Torres is the opposite. He had a hell of a second half and his ADP has helium. Jeimer Candelario is fairly cheap power at the slot. So Barlow no, Torres yes, Candelario yes.

The keeper list looks like this. The round indicates the pick used to execute the option. The (#) is the draft round last February.

Round 1: Ronald Acuna (K)
Round 2: Garrett Cole (K)
Round 3: Lance Lynn (K)
Round 4: Liam Hendrix (K)
Round 5:
Round 6: Gleyber Torres (11)
Round 7: Wander Franco (11)
Round 8:
Round 9: Josh Hader (13)
Round 10`: Brandon Lowe (14)
Round 11`: Cedric Mullins Bal (w)
Round 12`: Luis Robert (16)
Round 13`: Jeimar Candelario (17)
Round 14`: Patrick Sandoval (w)
Round 15`: Willy Adames (19)
Round 16`:
Round 17`:
Round 18:
Round 19:
Round 20:
Round 21:
Round 22: Dylan Cease (26)
Round 23:
Round 24:
Round 25:
Round 26: Nick Wittgren (30)

Are there any comments before I submit this? No one has ever won this league back to back, so I want to give it my best shot.