value calculators

[The Feral Slasher]

not sure if there is a thread on this, I use Fangraphs calculator for reference. Does anyone else use a different one they can recommend.

a second question, for pitchers the league setup for daily, twice weekly, or weekly lineup changes has an impact on pitcher values. Is there a calculator that accounts for this...if not, how do people adjust for daily leagues where there may only be 9 pitcher spots, but in reality each team likely uses 11-13 pitchers ?

[The Feral Slasher]

not sure if there is a thread on this, I use Fangraphs calculator for reference. Does anyone else use a different one they can recommend.

a second question, for pitchers the league setup for daily, twice weekly, or weekly lineup changes has an impact on pitcher values. Is there a calculator that accounts for this...if not, how do people adjust for daily leagues where there may only be 9 pitcher spots, but in reality each team likely uses 11-13 pitchers ?

my main league has twice weekly lineups, so even though there are only 9 pitcher slots, I put in 11 or 12 pitchers in the calculator. Probably there exists a better calculator or a better method, would appreciate any input on this.

[Todd Zola]

The issue with streaming and valuation is, on paper, you're only using the good matchups and the calculator accounts for the whole picture.

15-20 years ago, I'd post a 1200 work reply, explaining how to adjust each projection to estimate the favorable starts and run the numbers, but it's not necessary.

Run it as normal, then once you're into the streaming section of the rankings, cross out pitchers with bad home parks or on a lower team in a tough division and focus on some of the lower ranked arms in great streaming scenarios and play the market.

[The Feral Slasher]

The issue with streaming and valuation is, on paper, you're only using the good matchups and the calculator accounts for the whole picture.

15-20 years ago, I'd post a 1200 work reply, explaining how to adjust each projection to estimate the favorable starts and run the numbers, but it's not necessary.

Run it as normal, then once you're into the streaming section of the rankings, cross out pitchers with bad home parks or on a lower team in a tough division and focus on some of the lower ranked arms in great streaming scenarios and play the market.

I probably didn't ask the question well or explain. From what I can see the Fangraphs calculator does not have an input for the frequency of scoring periods. So knowing that there are 9 pitching slots, but in reality every team uses 10-14 pitchers in our twice weekly lineups, what is the right way to input this in the calculator ? Or is there a calculator online that includes the scoring period ? Because it isn't just about the streaming pitchers, it also affects the values of all the other pitchers as well.

[Ken]

I probably didn't ask the question well or explain. From what I can see the Fangraphs calculator does not have an input for the frequency of scoring periods. So knowing that there are 9 pitching slots, but in reality every team uses 10-14 pitchers in our twice weekly lineups, what is the right way to input this in the calculator ? Or is there a calculator online that includes the scoring period ? Because it isn't just about the streaming pitchers, it also affects the values of all the other pitchers as well.

I think Todd's answer above still applies as written.

[The Feral Slasher]

I think Todd's answer above still applies as written.

Lol, ok

[Ken]

Lol, ok

I'm not sure exactly what you are looking for, unfortunately none of the big projections that come out have splits, and that's the only way to account for streaming.

But really the value of your pitchers doesn't really change much does it? So just draft them in the same order and as Todd noted, keep in mind the pitchers who may have good home or away matchups when you get to streaming types.

[The Feral Slasher]

I'm not sure exactly what you are looking for, unfortunately none of the big projections that come out have splits, and that's the only way to account for streaming.

But really the value of your pitchers doesn't really change much does it? So just draft them in the same order and as Todd noted, keep in mind the pitchers who may have good home or away matchups when you get to streaming types.

What i was looking for:

1) are there other calculators out there that are worth using as resources
2) do any of these potential other calculators have inputs for scoring periods ?
3) if not, how do people adjust the calculator inputs to account for various scoring periods and number of reserves on roster
4) I am not a total idiot, just a partial one, but yes i can figure out a way to do this on my own, just thought some people might have some inputs or comments. I can certainly look at marginal pitchers or pitchers with extreme home parks and adjust.
5) Not sure how much pitcher values change when inputs to the calculator are varied between 9-14, probably worth looking into

[The Feral Slasher]

What i was looking for:

1) are there other calculators out there that are worth using as resources
2) do any of these potential other calculators have inputs for scoring periods ?
3) if not, how do people adjust the calculator inputs to account for various scoring periods and number of reserves on roster
4) I am not a total idiot, just a partial one, but yes i can figure out a way to do this on my own, just thought some people might have some inputs or comments. I can certainly look at marginal pitchers or pitchers with extreme home parks and adjust.
5) Not sure how much pitcher values change when inputs to the calculator are varied between 9-14, probably worth looking into

regarding point 5, the change from 9 pitchers to 14 has a substantial affect on all pitcher values, not just the streamers. So what assumptions do people make when they put in the number of pitchers ? Because it has a significant impact on what the calculator spits out as values.

[Todd Zola]

One of the tenets of conventional valuation, which is one of the major flaws, is assuming the draft-worthy pool is active all season.

The draft-worthy pool is composed of exactly enough players to legally fill everyone's roster. The lowest price is $1 and everyone is scaled up assuming a sum-zero economy, using up the entire available budget.

For example, in a 12-team league with 14 hitters, 9 pitchers and a $260 budget, there are 168 batters and 108 pitchers priced at $1 or more with the sum of all 276 being $3120 (12 x 260).

When the game was invented, the rules were you couldn't reserve a player unless he was hurt or sent to the minors. Even then, the above wasn't perfect, but it is closer than today's rules with free movement between active to reserve, FAAB/waivers, daily moves, etc.

The answer is no -- I have not seen a calculator rigged for more frequent moves.

The scientist in me has wheel's spinning as to how it can be adjusted, but the aging old fart in me says don't waste your time, knowing the room and playing the market is the more practical approach.

[Todd Zola]

Re. #5 -- increasing the number of pitchers increases the number in the draft worthy pool. Distributing the same budget allocated to more pitchers obviously lowers the price for each.

[The Feral Slasher]

One of the tenets of conventional valuation, which is one of the major flaws, is assuming the draft-worthy pool is active all season.

The draft-worthy pool is composed of exactly enough players to legally fill everyone's roster. The lowest price is $1 and everyone is scaled up assuming a sum-zero economy, using up the entire available budget.

For example, in a 12-team league with 14 hitters, 9 pitchers and a $260 budget, there are 168 batters and 108 pitchers priced at $1 or more with the sum of all 276 being $3120 (12 x 260).

When the game was invented, the rules were you couldn't reserve a player unless he was hurt or sent to the minors. Even then, the above wasn't perfect, but it is closer than today's rules with free movement between active to reserve, FAAB/waivers, daily moves, etc.

The answer is no -- I have not seen a calculator rigged for more frequent moves.

The scientist in me has wheel's spinning as to how it can be adjusted, but the aging old fart in me says don't waste your time, knowing the room and playing the market is the more practical approach.

Thanks, and I do appreciate your input. I guess my point was that just putting in 9 pitchers because that is how many slots are active does not provide the same accuracy for daily and weekly leagues due to the streaming. I'm probably the only one who cares.

[The Feral Slasher]

Re. #5 -- increasing the number of pitchers increases the number in the draft worthy pool. Distributing the same budget allocated to more pitchers obviously lowers the price for each.

agreed, so instead of putting in 9 pitcher slots like you would for a weekly league, perhaps one should put in more pitcher slots in the calculator if you are in a league with daily lineup changes ?

[The Feral Slasher]

The scientist in me has wheel's spinning as to how it can be adjusted, but the aging old fart in me says don't waste your time, knowing the room and playing the market is the more practical approach.

this is what I was getting at partly. Not looking for something exact or to spend a lifetime running calculations, but surely there should be some reasonable approach to adjusting calculator inputs if you have a daily or weekly league ?

[Todd Zola]

this is what I was getting at partly. Not looking for something exact or to spend a lifetime running calculations, but surely there should be some reasonable approach to adjusting calculator inputs if you have a daily or weekly league ?

Some approach? Yes.

Reasonable approach? No.

Honestly, projection and valuation methodology are so flawed, it's better to spend the time learning the player pool, devising a strategy, finding the best players for that strategy and adjusting to the room/market.

For example, James Paxton will not be in my lineup every week. Jokes about health aside, if Seattle uses a six-man rotation, that's 26 starts. Say 10 of 13 are favorable home affairs and maybe 6 of 13 road starts are nice (such as at LAA, at TEX - both good pitching parks and lesser lineups). So we're at 16 times I'd use Paxton. I'd need to adjust my projection for just those 16 starts - and do that for EVERY pitcher - and even then the whole "active for the entire season" thing skews the number.

Or, I can see my flawed price is $12 in AL only, try to get him under that, but I'd rather pay full boat on Paxton if needed than someone in a less advantageous scenario at a similar rank.

You're buying Paxton, but paying for a roster spot, of which Paxton will occupy maybe 16 times with someone else the other 10 weeks.

One way to get fool valuation is project him for 26 starts, which assumes the guy in that spot the other 10 weeks is similar, but when you do that for everyone, replacement is goofy.

This is why I say no to the reasonable part.