Power Ball and Mega Millions

[Ken]

Looks like I got zero numbers on the Mega. I haven't checked the payout chart - how much did I win?

Within a buck or two of EV. good job.

[umjewman]

Looks like I got zero numbers on the Mega. I haven't checked the payout chart - how much did I win?

[The Feral Slasher]

actually that's correct. If you buy enough tickets you'll win.

Not according to Sour Mather

[Ken]

Progress! We got one number correct (10).

We just have to try harder!!

actually that's correct. If you buy enough tickets you'll win.

[Gregg]

Problem solved. I just noticed my wife has to run an errand. I gave her 3 bucks and told her she had to kick one in. Please stop and get one ticket each for Mega and Power. She said why? Umm because we are in this deep and I need to see it to the end...duh.

She then told me she has never bought a lottery ticket and doesn't even no what to do. So I explained the very intricate steps to the process. Rolling of the eyes ensued, but she did say she would do it.

As she was leaving I used my Uncle Lewis (Christmas Vacation) voice and yelled Don't forget my lottery tickets! She yelled back in her Uncle Lewis voice I won't!.

Already got my 4 bucks worth of entertainment today.

Progress! We got one number correct (10).

We just have to try harder!!

[heyelander]

splitting the prize would seem to be far more likely when it reaches this level of frenzy.

my speculation would be that there is a critical mass of size of jackpot vs. amount of new tickets bought that would have peaked the EV at a good 7-10 days ago.

while most people now just buy a random ticket, the EV improves slightly (ok, infinitesimally) if you have at least one number above 31.

then if your ticket wins, every customer who picks numbers solely based on dates is eliminated. the Princeton professor taught me that one.

so my picking the numbers of sixers players is a losing bet eh?

[Sour Masher]

Pshh, you don't know maths like me. It would still be 50-50, cuz I'd still either win or I'd lose. No matter how many tickets I bought, it would be 50-50. That is why I just bought 1.

There should be a prize for getting no numbers. That has to be harder than getting them all, right?

[Sour Masher]

You should have bought 2 tickets. Then u couldn't lose

Pshh, you don't know maths like me. It would still be 50-50, cuz I'd still either win or I'd lose. No matter how many tickets I bought, it would be 50-50. That is why I just bought 1.

[The Feral Slasher]

I got the winning ticket right here. I figure I have a 50-50 chance--either I win or I lose, 50-50. How can I lose with those odds? Plus I want to win really bad and Willy Wonka taught me that means I am a shoo-in.

You should have bought 2 tickets. Then u couldn't lose

[Sour Masher]

I got the winning ticket right here. I figure I have a 50-50 chance--either I win or I lose, 50-50. How can I lose with those odds? Plus I want to win really bad and Willy Wonka taught me that means I am a shoo-in.

[Judge Jude]

splitting the prize would seem to be far more likely when it reaches this level of frenzy.

my speculation would be that there is a critical mass of size of jackpot vs. amount of new tickets bought that would have peaked the EV at a good 7-10 days ago.

while most people now just buy a random ticket, the EV improves slightly (ok, infinitesimally) if you have at least one number above 31.

then if your ticket wins, every customer who picks numbers solely based on dates is eliminated. the Princeton professor taught me that one.

[Ken]

actually, with the mega-millions jackpot at 850 million and your odds of winning being 1 in 303 million, and tickets costing $2, there's a positive EV on buying tickets right now!

I guess you need to calculate in the odds of splitting the prize, and there are taxes... but it's probably better than break-even.

Funny I just had the exact same conversation with my wife. I asked her to grab a ticket while she was out. She said "I thought you don't play b/c it's just a tax on people who don't understand math". And I explained that I only play when it's a positive EV (or close)

[heyelander]

"The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math."

actually, with the mega-millions jackpot at 850 million and your odds of winning being 1 in 303 million, and tickets costing $2, there's a positive EV on buying tickets right now!

I guess you need to calculate in the odds of splitting the prize, and there are taxes... but it's probably better than break-even.

[Gregg]

If the good Lord wanted us to walk 7 blocks in the cold, he would not have had us invent cars .

Problem solved. I just noticed my wife has to run an errand. I gave her 3 bucks and told her she had to kick one in. Please stop and get one ticket each for Mega and Power. She said why? Umm because we are in this deep and I need to see it to the end...duh.

She then told me she has never bought a lottery ticket and doesn't even no what to do. So I explained the very intricate steps to the process. Rolling of the eyes ensued, but she did say she would do it.

As she was leaving I used my Uncle Lewis (Christmas Vacation) voice and yelled Don't forget my lottery tickets! She yelled back in her Uncle Lewis voice I won't!.

Already got my 4 bucks worth of entertainment today.

[Sour Masher]

I have not. Since I did last week I almost feel the need to see it through. But it is cold outside and nearest place to purchase is 7 blocks away. What to do what to do.

If the good Lord wanted us to walk 7 blocks in the cold, he would not have had us invent cars .