Originally posted by chancellor
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostLove ya, Chance, but you are really cherry picking when you claim numbers don't lie here. Revo is right, there are three anti-vaxxer camps, and you are right, that two of those camps, AAs and young people skew left. However, there is another number you are ignoring here. All of the same polling data very clearly and significantly indicates that Dems are far more likely to be vaccinated and get vaccinated than Repubs. It is not close.
However, where I differ is that, somehow, only right-wingers are the sole anti-vaxxers out there. The age demographics just don't work. As age goes up, vaccination rate clearly goes up, and at 65+, very significantly. Younger adults strongly lean liberal.
And of course there's politics in play. Did you not read that I said "If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?" I underlined it this time for emphasis.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by ironfist View PostYou were doing fine up until here. It is absurd to think that governors of deep red states give a damn about what could appeal to African Americans. The same governors who are doing their best to get voter restriction laws passed that would impact them the most, right?
So, yes, absolutely, every red state governor gives a damn about what appeals to African Americans.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostWhile this is a popular media-driven illusion, the data driven facts sure don't support the point, overall. Sure, there's a fair number of loudmouths on the right that oppose vaccines and mask mandates. But overall? The oldest age groups - 65+ are both more conservative than the norm AND about 84% vaccinated. 50-64 is over 70% vaccinated. Young adults - who lean more liberal than the norm - are much less vaccinated. The age 25-39 age group is only about 54% vaccinated, age 18-24 notably less.
The African-American population, overwhelmingly Democratic voters, have the lowest vaccination rate by racial demographic. And it's not really close.
Data source, in case you're wondering, is the CDC itself: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...raphics-trends"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostYou keep bringing this up, and you keep drawing an incorrect conclusion. The numbers show that Republicans and Trump voters are far more vaccine hesitant than Democrats. The fact that some groups that lean Democratic are also more vaccine hesitant does not prove the point that you keep claiming it proves.
That's it. It's more about a fear of change than anything else, and Conservative mindset fearing change forces them to dig in instead of confronting reality.
So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.Last edited by chancellor; 09-15-2021, 12:54 PM.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostAnd, naturally, I disagree. Here's the point I differed with Teenwolf on:
Yet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.
So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.---------------------------------------------
Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostThat's pure foolishness. Every politician of every stripe cares about what appeals to every voter group in their state or district, and has polling to carve out just about any demographic you can think about on just about every major topic that is out there. Every politician of every stripe yearns for the opportunity to find topics that will keep their base happy while potentially carving out votes from demographics that typically oppose them.
So, yes, absolutely, every red state governor gives a damn about what appeals to African Americans.
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I have heard that Illinois is a very large Democratic state. The Gov has a mask mandate and yet I see that the vast majority of people are ignoring the mask mandate. Why would this be such an issue.
I do have Repub friends that are anti mask as well as anti vax. This is confusing to me as well.
I have had covid, I have been vaccinated twice I am wearing a mask when out in public. How hard is that?
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostAnd, naturally, I disagree. Here's the point I differed with Teenwolf on:
Yet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.
So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.
I mean, the "fear of change" part, I don't know what I think about whether that is what drives conservatives, and maybe that was the main point you were trying to address? But "conservative" does seem to correlate with vaccine hesitancy, at least insofar as a Republican voting history in presidential elections is a good proxy for conservative. Being a Republican voter was the second strongest factor after being a Trump voter for vaccine hesitancy. Clearly, Trump loyalty is the biggest factor, and perhaps that speaks to other things beyond a conservative mindset like susceptibility to conspiracy theories, anti-science skepticism, distrust of authority, racist/xenophobic beliefs, lack of education, and so on. But conservative political beliefs are also a marker for vaccine hesitancy, and you have implied in the past, and I thought you were implying here, that a liberal political mindset (as measured by Democratic voting history) is actually correlated with vaccine hesitancy in the U.S., which is not borne out by the data."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostYet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.
So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.
One way to get to the numbers you are quoting would be like this, imagining that there are 100 people in each group you reference.
18-29 age group
59 Dem of whom 36 are vaccinated (61%)
32 Repub of whom 10 are vaccinated (31%)
50-64 age group
45 Dem of whom 37.4 are vaccinated (83%)
55 Repub of whom 34 are vaccinated (62%)
That's one way for it to be true that both younger age and Republican voting preference are correlated with vaccine hesitancy, and yet the more Democratic age grouping has a lower vaccination rate.
I'd have to go back and find that study to see the actual numbers, but it has to be something similar to this to produce the effect you're seeing."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostOne way to get to the numbers you are quoting would be like this, imagining that there are 100 people in each group you reference.
18-29 age group
59 Dem of whom 36 are vaccinated (61%)
32 Repub of whom 10 are vaccinated (31%)
50-64 age group
45 Dem of whom 37.4 are vaccinated (83%)
55 Repub of whom 34 are vaccinated (62%)
That's one way for it to be true that both younger age and Republican voting preference are correlated with vaccine hesitancy, and yet the more Democratic age grouping has a lower vaccination rate.
I'd have to go back and find that study to see the actual numbers, but it has to be something similar to this to produce the effect you're seeing.
If most quibbles are quabbles, and most quabbles are quizzles, then most quibbles are quizzles.
a) True
b) False
c) Not enough information
Lots of people fall for the false equivalence.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostOh, I pretty much agree with revo on the three groups. Thought I'd made that clear by saying "Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration." Umjewman is likely correct that many of the 50+ age group that are not vaccinated will be strongly conservative. It's a significant part of that population.
However, where I differ is that, somehow, only right-wingers are the sole anti-vaxxers out there. The age demographics just don't work. As age goes up, vaccination rate clearly goes up, and at 65+, very significantly. Younger adults strongly lean liberal.
And of course there's politics in play. Did you not read that I said "If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?" I underlined it this time for emphasis.
Now, if you are saying that right-wingers are not the only anti-vaxxers out there, of course you are right about that. There is no denying that young people as a group and AAs as a group are vaccinated less than other age groups or ethnicities. But the right has made the anti-vax and anti-mask positions a political one, perhaps in reaction to the left touting these things. And they are both by far the largest group of anti-vaxxers and the most outspoken group of anti-vaxxers. That is both dangerous and dumb.
My issue is that I really don't understand why and I'd love know why. I understand why young people are not getting vaccinated. As ironfist said, it is because they think they are not really at a major risk from this disease (and, to an extent, they are right). It makes total sense to me that the population that is at a much higher risk of dying or being severely impacted by COVID are also the most likely to be vaccinated. And if you look at the history of how our government has lied to and betrayed the AA community, it also makes sense to me that they have more hesitancy than other groups to get vaccinated. But I see no reason why vaccination should be a left/right issue. I really don't get it and I'd love for someone to explain it to me. I did see TW's theory on this, and it makes sense to an extent, but I can't buy that it is just or primarily about an aversion to change in this case. Maybe that is part of it, and maybe a general antagonism to absolute faith in scientific consensus is a part of it...I really can't get a good handle on it. But I hope we can all agree what seems patently obvious to me--that more people on the left are pro-vaccine and masking and more people on the right are anti-vaccine and masking.Last edited by Sour Masher; 09-15-2021, 06:56 PM.
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