Armed Conflict

[GwynnInTheHall]

I thought this could use a re-set. it seems a likely outcome if the Nation continues down this path of States essentially telling the Feds to go f*ck themselves and the SCOTUS becoming a branch of the GOP/Cristian Conservatives. I can't see continuing without more and more protests and eventual violence.

I hope it doesn't, but I'm not seeing a clear path to avoiding it's inevitability.

Edit to add--Jan 6th.

[TranaGreg]

I'm starting to come around to your perspective on this after reading a social media post tonight -- about a sheriff who says he'll "uphold the constitution" if the federal government tries to confiscate guns out of his county. The comments were littered with people who at least claim to be ready to act the way you suggested.

just to reiterate, I don't think this would escalate into a large conflict, for the reasons stated above ... but I can certainly see skirmishes breaking out, and certain groups on both sides using them to further their own agendas.

[Sour Masher]

I'm starting to come around to your perspective on this after reading a social media post tonight -- about a sheriff who says he'll "uphold the constitution" if the federal government tries to confiscate guns out of his county. The comments were littered with people who at least claim to be ready to act the way you suggested.

Well, that is a different issue, though. It is why I think Beto's mandatory buy back is a bridge too far, and a bad idea to even suggest. I don't see revolution for Trump, but could see it over mandated gun confiscations. Hell, there was so much unfounded fear of that under Obama it led to record gun sales.

[Ken]

fair point ... I was thinking of third world countries historically ...not sure there are any examples in a first world setting. And ultimately this is why this won't come to pass IMO - the majority of folks are well fed, have houses and cars ... most won't risk everything for a principle.

I'm starting to come around to your perspective on this after reading a social media post tonight -- about a sheriff who says he'll "uphold the constitution" if the federal government tries to confiscate guns out of his county. The comments were littered with people who at least claim to be ready to act the way you suggested.

[ironfist]

I could definitely see a rise in terrorist attacks from these cultists.

[gcstomp]

the unite the right rally, charlottesville, va, from aug. 11 - aug. 12th 2017. there was open fighting in the streets, armed militia types in uniform and confederate and nazi flags/symbols + signage openly chanting racist and antisemetic garbage as well as dozens of instances of violence on small scale, besides the death there were instances of people getting pepper sprayed, attacked with bats, etc.

The police were around, visible, but in ordered stand down mode. The real law enforcement was taken out of equation.

This was small scale, but it is that easy, it only takes say the governor of a red state to say to hell with these people trying to take down my president. Gov can issue a stand down to all law enforcement, tell them to go home and watch after their families. At same time he can back channel that the coast is clear for whatever to happen to these unamerican scum who want to invalidate the election by going after trump. nothing need to be explicit, just the opening is enough for a cascading effect to occur.

if this happens same day that trump is impeached, or say, trump loses election but declares results invalid because he says cheating occurred, never mind truth, this would be that day so many have been waiting for like the ump, if not actually prepped for and this is not far fetched that there is more than 1 gun for every person in this country.

[TranaGreg]

Yeah I hear what you are saying but that sounds like something out of a movie script - are there recent examples of this happening on a large scale?

fair point ... I was thinking of third world countries historically ...not sure there are any examples in a first world setting. And ultimately this is why this won't come to pass IMO - the majority of folks are well fed, have houses and cars ... most won't risk everything for a principle.

[Ken]

Just on this point, it's not as black and white as it seems tho - often in these situations uprisings are positioned as upholding the constitution or whatever it is ... you know, the whole "true patriot" angle. So people don't view themselves as breaking the law, rather they view themselves as guardians of the constitution, and that they are the only ones standing up for the country.

I'm hopeful that this would be a really tiny percentage as well.

Yeah I hear what you are saying but that sounds like something out of a movie script - are there recent examples of this happening on a large scale?

[TranaGreg]

Exactly. For this to happen you'd need a) an overwhelmingly large portion of those individuals to be in support of the rogue element, and b) those same individuals willing to do the opposite of their directive, which is to uphold the law and maintain peace.

Complain all you want about their conservative leaning political views, but the police and military can be boiled down to strict rule based ethics and order following. That's in direct contrast to (b).
...

Just on this point, it's not as black and white as it seems tho - often in these situations uprisings are positioned as upholding the constitution or whatever it is ... you know, the whole "true patriot" angle. So people don't view themselves as breaking the law, rather they view themselves as guardians of the constitution, and that they are the only ones standing up for the country.

I'm hopeful that this would be a really tiny percentage as well.

[Ken]

The only time stuff gets really scary is when those trained and equipped to keep the peace and engage in war decide to back the rogue element.

Exactly. For this to happen you'd need a) an overwhelmingly large portion of those individuals to be in support of the rogue element, and b) those same individuals willing to do the opposite of their directive, which is to uphold the law and maintain peace.

Complain all you want about their conservative leaning political views, but the police and military can be boiled down to strict rule based ethics and order following. That's in direct contrast to (b).

And as far as supporting the cause, I'd bet that it's closer to 60-40 or 70-30 in those groups rather than an overwhelming majority. I wish I had something more recent, but here's an article about active military support of Trump - when written last year, approval and disapproval were basically neck and neck -- https://www.militarytimes.com/news/p...ew-poll-shows/

Was there ever an issue with law enforcement not following their directives in the Bundy standoffs? That's the most recent "militia" type situation I can think of.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, I agree with the consensus. The only time stuff gets really scary is when those trained and equipped to keep the peace and engage in war decide to back the rogue element. Despite some of those folks liking Trump, I don't see that happening. So yeah, definitely some small scale riots, some isolated cases of violence, but in the end, not wide spread or large organized movements and not as much of it as Trump would hope for (I have no doubt he'd take pride and joy in folks going out to commit violence to keep him in office).

[In the Corn]

I think it will be really tough for any of the militia to really unite and coordinate something that couldn't be tamped down my the military and the reserves.

I don't get the impression from what is out there right now about many of the previous military leaders that Trump has a whole lot of top generals who he can enlist to have the military keep him in power.

[DMT]

People talk a lot on Twitter and the internet and puff out their chests, but it almost always turns out to be idle threats by keyboard warriors. After the 2016 election there were protests and even some riots (Oakland and Portland) and law enforcement stepped in and eventually the situations were diffused. I suspect the exact same thing will happen again regardless of whether or not Trump loses or the Blue team loses. Some isolated vandalism, maybe a riot or two, but I think visions of rednecks running around shooting people because Trump lost is hyperbolic.

Agreed.

[Ken]

I'm sure there would be some crazies, with some isolated incidents, but I can't see how it would be dramatically different from how those same crazies reacted to Obama's election.

[nots]

is that because you see law enforcement upholding the law should a few crazies get motivated to do some stupid shit? Or that you don't think that there are any crazies out there?

People talk a lot on Twitter and the internet and puff out their chests, but it almost always turns out to be idle threats by keyboard warriors. After the 2016 election there were protests and even some riots (Oakland and Portland) and law enforcement stepped in and eventually the situations were diffused. I suspect the exact same thing will happen again regardless of whether or not Trump loses or the Blue team loses. Some isolated vandalism, maybe a riot or two, but I think visions of rednecks running around shooting people because Trump lost is hyperbolic.