2018 Midterm Election Thread

[revo]

Young & new voter turnout in early voting so far has been "staggering":

[madducks]

The sleeping giant has been awakened. Thanks Trump!

[swampdragon]

Hopefully all of those youth votes are counted - especially in places like Georgia and Texas

[Gregg]

This is the most important election in our Nation's History.

[B-Fly]

This is the most important election in our Nation's History.

I always wonder when people say something is the most important in history or the most divisive in history, etc, whether they've thought through our history before making the statement, or if it's just hyperbole. While this is big as midterm elections go, particularly if Mueller turns up something reasonably impeachable, I don't see how a midterm election can be the most important in our nation's history. Is it more important than the 2016 election when Trump won the presidency and the GOP both chambers of Congress? More important the 2008 election when Barack Obama became the first African-American president in history and the Democrats won both chambers of Congress? Is it more important than the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860? Jefferson over Adams and Burr in 1800?

That historical skepticism noted, I do think these midterms are super important and I hope we have turnout to reflect that.

[DMT]

I think Gregg was being facetious again, but I agree that these are the most important mid-term elections we've had in our lifetimes.

[frae]

The odds continue to trend to a split congress. 538 Classic model hits another highmark this afternoon with it currently at 87.6 - 12.4 with their projected gain at +39. The closer we inch toward 90% the closer we are to there needing to be a major polling error in many districts. Trump Clinton was 71-29 going in for reference.

Senate sits at 83.2 - 16.8. Not much of a change same clump of states will decide the final outcome. The most likely outcome on 538 is the net gain 0. I'll keep hoping for the net gain of 1 for the Democrats. So many close things need to go right, but this is where I root with my heart.

Gov. races might be the most interesting only because the outcome of the House and Senate control seem locked down, 538 had a really nice article up today on these races so I'll just link that...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-are-likely-to-make-big-gains-in-governors-races/

Can't wait, let's get some numbers!

[gcstomp]

tomorrow will be interesting.

turnout for vote is/will be staggeringly high relative to past midterms because its been a revelation, these past 2 years. the operating system of the U.S. construct is not infallible, there are no kiddie bumpers on the bowling lane to insure we will get this at least some percent correct.

many people held belief that it didnt really matter one way or the other, vote/dont vote/protest for zero chance indy vote, politicians are all same. they all lie. now the impossible happened, a ruthlessly self absorbed ignorant and racist person ascended highest office, via a near impossible sequence of events, but most important was the majority of eligible voters stayed home because, again, whatever, they are all the same. so it was thought at the time.

it has been revealed that we live in a space where there is such a large percent (a minority of pop, but still staggeringly large) that is agreeable to this current condition is saddening and maddening. that we can be living in historically unique, and outlandish times while at same time so many downplay this as just another day, and defend constantly the indefensible, that is some messed up kind of dread soup.

[Gregg]

I think Gregg was being facetious again, but I agree that these are the most important mid-term elections we've had in our lifetimes.

I was going more for hyperbole. But I can see where you would think it facetious.

[heyelander]

The sleeping giant has been awakened. Thanks Trump!

yeah, we've gone from 5 voters in that demographic, to 20...

[Judge Jude]

Right-wing radio talk show host Mike Gallagher today: "I've got a really good feeling about this election....."

Callers then all agree. so there you have it (!)

[onejayhawk]

If I understand the narrative it goes, "Polls are now news, therefore polls are manipulated to yield the desired news story. However, shortly before the election the polls get more honest to avoid looking foolish. Hence, the Republicans would poll better if the polling was fair and will finish better in the election." It's not a good narrative, but there it is. There likely some crumbs of truth in it.

In any event, Republicans have finished better than expected for the last half dozen elections. If that continues, they could hold the House but I doubt it. They have outperformed in the 2-3% range and they need about a 5% edge this time. What would be interesting is if the Democrats win a smaller House Majority than the Republicans win in the Senate. That could happen if the Democrats pick up 26 or less. RCP has the mean pickup at 25.5.

J

[frae]

If I understand the narrative it goes, "Polls are now news, therefore polls are manipulated to yield the desired news story. However, shortly before the election the polls get more honest to avoid looking foolish. Hence, the Republicans would poll better if the polling was fair and will finish better in the election." It's not a good narrative, but there it is. There likely some crumbs of truth in it.

In any event, Republicans have finished better than expected for the last half dozen elections. If that continues, they could hold the House but I doubt it. They have outperformed in the 2-3% range and they need about a 5% edge this time. What would be interesting is if the Democrats win a smaller House Majority than the Republicans win in the Senate. That could happen if the Democrats pick up 26 or less. RCP has the mean pickup at 25.5.

J

Set me a line for a bet for house pickups. I'll call it 30.5 since I was saying 32 for a long time and you are saying using RCP 25.5.

[frae]

OK time to make picks I guess.

The House - Democrats gain 35 seats, I won't go district by district, but there are some fun races to watch out there.

The Senate - My house projection is not overly optimistic, but since I want to be a full on cheerleader here I'll take Democrats gain 1 seat. I can't guess based on the evidence present that Beto or Bredesen win, but I will be cheering for that. What I will project is all the Likely/lean and tossups on 538

Dems win - NJ, WV, MT, FL, AZ, Mizzou, and NV. My confidence is probably in that order. So those are 2 gains for the Democrats in AZ and NV.

Reps win - ND,TX, TN, and MS (there will be a runoff but the Dems won't get a majority tonight to eliminate that and then they will lose in the runoff.) . 1 Gain for the Republicans.

I've seen the stats that 18-29 voting is up in TN and TX, but this is one of those things that you need to show me with results before I am going to throw out models saying how unlikely it is. That said I do think it is likely that Beto has closed it to 3-4 points which is pretty damn impressive.

Ok Govenors this one is crazy to project but here goes, I'll draw the line at 8/10 races and use the deluxe model of 538 here...

Democrats win - Oregon, CT, FL, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Kansas because it is close enough to happen.

Republicans win - Oklahoma, Alaska, South Dakota, and Georgia.

The Georgia race is the one I am most interested in. The last reputable poll there had Kemp +2, but a female black candidate could bring voters we don't count as likely voters. I think IA, OH, WI, NV, KS, SD, and GA are all going to be 3 or less points and that will be within the margin of error of most polls we have seen. So anything could happen there, but the good news for Democrats is outside of CT and Oregon which are fairly safe they are playing offense here unlike the Senate. So any of these wins are pickups and it is vital that Democrats start having more influence at the state level.

Ok that's it we will see how it goes. I had hernia surgery yesterday so I will be on my ass watching The West Wing a lot of the day until I switch over to political coverage this evening. Get out there and vote guys.

[TranaGreg]

happy voting day.