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*** VD 15 Commentary Thread ***

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  • Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    I tried to hand it to you picking Hampton. Dan Haren would have got me 4 more points.
    Yea, I assumed you were picking him once I took Felix.
    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
    - Terence McKenna

    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

    Comment


    • And congrats to Jake on not finishing last in his rookie VD! Not to mention destroying Ws and Ks!
      If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
      - Terence McKenna

      Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

      How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

      Comment


      • Originally posted by DMT View Post
        And congrats to Jake on not finishing last in his rookie VD! Not to mention destroying Ws and Ks!
        Woot !

        Why do you hate closers Jake ?
        ---------------------------------------------
        Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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        The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
        George Orwell, 1984

        Comment


        • Originally posted by cavebird View Post
          Congrats to Johnny---well executed plan, and nothing is better than tanking two categories and getting 6 points in both of them anyway. Well done to Controller Jacobs and Feral as well.
          Following your projections is a bit like riding a roller coaster ! And I don't have to pay anything to ride
          ---------------------------------------------
          Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
          ---------------------------------------------
          The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
          George Orwell, 1984

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Controller Jacobs View Post
            Congrats johnny
            Well done. That was a hellluva team you drafted. I was gambling on my strategy giving me the edge, because i felt you edged me on player-to-player value all the way ... and we overlapped a lot.

            That McGriff pick was almost a winner. I completely missed that ... don't know how. I thought it was a comfortable win after Feral missed Haren, until I saw McGriff - "f^&^! what? is that a legal pick!?!". Decided to just keep quiet after that and let the chips fall where they may.

            Must have had "Contempt" filtered out when I was collating your potential picks. I would maybe have gone Zito instead of Zernial if I saw that. I figured that pitching numbers would be a bigger battleground than hitting (W's K's and ratios were all very close), so I went pitching with my WC instead of hitting. As things turned out, this was probably an error, but at the time it seemed obvious to go pitching. I lost a lot of points to other peoples hitting selections. I'll check that later.

            Another great battle!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
              I tried to hand it to you picking Hampton. Dan Haren would have got me 4 more points.
              I relaxed after you missed Haren ... thought I had it until "Fred McGriff". Then I thought I'd lost it.

              That was a great team you drafted. Don't think you could have won even with Haren, but i feel that maybe you missed something along the way. Maybe sticking with value picks too long? Following projections too much? ... they are almost always wrong in any letter format. In my experience, it's always better to focus on balancing your team in the context of points targets.

              Well played

              Comment


              • Originally posted by johnnya24 View Post
                I relaxed after you missed Haren ... thought I had it until "Fred McGriff". Then I thought I'd lost it.

                That was a great team you drafted. Don't think you could have won even with Haren, but i feel that maybe you missed something along the way. Maybe sticking with value picks too long? Following projections too much? ... they are almost always wrong in any letter format. In my experience, it's always better to focus on balancing your team in the context of points targets.

                Well played
                thanks...yeah I stuck to value a bit long, missed on a decent catcher and just could not find any counting stats for about the last 7 rounds. I didnt do projections at all, I just misjudged what would be left for me at the end... I actually had a 0.1 point win with Haren when I projected the last round, which was why I was so pissed that I grabbed Hampton by mistake. uuugggg.....anyway great job, and glad this is done. I need a bit of a break
                ---------------------------------------------
                Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
                ---------------------------------------------
                The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
                George Orwell, 1984

                Comment


                • Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
                  thanks...yeah I stuck to value a bit long, missed on a decent catcher and just could not find any counting stats for about the last 7 rounds. I didnt do projections at all, I just misjudged what would be left for me at the end... I actually had a 0.1 point win with Haren when I projected the last round, which was why I was so pissed that I grabbed Hampton by mistake. uuugggg.....anyway great job, and glad this is done. I need a bit of a break
                  the pitching dynamics from Jake and Mookie helped didn't help me at all either. I already picked my ratio strength early so I needed to find numbers...and they grabbed a lot of them. Plus gave you some cushion in Career ratios/saves. These things are soooooooo close that just a player or two matters
                  ---------------------------------------------
                  Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
                  ---------------------------------------------
                  The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
                  George Orwell, 1984

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
                    the pitching dynamics from Jake and Mookie helped didn't help me at all either. I already picked my ratio strength early so I needed to find numbers...and they grabbed a lot of them. Plus gave you some cushion in Career ratios/saves. These things are soooooooo close that just a player or two matters
                    besides missing on a catcher i think i should have maybe punted career RBI or something like that. Somehow I just was not able to compete there and I spent a lot of effort trying to. This is a tough game.
                    ---------------------------------------------
                    Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
                    ---------------------------------------------
                    The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
                    George Orwell, 1984

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by cavebird View Post
                      Congrats to Johnny---well executed plan, and nothing is better than tanking two categories and getting 6 points in both of them anyway. Well done to Controller Jacobs and Feral as well.
                      thx.

                      It wasn't a "punt" / Tank, more like a "semi-punt". Part of the upside of the strategy is that you can get points from ratio punters and people who are forced to pick lower ratio guys in the late game. Guys like Moose, Hampton, Vazquez etc always go late in the draft because they yield more points, so you can sneak points here also.

                      The downside of the strategy is that you are competing for players that everyone else wants, unlike real punt strategies. So I had to devote half of my early picks to pitching. That means my hitting will be weaker.

                      The novel part of the strategy this time was Bradley and King. The goal was to grab Bradley, get a couple of non-obvious pitchers inbetween to disguise the strat, then bookend with King. That's 1158IP of 1.43 and 0.880 (not including Tiant!). The plan was then to go back to hitting and hope that all those IP of those ratios could hold. But I then picked Leonard ... which I felt might be too conservative. Worked out in the end. Leonard was probably worth it in hindsight. Though my hitting was far from perfect.

                      Comment


                      • crap, closed my spreadsheet without saving, before I did final updates. Did I lose?
                        I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by heyelander View Post
                          crap, closed my spreadsheet without saving, before I did final updates. Did I lose?
                          maybe just go back and type in all the picks manully, relive the excitement and joy
                          ---------------------------------------------
                          Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
                          ---------------------------------------------
                          The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
                          George Orwell, 1984

                          Comment


                          • Also, following a trend I've been looking at for a long time (because of my aversion to early game QUIZY closers): Izzy and Urbina in the 1-2 teams.

                            Picking those early game QUIZY closers always seems to pay off in the late game. There is some intangible variant here that typical "value" calculations doesn't capture.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
                              besides missing on a catcher i think i should have maybe punted career RBI or something like that. Somehow I just was not able to compete there and I spent a lot of effort trying to. This is a tough game.
                              I dunno ... I thought Zunino was a good pick.

                              Maybe you didn't accumulate enough career numbers from Uggla to Edmonds ... despite all being very good value picks. You looked like you might still pull it back with that great runs of picks from Simmons to Cronin.

                              And don't forget, you were almost up with the 1-2 teams in points with the Haren pick. There isn't that much more headroom up there.

                              Comment


                              • Also props to DMT. He looked like he could contend right up to the end ... got his pitching balance all wrong IMO, or else he'd have had a great chance ... everything else was looking in great shape. I remember thinking Charlie Sweeney was a completely unnecessary pick. That one pick probably cost you a legit chance of winning.

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