Jean Segura vs Brad Miller

[onejayhawk]

This is from a dialog in the Brewers thread. The question is value at cost.

Where are you guys valuing Segura this year? I have seen him fro the 20s to the 90s. I am inclined to take his second half as the floor, First half as the ceiling and full season as accurate.

Mind you, I really hope I'm wrong here, but both first half as ceiling and full season as accurate are likely overvaluing him. IMO, he's in the Andrus/Altuve class - 35-40 SBs, .650 - .700 OPS, 4-7 HR, with some upside in the SBs if he increases his walk rate. I don't think he'll carry the BA of either, likely he'll be more in the .270-.275 range.

So you rate him a solid contributor rather than a star. Something like

500 AB, .281/.327/.354, 6 HR, 42 SB

Those are his July stats expanded to a full season.

Fangraphs gives
Steamer - 511 AB .281/.324/.407, 10 HR, 30 SB
Oliver - 561 AB .297/.334/.431, 12 HR, 42 SB

Other than speed, those are very like Brad Miller numbers

Steamer - 506 AB .268/.331.413, 13 HR, 11 SB
Oliver - 543 AB .273/.332/.425, 17 HR, 13 SB

It's hard to justify the difference in draft position based on that.

Well, a 20-25 SB difference is very large in most leagues. It may not be in yours esp if it's a points league

True, but ADP of Segura is in the 30-40 range. Miller is out around 200. That is a lot more than 20-25 SB. Segura is firmly at SS. Miller is unsettled. Segura has had two monster months. Miller has relatively unproven upside. Still, are they THAT different?

That said, Segura is showing up significantly lower in lists than his ADP, generally in the 70 to 100 range, 5th-8th SS. Miller does not make some of the same lists at all.

I have fond feelings for Segura. He was instrumental in keeping me competitive last season while I dealt with the Grienke/Halladay/Harrison crater in my pitching staff. I cannot help but feel he is a sell high candidate in keeper leagues.

J

[revo]

Segura had 42 SBs last year, and while he had "monster" months, the SBs were spread out consistently.

I think it plays out like this:

BA: Segura >> Miller
SB: Segura >>>> Miller
R/RBI/HR: wash

I agree with Chance -- 25-30 SB is enormous, especially if you're getting similar numbers in the Runs/HR/RBI departments. In my 16 team redraft, those SBs represented around 7.5 roto points, or the difference between 2nd (where I finished) and 4th, or between 6th and 10th.

The bigger issue is that the Millers of the middle-infield world are readily available, more or less, while there are extremely few Seguras. If you can get 40+ SBs and other solid stats at one of your middle infield spots, you're far ahead of the game.

I like Miller's upside, but until he does something out of the ordinary, I'll take Segura and pay the extra cost.

[onejayhawk]

I disagree BA strongly favors Segura. Maybe a notch, but offset by better power in Miller (ISO of .153 vs .133 Also Miller has a better BB/K). I would put all 4 stats in the wash.

You say that MI of Miller's quality are readily available. An ADP beyond 150 agrees with that. I think that is too far out, since it puts him with Jhonny Peralta and well past Jed Lowrie and JJ Hardy. this is Segura's cluster:

26 Carlos Gomez
27 Jose Fernandez
28 Max Scherzer
29 Jean Segura
30 Jay Bruce
31 Stephen Strasburg
32 Dustin Pedroia

http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all

J

[revo]

Yeah, not sure I would take Segura over many in that bunch, as I personally like to draft power first and get speed later. I think I'd go with an Everth Cabrera and hope his PED use didn't affect his legs.

[Bodhizefa]

Miller's definitely the starter at shortstop, so there's no question as to his position. Nick Franklin can't play short unless in emergency (he's a poor defender at second, and he has no business ever playing short). It starts to get murkier where the lineup is concerned -- I am not sure how the new manager will sort it out. Wedge really liked Miller in the #1 slot, but who knows what McClendon will do.

In the end, I think Miller has some sneaky potential to post a top 12 shortstop season as soon as 2014. He's got the hitting skills and speed to be a perennial .285/15 HR/15 SB guy, and in the current offensively challenged environment of MLB, that's a top 12 guy easily as long as he's at the top of the lineup. He also knows how to take a walk and runs his a** off on every play, which is sure to endear him with his new managerial staff eventually.

I actually own both Miller and Segura in one of my dynasty leagues, and I'm stoked to have the tandem. While Segura may be a bit overrated going into this season, I think Miller is severely underrated (as evidenced by his lack of appearances in many mock drafts I've seen). I'd take Segura overall because I think he's got enough speed to make any other categories Miller would win moot, but it's certainly closer than a lot of people would probably give it credit for. Miller's a great sleeper this year, in my opinion (with the usual grain of salt that I'm a huge Mariners homer, of course).

[Moonlight J]

Segura >>>> Miller, and it's not close

[chancellor]

Context is everything in the Segura discussion, IMO. Points league? Shoot, he's nowhere near that valuable. 20 team mixed league? Hmmm...equation changes quite a bit, as revo's nailed. Those roughly 30 SBs are huge.

In a shallower league (say, like a typical 12-team mixed), I agree completely with revo - get power early and speed late. I'd especially wait on Segura since I really think he ends up in the Andrus class with a little lower BA. Even in Milwaukee, 10 HRs is going to be a big stretch this year.

[Bodhizefa]

I bet when all is said and done this will be a hell of a lot closer than you guys think. Miller is no slouch at the plate at all.

Amen, man. It's kindof predictable, though -- since Miller was almost completely overlooked on top prospect lists, he was a sure thing to be underrated for a while on the fantasy scene. It seems to take fantasy owners longer than you'd think to adjust to what a guy actually does vs. what he was perceived to be able to do by scouts in various prospect reports. Miller's a good hitter, and I bet he's going to surprise a shitload of people in the next couple of years with his prowess at the plate.

[Sour Masher]

Amen, man. It's kindof predictable, though -- since Miller was almost completely overlooked on top prospect lists, he was a sure thing to be underrated for a while on the fantasy scene. It seems to take fantasy owners longer than you'd think to adjust to what a guy actually does vs. what he was perceived to be able to do by scouts in various prospect reports. Miller's a good hitter, and I bet he's going to surprise a shitload of people in the next couple of years with his prowess at the plate.

Off topic, but what is the latest on Nick Franklin. With Cano in town, and Miller seemingly locked in at SS, will and when will Franklin get traded? Any buzz? The Yankee rumors don't seem to be getting any traction.

[onejayhawk]

Segura >>>> Miller, and it's not close

We get that Jason. The question is value vs cost, not player vs player.

Amen, man. It's kindof predictable, though -- since Miller was almost completely overlooked on top prospect lists, he was a sure thing to be underrated for a while on the fantasy scene. It seems to take fantasy owners longer than you'd think to adjust to what a guy actually does vs. what he was perceived to be able to do by scouts in various prospect reports. Miller's a good hitter, and I bet he's going to surprise a shitload of people in the next couple of years with his prowess at the plate.

This was my basic point. See also Kole Calhoun.

Wait. I'm agreeing with eldiablo, or he's agreeing with me. Something must be wrong.

J