Two Disappointing $5 Corner Infielders - contract decision

[james33]

NL-only 12 teams.

$5 Alonso

$5 Frazier

Extend either or both to $10 through 2015?

[mjl]

Alonso: I don't see anything in his history or profile to make me think he's going to be much different than he was this year (and last year), and it's at least in the realm of possibility that Medica steals his job at some point. I don't think I'd extend him.

Frazier: enh. At least the Reds don't really have anyone pushing him unless Soto starts playing in AAA the way he was in the lower minors. That said, enh. I don't think I'd extend him either.

I could talk myself into both of them. It's been a while since I played a 12-team NL. Do you think you wouldn't be able to get them in the auction for $10?

[chancellor]

No on Alonso, for sure, to me, unless inflation is insane in your league. To me, he's a $8-10 player in a 12-team NL league, and as long as he's in PETCO, his power numbers are gonna be bad.

Now, Frazier...I'd extend. To me, he's a $16-19 player in a 12-team NL league. He has pretty well proven power of 18-20 HR, and an increasing walk rate three years running, so there's some upside to last years pretty dismal BA. I think 60-19-70-.240 is a base, and he has upside to 70-21-75-.255. Given the power shortage around the league, you could do much worse than that for $10 two years running. I wouldn't argue with not extending him - that's $12ish of profit in your pocket - but he's a sneaky-good play at $10, IMO.

[madducks]

I would not extend either player. I will only extend very good to elite players, even in an NL only, and worry that guys like Frazier with low BAs are only a step away from tanking completely. Just keep the profit off of the $5 and move on, imo.

This is what i was thinking. But, i play all mixed leagues. So, i hesitate to comment on only leagues.

[Gregg]

No on Alonso, for sure, to me, unless inflation is insane in your league. To me, he's a $8-10 player in a 12-team NL league, and as long as he's in PETCO, his power numbers are gonna be bad.

Now, Frazier...I'd extend. To me, he's a $16-19 player in a 12-team NL league. He has pretty well proven power of 18-20 HR, and an increasing walk rate three years running, so there's some upside to last years pretty dismal BA. I think 60-19-70-.240 is a base, and he has upside to 70-21-75-.255. Given the power shortage around the league, you could do much worse than that for $10 two years running. I wouldn't argue with not extending him - that's $12ish of profit in your pocket - but he's a sneaky-good play at $10, IMO.

I agree with this. I will add that if your league is active in trades, the extra year on Frazier (still with room for profilt) will give you more value if you are forced to make a trade.

[Don Quixote]

I would not extend either player. I will only extend very good to elite players, even in an NL only, and worry that guys like Frazier with low BAs are only a step away from tanking completely. Just keep the profit off of the $5 and move on, imo.

That's how I see it, too. However, keep in mind that I'm very phobic about extending contracts except in the most obvious cases. Been there, done that, been burned quite a few times.

mjl makes a good point in noting that the Reds don't have anyone pushing Frazier at 3B. The primary backup right now is Jack Hannahan, which means there's no pressure from behind on Frazier. This could really work against you if he slumps.