Is Jonathan Papeldone?

[Moonlight J]

My latest at Fangraphs - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jonathan-papeldone/

[Teenwolf]

Overpaid. Clearly not "done".

This doesn't look like normal aging curve, losing 5 MPH on your heater in one season. The massive dip in K rate is also alarming.

Reminds me of Jose Valverde or Billy Koch. Once a "proven closer" is no longer worthy of pitching the 9th because their stuff is visibly diminished, it can be a lightning quick plummet out of the game. Seems to me that closing is more and more for kids (95-100 mph guys with body or control issues that won't allow them to start) than wily veterans.

Being overpaid is an issue because of Papelbon's ego, and the Phils likely not wanting to watch their free agent mistake haunt them in the 9th for 2-3 more years. Fans also hate their overpaid players more than ever before, thanks to stuff like MLBTR, so fan vitriol is likely fueling these trade attempts as well.

Amaro must be pretty bummed out about having to pay 1/2 of Pap's salary just to get a trade conversation started. Poor guy. I think maybe he needs a good long vacation.

[chancellor]

Depending on how much salary the Phillies eat, a team could get a first rate closer at a bargain price, IMO. Yes, he had a drop of 5 MPH off his fastball after Memorial Day. But what was the root cause? Sure, if it's shoulder woes, that's very bad. But if he was pitching with an injured hip/leg (another speculation I saw), then he could well gain most/all of that velocity back next year.

And I was impressed with the fact that Jason noted that Papelbon adjusted his pitching style to adapt to his lower velocity. He wasn't as effective, but he was likely as effective as he could have been given the velocity drop.