2K24: Cincinnati Reds

[Don Quixote]

The beat writer who most often parrots the company line says the Reds should consider trading Aroldis Chapman--

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2013/12/13/is-it-time-to-consider-trading-chapman/

Look at John Fay's back and you can usually see some front office person's hand in there.

[Don Quixote]

Why are the Reds trying to acquire Brett Gardner if they already have Hamilton to bat leadoff? Is this part of some baseball conspiracy to make Gardner a #9 hitter for life?

No, since it's the NL, they want to make him a #8 hitter for life.

Actually, if they were to acquire Gardner, they'd probably have him play left and hit second behind Hamilton. Hamilton, Gardner, Votto, ?? (Frazier?), Bruce, followed by a steep drop-off if Phillips is no longer around, some combination of the new 2B, Cozart, and Mesoraco. If Hamilton doesn't win the CF job in spring training, look for it to be Gardner in center, followed by ?? (Schumaker at 2B?), Votto, Ludwick in left, Bruce, Frazier, and Cozart/Mesoraco or vice versa.

EDIT TO ADD: Just saw this on Rotoworld--

"The Yankees are one of the teams on Brandon Phillips' no-trade list, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
That explains why Phillips was rumored to have asked for more money in any potential deal to the Yankees. Phillips still has four years and $50 million left on his deal, and it's unclear how much more he might ask for to waive the limited no-trade clause. It may be just one of many reasons the Reds end up holding onto the 32-year-old."

Very interesting. I figured that money would be an issue due to the large difference between the top tax rates of Ohio plus Cincinnati vs. New York state plus city, plus Phillips would probably like to leverage his NTC into increasing his last big contract and also jerk the Reds around some.

[madducks]

Why are the Reds trying to acquire Brett Gardner if they already have Hamilton to bat leadoff? Is this part of some baseball conspiracy to make Gardner a #9 hitter for life?

[Don Quixote]

Given the need to win now (excellent point, Controller Jacobs), I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds retain Choo if they can't trade Phillips.

I'm not sure management wants to spend that kind of money. They should, given the win-now situation, but whether they will is another story. If they sign him, and if Hamilton hits enough in spring training to win the CF job, look for Ludwick to be dealt.

[james33]

Given the need to win now (excellent point, Controller Jacobs), I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds retain Choo if they can't trade Phillips.

[Don Quixote]

I didn't see Hamilton on defense last season, but the reports I got from people who went to Louisville games were that he's coming along, that the outfield inexperience still shows but that his reads are improving. It sounds like his defense is not an issue (and the Reds showed they would tolerate merely average or slightly below average defense in center last year with Choo playing out of position), and that it will all come down to his ability to get on base. Draw walks, slap some singles, that's obviously all they need with his speeeeeeeeeeeed. Jeebus, that guy can FLY.

2B--The Schumaker signing is actually an upgrade, since the incumbent backup is the defensive whiz/offensive take a whiz Cesar Izturis. Yeah, Skip is as blah as it gets, but he's a competent fill-in at 2B and CF, a decent pinch-hitter (something the team didn't have last year), and he gets on base enough. Phillips may have talked his way out of town, but the market is not yet established and his contract is a long one. I'm not sure there's both a team willing to take his contract AND with the prospects to trade. My uninformed opinion is that Phillips stays and the front office makes an unsuccessful effort to get him to stop running his mouth so much.

SPs--I think they'll make a big effort to lock up Latos this off-season or early season. Cueto was Baker's guy, but Price may be another matter. They may wait and see if he's healthy before initiating contract talks. They'll have to wait and see how Chapman does as a starter before they can move forward on him, but everyone I've talked to says the front office really likes him personally and of course they love his arm. It's just that there's one set of contract ideas for him as a starter and another as a closer. Simon was and is a long reliever, surprisingly good last year but replaceable. Leake doesn't have as many fans in the front office as he used to have, just hasn't progressed. I get the sense that Bailey isn't that eager to sign long-term, but may do it if they offer enough money; there was some ill will about how he was handled a few years ago, with Bailey thinking some of the front office people were throwing him under the bus when he was scuffling. Not much help in the high minors right now.

3B--They're not as crazy about Frazier as they once were. His offense doesn't quite cover his defensive struggles. My very unscientific observation is that his range is seriously deficient, his arm fine. Like so many third basemen who struggle there, he could be a LF in the making (he has some minor league experience there). He needs to pick it up on both sides of the ball. The problem is that the best in-house option is the offensively offensive Jack Hannahan. Look for them to stay with Frazier and hope.

RF--Covered. They like the effort and results they got from Jay Bruce last year. Next to 1B, the least of the organization's worries.

LF--While they are counting on a healthy and productive return from Ryan Ludwick, they're not putting all their eggs in his basket (am I using enough clichés here?). There are options in-house, and I get the idea that they may look around during spring training.

SS--Cozart's defense keeps him in the lineup, and they're happy enough with the offense he provides. I don't think Price is going to be loopy and hit him second like Baker did, though. Look for him in the #7-8 slots, depending on how Mesoraco hits.

1B--Joey Votto could be the best #2 hitter of our generation; unfortunately, he hits third in the lineup. His take-a-walk-every-time approach drives people mad. Needs to work on his defense, which was sloppy last year. Management hasn't the least interest in trading him, justifiably so. He's the team's anchor. And he's a great hitter. Has a great approach with the bases empty, but has the same approach with RISP.

CF--Hamilton if he can get on base, otherwise some combination of Chris Heisey/Schumaker/whatever. If Hamilton scuffles in spring training, don't be surprised to see a deal for another player in his contract year, like they did with Choo.

C--They're rolling the dice with Mesoraco, who so far hasn't produced anywhere near like his hype or his minor league numbers. Signing Brayan Pena probably means the end of Ryan Hanigan's time here, as they're similar players. Pena is a career backup who usually hits well enough to not be a liability, but shouldn't play more than once or twice a week.

Bullpen--Obviously, the closer role won't be decided until they decide whether Chapman starts or not. He's the guy if he goes back to the pen. Otherwise, it's Broxton if healthy after his surgery, maybe Sean Marshall or J.J. Hoover if not. The other relievers are fairly generic.

[Controller Jacobs]

Bailey is a FA in 2015. Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Simon and Leake are FAs in 2016.

That's a lot of talented pitching with good contracts vaporizing after two seasons. aka win now. Problem is, they look pretty tied up financially. And probably they can't deal Marshall or Broxton this offseason. They may need Cano to sign with somebody before they can move Phillips, but who then is 2B?

Choo arguably was the perfect hitting compliment to Votto - Votto's willingness to take the BB over the RBI is much more of a problem for opposing pitchers when there's another guy already getting on base twice a game. But Hamilton adds a crazy X factor. His CF defense could be one of the most important factors for 2014.

[Controller Jacobs]

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