2k13: Jordy Mercer

[joncarlos]

I'm posting this mostly because I need to work through it myself. Mercer was named the starting SS for the Pirates this week, finally displacing the offensively inept Clint Barmes.

In 2012, Mercer hit 210/265/371 in 68 PAs for the Pirates, with a 5.9% walk rate and 20.6% K rate. He had 1 HR and 0 steals.

At AAA this year (his 3rd time there), Mercer had 109 PAs of 333/404/448 with 1 HR and 3 steals. Indy isn't a great place to hit, certainly not like Vegas or Colorado Springs, but even with that caveat, those numbers don't portend a 25-HR guy.

So far in 114 PAs in the majors, Mercer is hitting 272/324/456 with 3 HR and 2 steals, a 6.1% walk rate and 21.1% K rate. So those look like his real plate discipline numbers in the majors at this point. Mercer has also popped 8 doubles and a triple, hence the nice SLG. He hasn't cracked double digits in steals since 2009 so his value mostly comes from PT and maybe a helpful AVG.

ZIPS the rest of the way says 240 PA, 241/293/374 with 4 HR and 3 SB, which seems a little pessimistic. I think he can hit .260-.270 with 6-7 HRs. Which still isn't much. But at least it's not Clint Barmes.

[Hammer]

I picked him up in my NL only because of desperation and have been somewhat content that he isn't a zero. Hitting in the two hole helps although he will be called upon to bunt a lot. Very low end but possible contributor as Barmes should never be allowed in the batters box again.

[james33]

Your projections seem reasonable. I count 33 2B and 4 3B this year plus last year in AAA plus Majors, in 470 total AB. Those 2B and 3B seem ok to me relative to his 9 HR, suggesting that his HR probably won't be any worse than what you've projected. 100 Ks over the same period; not great but not awful, but suggests your BA projection is reasonable.

Initial fear with guys like this is what happens if they struggle over a small sample size? In other words, are there other obvious options, so could he be out of a job one month from now? Looking through Pirates other options at SS http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=19782 , there doesn't appear to be much more competition (unless - can Ivan DeJesus play SS like his dad, or is he strictly 2B?)

[joncarlos]

I don't think Dejesus is a real threat; Barmes is slightly less atrocious in the 2nd half, so if Mercer struggles they'll probably just go back to him. The lack of upper-level SS options will probably prevent them from DFA'ing Barmes, though I guess you never know.

Definitely a good point about the bunting. Hurdle loves to bunt. Mercer won't get many chances to do things with runners on, given Marte's so-so OBP, the crap at the bottom of the lineup and Hurdle's bunting.