2K14: John Axford

[Sour Masher]

Axford struggled mightily with his overall control, and especially his command of his curveball in 2012, giving up a horrid 39 walks in 69 innings, while sporting a 4.67 era and a 1.44 whip. His walk issues didn't improve all year, even when he had stretches where he kept the blown saves and era down. That is concerning. But then there is the K rate. Sporting a 12.1K/9 rate (his highest to date), he was more dominant in that department than any closer not named Champman or Kimbrel. That kind of stuff is enticing, and looking at his 2011 stat line, a fella can't help but see the potential buy low opportunity on a guy who could end up as a top 5 closer in 2013, if he could just keep his walks in check. But that is a big if, and depite not having any serious competition for the closer job on the Brewers, he has shown last year that he is capable of being wild enough to lose the closer role.

So, how are junkies approaching Axford in 2013? Is he radioactive material that you hope some other team has to deal with? Is he a classic boom or bust pick that you gamble on after all of the good, safer closers are off the board? Or is he a legit bounce back candidate that you feel is worth reaching for, based on his filthy stuff and 2011 stat line?

I for one have him for $5 in a 14 team points league that highly favors high K closers. I'm keeping him for sure, but I'm struggling to decide if I should extend him for a year. If all he does is regain just enough control to keep the closer job all year while maintaining a 10K per 9 rate, he'd be well worth extending in my league. But he's a big risk. I really don't know what to do with him. I traded a lot to land him, with the perception that he was going to be an elite closer for me, and someone I could keep for a couple of years. That might be tainting my view here. What do others think of him? Is he worth gambling on both for 2013 and 2014? Heck, is he even worth gambling on in 2013? I'd love to see some projections. I don't feel I know enough about the causes of his struggles, or the likelihood that he'll bounce back to make even a semi-educated prediction.

[popeye]

I'd extend him for a year - I don't see much in the way of replacement closers on that team.

[willthethrill]

I would not extend. Closers are too volatile from one year to the next, and I don't think that a replacement-level closer is especially hard to find.

[joncarlos]

I'd extend him for a year - I don't see much in the way of replacement closers on that team.

I do like Jim Henderson quite a bit. Small sample but check out his K9 last year.

I think Axford bounces back a little bit. I'm not worried about investing.

The only thing that worries me a little is that it was his curveball that was a mess, and that's the kind of pitch that hitters can learn to lay off. He might not have been throwing it much differently than he was in 2011. I haven't checked, but that could be a red flag.

[Sour Masher]

I would not extend. Closers are too volatile from one year to the next, and I don't think that a replacement-level closer is especially hard to find.

But is he a replacement level closer?

[Sour Masher]

I do like Jim Henderson quite a bit. Small sample but check out his K9 last year.

If I have the roster space, do you think Henderson is worth rostering as inurance for Axford?

[joncarlos]

If I have the roster space, do you think Henderson is worth rostering as inurance for Axford?

I think he's a pretty solid bet to be the #2 for the Brewers. And he will contribute Ks if you have to put him in your lineup for an injured starter.

[popeye]

Yeah, no freakin' way do I extend this guy. There are precious few closers that are ever worthy of an extension and a guy coming off of a relatively disastrous year is certainly not one of them.

There are plenty of closers who are worth extending, if their salaries are low enough. You make it sound as if salary is irrelevant and it's not.

[Gregg]

It is not like we are talking going from 15 -20. This is a $5 closer going to $10. If I had a good amount of money I would extend for a year to $10. If I am competing I get him the extra year, if not I increase his trade value to all teams rather than just to those still in the hunt this year.Now if I only have 50 bucks to spend at auction I probably do not extend him. But to me this is a no brainer extension.

[Sour Masher]

It is not like we are talking going from 15 -20. This is a $5 closer going to $10. If I had a good amount of money I would extend for a year to $10. If I am competing I get him the extra year, if not I increase his trade value to all teams rather than just to those still in the hunt this year.Now if I only have 50 bucks to spend at auction I probably do not extend him. But to me this is a no brainer extension.

Some context is that we keep 15 players, so there is extreme inflation. And our budget is $400, so $10 is not much at all in our league, but locking up a keeper spot is a big deal, and I wouldn't want him as a keeper if he isn't a closer anymore.

[Davros]

Interesting article about Axford's stint in St. Louis that MLB Trade Rumors found.

On John Axford’s first day with the St. Louis Cardinals, his new coaches sat him down for a meeting. We’ve been scouting you for five years, they said. And by the way, you might be interested in one thing we know about you: You’re tipping your pitches.

Axford was stunned. In that moment, his mind raced back to certain games he had pitched against the Cardinals while with the Milwaukee Brewers.

“I recall, sitting in that room when they told me that, a few different games running through my mind, including blown saves, and thinking, ‘Maybe that’s why they didn’t swing at that slider that was just out of the zone,’ ” he said.

(snip)

His fortunes turned when the Cardinals acquired him last Aug. 30. After he made “one little adjustment” in his delivery, batters no longer knew what to expect. Axford posted a 1.74 ERA in 13 games for St. Louis and topped it off with a 1.59 mark in six post-season games, including two scoreless outings against Boston in the World Series.

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/01/12/canadian-john-axfords-short-stint-with-st-louis-cardinals-was-pivotal-and-profitable/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Mithrandir]

Interesting article about Axford's stint in St. Louis that MLB Trade Rumors found.



http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/...medium=twitter

So no one on the Brewers could tell he was tipping his pitches??? And the Cards could?

[Bodhizefa]

So no one on the Brewers could tell he was tipping his pitches??? And the Cards could?

Sounds about right. The Cards are pretty darned good at development and coaching. The Brewers? I don't think you could say that's a strongpoint there.

[Grinch]

So no one on the Brewers could tell he was tipping his pitches??? And the Cards could?

When looking at his stats, it appears as though the Cards were not the only team that picked up on it.

[chancellor]

So no one on the Brewers could tell he was tipping his pitches??? And the Cards could?

He was warned more than once and blew off the pitching coaches. John Smoltz pointed it out to him in 2010, and Axford blew him off, too. Bodz is correct that the Brewers pitching coaching isn't the best, but even they caught this.