Another extension question

[The Feral Slasher]

18 team league, 50ish percent inflation. What would be your extensions for:

Luis Robert - $6 Extend 1 or 2 years ?
Justin Verlander - $7 Extend 1 year ?

[Gregg]

I would extend Robert for 2 years.

I can't answer Verlander as I would be asking the group the same question. I think it would depend on how much money I had going into auction. If I had a lot probably a year.

[Ken]

Verlander will be retired at some point in the next 5 years I assume. I would not extend him, it could easily be after this year right?

Robert is too injury prone for an extension.

I'd default to no extension.

The counter argument comes in with 2 situations:

1) If you are rebuilding and playing for 2024, then a contract that expires in 2023 isn't worth as much to you. You might end up extending more players than you normally should.
2) If you plan to trade these contracts to someone who is rebuilding then their value will be higher to that individual with an extension (see point 1)

[The Feral Slasher]

Verlander will be retired at some point in the next 5 years I assume. I would not extend him, it could easily be after this year right?

Robert is too injury prone for an extension.

I'd default to no extension.

The counter argument comes in with 2 situations:

1) If you are rebuilding and playing for 2024, then a contract that expires in 2023 isn't worth as much to you. You might end up extending more players than you normally should.
2) If you plan to trade these contracts to someone who is rebuilding then their value will be higher to that individual with an extension (see point 1)

yeah, I assume Verlander will be done in the next five years, but I strongly believe he will pitch in 2024 barring injury, which is a legitimate concern. Robert scares me with his injury history. But at 11 I think he offers huge value, even if he misses half a year.

I think I could trade either of them for a good haul if i extend them, barring a career ending injury.

[Ken]

yeah, I assume Verlander will be done in the next five years, but I strongly believe he will pitch in 2024 barring injury, which is a legitimate concern. Robert scares me with his injury history. But at 11 I think he offers huge value, even if he misses half a year.

I think I could trade either of them for a good haul if i extend them, barring a career ending injury.

In my opinion the analysis that goes into these decisions is often mistaken.

The question is not whether Robert is worth $11, he definitely is. The question is the relative value of having a $6 Robert this year and spending the other $5 on additional assets vs having an $11 Robert this year and next year. Or flipping it backwards, if you had an $11 Robert and someone said I'll give you $5 of auction dollars if you'll just play Robert out this year.

I almost always take the profit because I expect to use Robert this year AND find another guy cheap for next year. I'd say "no" to the free $5 if I thought I couldn't fill a good keeper list next year - from experience I know I always have a good list and when you offer me the extra $5 to go for it this year I'm in!

[The Feral Slasher]

In my opinion the analysis that goes into these decisions is often mistaken.

The question is not whether Robert is worth $11, he definitely is. The question is the relative value of having a $6 Robert this year and spending the other $5 on additional assets vs having an $11 Robert this year and next year. Or flipping it backwards, if you had an $11 Robert and someone said I'll give you $5 of auction dollars if you'll just play Robert out this year.

I almost always take the profit because I expect to use Robert this year AND find another guy cheap for next year. I'd say "no" to the free $5 if I thought I couldn't fill a good keeper list next year - from experience I know I always have a good list and when you offer me the extra $5 to go for it this year I'm in!

that's fine, we disagree. 5 dollars in the auction gets you about 3.5 dollars of value after inflation,, and in this particular league i don't think having 165 bucks instead of 160 is significant. Paying the extra five dollars gives you trade options as well as the likely value the following year. This topic is one where people have different ideas, which is good, I don't think anyone will convince someone else they are wrong.EDIT: I asked for input so i do appreciate your response. GIves me something to think about and maybe I will reconsider

[Ken]

that's fine, we disagree. 5 dollars in the auction gets you about 3.5 dollars of value after inflation,, and in this particular league i don't think having 165 bucks instead of 160 is significant. Paying the extra five dollars gives you trade options as well as the likely value the following year. This topic is one where people have different ideas, which is good, I don't think anyone will convince someone else they are wrong.EDIT: I asked so input so i do appreciate your response. GIves me something to think about

Sorry not trying to convince you! Just talking about the topic posted.

If I had a nickel for the number of times I wish I had an extra $1 at the end of an auction to get one of my guys when I got outbid... much less $5. $5 is a significant amount of auction money IMO, even in an inflationary situation.

[The Feral Slasher]

Sorry not trying to convince you! Just talking about the topic posted.

If I had a nickel for the number of times I wish I had an extra $1 at the end of an auction to get one of my guys when I got outbid... much less $5. $5 is a significant amount of auction money IMO, even in an inflationary situation.

no need to apologize, I really do appreciate getting different opinions. And yeah, every year i wish i had five extra dollars in the end game....but if i had five extra bucks I would likely burn them long before the end game. Every year i plan to keep some money and I never do.

[The Feral Slasher]

no need to apologize, I really do appreciate getting different opinions. And yeah, every year i wish i had five extra dollars in the end game....but if i had five extra bucks I would likely burn them long before the end game. Every year i plan to keep some money and I never do.

on the flipside, i never leave 20 bucks on the table, ha ha

[madducks]

Robert is an injury risk and Verlander is a regression risk but I like both enough to go one more year on each of them.

[Pauly]

I wouldnt extend either one myself. Save it for the superstars and players under 40

[heyelander]

Sorry not trying to convince you! Just talking about the topic posted.

If I had a nickel for the number of times I wish I had an extra $1 at the end of an auction to get one of my guys when I got outbid... much less $5. $5 is a significant amount of auction money IMO, even in an inflationary situation.

$5 is the difference between me leaving $11 on the table and $16 on the table. :smh:

[Sour Masher]

It always amazes me how adverse folks are here to extending very good or even great players. I will always regret giving Verlander away post TJ surgery. I will not bet against him again. I would extend both a year.

Barring catastrophic injury that extends into 2024, that $5 bump buys you seller's insurance. I have had a guy like Robert go down in season and been able to flip him for an equally good, healthy expiring player because of that extra year.

[cool hand]

no need to apologize, I really do appreciate getting different opinions. And yeah, every year i wish i had five extra dollars in the end game....but if i had five extra bucks I would likely burn them long before the end game. Every year i plan to keep some money and I never do.

This. How much you have at the end game is fully a function of your draft strategy discipline, and not one of how much you start with.

[Gregg]

This. How much you have at the end game is fully a function of your draft strategy discipline, and not one of how much you start with.

This is true.

No matter how much I start with I know I will end up with $1 max but most often 0 at the end. I have had a lot of money and almost no money with the same result. It is definitely a planned strategy.