Please rank these guys for last keeper slot?

[Sour Masher]

If you are in love with Gore, fine, keep at $10 - but in that case, you wouldn't need to ask the community, he's just your guy and you are keeping him despite it being a bad decision.

It is not a bad decision if 1. You believe he will out earn $10, and 2. You are fairly certain his auction price will exceed $10 by at least a few bucks. But I am making big assumptions there related to the OP. I would likely not keep him, and try to land two of the big name pitchers instead--I like all of the ones in that group. But the decision to keep him or not really comes down to the 1 and 2 I just named. I personally believe Gore is a much better $3 gamble than most of the ones available in a 12 team NL only league, and I was just expressing that if the OP to keep one of them for whatever reason, he is the one I'd overpay for, if I felt he was going to go for more in the auction.

More broadly, if you think a guy that the industry consensus says should go for $1-3, but you are both convinced he is going to be a huge break out, and you know at least someone else in your league also thinks that, I assume you would keep that player and not consider it a bad decision. For instance, it would not have been a bad decision for someone to keep a $10 Spencer Strider last year, despite his perceived market value then, if that someone felt strongly he would be a stud and also believed the huge Braves homer in his league was going to bid him up past $10. Again, lots of assumptions here on my part, but I'm just pushing back on it always being a bad decision to keep a guy above his industry consensus market value.

Having said that, yes, it take hubris to think you are right when everyone else thinks a player is worth less than you do, and it is most often a better strategy to not way overpay for a player like that. I avoid getting into bidding wars over sleepers, and take great pleasure when this inevitably happens every year in my auction what that one guy who happens to be 3 or 4 guys top sleeper target ends up going for a price that bakes in his total upside. I take out my metaphorical popcorn and just enjoy. Most of the time, that ends up being a bad play. Everyone once in awhile, that player emerges as a star and the guy who got him gets to crow, which I also don't mind, because it encourages owners to keep doing this, which, on the whole, means more value for me.

[Ken]

I avoid getting into bidding wars over sleepers, and take great pleasure when this inevitably happens every year in my auction what that one guy who happens to be 3 or 4 guys top sleeper target ends up going for a price that bakes in his total upside. I take out my metaphorical popcorn and just enjoy. Most of the time, that ends up being a bad play. Everyone once in awhile, that player emerges as a star and the guy who got him gets to crow, which I also don't mind, because it encourages owners to keep doing this, which, on the whole, means more value for me.

Your points are fair, but I think this quote above hits on why I'm suggesting it's a bad decision.

If you think you can ID Spencer Strider ahead of time I have a few things for you to consider.

I identify some of these guys I like every year and feel like I've found a sleeper but how often does it actually hit - maybe 50% of the time? I dont know I haven't kept up but I know the hit rate isn't high. It's a naive excercise in doing that - you are saying I'm smarter than the rest of the market. It can certainly be true in some cases but it's unlikely that it's true consistently. So for every Strider hit you'll have 1 or 2 guys who just bust.

The quantity of overpay matters, and here we are suggesting a very significant overpay. That difference in $ can be reallocated to someone closer to market and your risk profile goes down dramatically.

So in summary, while the results may not be bad every time (i.e. if you hit on Strider), I think it's still a bad decision process.

I'm not saying stop looking for Strider - but pay up to $2-3 more than market for them if you need to, not $10 more.

[Sour Masher]

I concede Gore, at this point, is not a good keeper option at $10. Heck, he might not even make the starting rotation. Implied in my reply was an assumption of good indicators this spring, but even then, and even with high inflation, yeah, it is a real stretch to pay $10 for him. I don't play in only leagues, so it is hard for me to gauge how much guys should go for in them. I was initially assuming that such guys go for twice as much as they would in a mixed league of the same size (and Gore will be kept for $5 in my 14 team mixed league), but on reflection, that is likely not true, since you can take a lot more risks in a mixed league than in a 12 team only league. So, while it may be justifiable to take a gamble on Gore at $5 in a similar mixed league (we also have a higher than normal cap, 15 keepers, lots of minor leaguers, and so very high inflation), it does not mean one should spend $10 on him in an only league where replacement level is horrible and the consequences of being wrong are much higher. If the Gore owner is wrong to keep him for $5, it really won't hurt him too much given how much turn over happens at the back end of our rosters and the waiver wire, but throwing away $10 in a 12 team NL only league likely hurts your chances a lot more, so the risk/reward is different.

Aside from that, though, if he were available, I would definitely be watching for how Gore looks this spring and to see if he secures a rotation spot. I do think he has a lot of upside over his current price/adp, and I doubt the average cost to get him in a league like this one ends up staying at $1-3 if he looks good this spring. But again, these are assumptions at this point. If a decision has to be made soon, none of the three guys asked about should be kept at their prices.

[Gregg]

I disagree. For a few reasons.

A deep keeper league like this does limit your options, but unless the keeper number (15) is MORE than the total number of active players (i.e. you keep all 23 starters) replacement level is unaffected. There may only be 50 pitchers who are above replacement available in your auction, but there's also only 50 places to put them on a roster in the auction, so your value over replacement numbers should hold.

The majority of projection systems out there put him at or below replacement even in a 12 team only league. So his *price* should be expected to be around that level. A $1-$3 pitcher at most based on the market.

Add in inflation. Unless we are talking about inflation levels of hundreds of percentage points, his price should not rise above ~$6. Couple this with auction dynamics - early star players eat up inflation, and the back end players can actually be deflated in price often times.

So can I promise you that you can get him back at $10? No. But if someone else pays $10 for Mackenzie Gore I can promise you there's another similar player that you are now getting cheaper because someone just took $10 out of the pot for what the market says is a $1-$3 guy.

If you are in love with Gore, fine, keep at $10 - but in that case, you wouldn't need to ask the community, he's just your guy and you are keeping him despite it being a bad decision.

I agree with this. So therefore it is a Great Post!!! I meant Great Post! but my !!! stuck.

[Sour Masher]

Also, if your hit rate on sleepers is anything close to 50%, mind sharing who your sleepers are this year Ken . I wouldn't mind knowing who you like to break out this year if you can share (I know a lot of you guys play in leagues together, so maybe you can't).

[Ken]

Also, if your hit rate on sleepers is anything close to 50%, mind sharing who your sleepers are this year Ken . I wouldn't mind knowing who you like to break out this year if you can share (I know a lot of you guys play in leagues together, so maybe you can't).

I doubt I'm close to 50%, I bet I'm much worse - I was in early on Bieber before his initial breakout, in on Joe Ryan, in on Woodruff when he converted from RP to SP, in on Nestor, I liked Christian Walker last year and that one turned out good, paid $20 each for both JRod and Witt last year in a redraft which was over market but I trusted it. Bought Steven Kwan for cheap last year. I wish my memory went back further.

I really busted on Dylan Carlson, thought he was going to be good last year. I used to think Junis was going to blow up and become a good pitcher but never happened. I've always been high on Ober but he's never been more than meh.

But you mainly remember the wins so it's hard to say. Also several of these guys are more than sleepers.

[Sharky]

But you mainly remember the wins so it's hard to say. Also several of these guys are more than sleepers.

Now that’s intellectually honest!

[scottw]

All this reflects why I bring these questions to the Pen! Whenever a discussion like this one blows up, it's good for everyone else, too, to get perspective of the big picture. Thanks folks!

[the heat]

Standard NL-only 4x4 = those guys won't help in 2 of the 4 pitching categories (W & Sv) and would likely hurt you in the 2 ratio categories.
The Nats aren't going to win enough & I don't think Thompson is in the rotation.

[scottw]

I am coming around to not keeping any of them, although, with my luck, Gore will come back to bite me! I am the lucky Lux owner, too.

[Gregg]

I am coming around to not keeping any of them, although, with my luck, Gore will come back to bite me! I am the lucky Lux owner, too.

Gore will not bite you if he is on your team for two bucks.

[scottw]

Gore is $10.,which is more than I want to safely invest in a question mark. 2 bucks, I would certainly keep him

[Gregg]

Gore is $10.,which is more than I want to safely invest in a question mark. 2 bucks, I would certainly keep him

If you drop him you will most likely get him back for 2 bucks then he cannot bite you.

[madducks]

I'd probably go with that order, taking a shot that Gore can hit his big potential, but don't love any.

I agree with this.

[scottw]

If you drop him you will most likely get him back for 2 bucks then he cannot bite you.

Not a chance in hell will he go for anywhere near $2. I expect $8.--$10. easily. We'll see!