9-team, 5x5, $260, NL-only keeper league bidding using an auction calculator

[whalewang]

9-team, 5x5, $260, NL-only keeper league.
I've never used an auction calculator before but thought I'd try it this year as I perceive them to be getting more reliable over the years. I ran the auction calculator Fangraphs with a 65% to hitting and inputting as many keepers as I think we'll have.

Using The BAT X, on the hitting side the highest rated available hitters are as follows:
Freeman @ $37 and inflation adjusted to $48
Turner @ $34 and inflation adjusted to $44
Machado @ $29 and inflation adjusted to $37
Albies @ $22 and inflation adjusted to $29
.
.
Harper @ $1 and inflation adjusted to $1 (I'm sure he'll go for over $30 because of keeper implications)

All these players are going well over the adjusted prices. So, how do we effectively use a calculator? We can't just ignore the highest level talent and get the middle to low tier players as that doesn't seem like a good strategy to me.

How are you guys using a calculator?

[The Feral Slasher]

9-team, 5x5, $260, NL-only keeper league.
I've never used an auction calculator before but thought I'd try it this year as I perceive them to be getting more reliable over the years. I ran the auction calculator Fangraphs with a 65% to hitting and inputting as many keepers as I think we'll have.

Using The BAT X, on the hitting side the highest rated available hitters are as follows:
Freeman @ $37 and inflation adjusted to $48
Turner @ $34 and inflation adjusted to $44
Machado @ $29 and inflation adjusted to $37
Albies @ $22 and inflation adjusted to $29
.
.
Harper @ $1 and inflation adjusted to $1 (I'm sure he'll go for over $30 because of keeper implications)

All these players are going well over the adjusted prices. So, how do we effectively use a calculator? We can't just ignore the highest level talent and get the middle to low tier players as that doesn't seem like a good strategy to me.

How are you guys using a calculator?

How are you adjusting for inflation?

[whalewang]

How are you adjusting for inflation?

The calculator auto adjusts it. I'm using the FanGraphs calculator.

[The Feral Slasher]

The calculator auto adjusts it. I'm using the FanGraphs calculator.

I will take a look... I remember hit vs. pitch percent, but don't recall inflation.

[The Feral Slasher]

The calculator auto adjusts it. I'm using the FanGraphs calculator.

Hmmmmm....so if you put in all the league keepers and salaries correctly it seems like fangraphs should output the inflated values. I've never done that before. I always just run the values and then estimate my inflation on my own afterward to adjust. Maybe someone else has.

EDIT - do pitchers and average hitters (not the stars) show reasonable values that align with your expectations ?

[ThatRogue]

If you are using a dynamic calculator program allowing you to make real time updates as players are purchased at inflated values during the auction, then the actual inflation comes down and the calculator’s projected prices begin to normalize. However, because spending is not uniform across owners, there may be teams with money who will then start overpaying for available talent. Typically this results in a number of bargains in the late middle and end game phases of an auction…but in most cases, those remaining players will not produce enough to help a team win. Thus, even with a calculator you have to pick the spots when you pay inflated values for some talent and the spots where you will wait for the “bargain” talent.

[Ken]

If you are using a dynamic calculator program allowing you to make real time updates as players are purchased at inflated values during the auction, then the actual inflation comes down and the calculator’s projected prices begin to normalize. However, because spending is not uniform across owners, there may be teams with money who will then start overpaying for available talent. Typically this results in a number of bargains in the late middle and end game phases of an auction…but in most cases, those remaining players will not produce enough to help a team win. Thus, even with a calculator you have to pick the spots when you pay inflated values for some talent and the spots where you will wait for the “bargain” talent.

Some of this lines up with my experience, some of it does not.

When you go into an auction, early players that are thrown go higher than even the inflated price in many cases. This brings inflation down, and typically by the middle of the auction it dips into negative, meaning that mid tier players are cheaper than they should be in a startup auction.

Where I differ from you is that I think you absolutely CAN win with those mid tier bargains. You shouldn't rely solely on them, but they are the meat of your team in most cases and winning that area is crucial.

Then, the end game scenarios come down to getting a few $5-$10 players for $2-3 due to being able to outbid those in dollar days.

From a strategy perspective I like to go on runs and then wait. I do buy one of the expensive early guys. Then I wait, and eventually I have the most money left - when the rooms starts to get nervous about buying (and prices have come way down) I go on a spending spree again, but only for a few players I like - then I wait again, etc. At the end during dollar days I like to have a couple extra dollars to be the guy with the hammer on the 2 or 3 guys I want for cheap.

This strategy has worked very very well.

Also yes, I use a calculator that I have created myself.

[whalewang]

When you go into an auction, early players that are thrown go higher than even the inflated price in many cases. This brings inflation down, and typically by the middle of the auction it dips into negative, meaning that mid tier players are cheaper than they should be in a startup auction.

That's a good explanation.

[whalewang]

EDIT - do pitchers and average hitters (not the stars) show reasonable values that align with your expectations ?

On the hitting side, I'd say around half way down the list it starts showing accurate inflated dollar values.
On the pitching side, values start at the top. Verlander and Nola at $45, no one will pay that. Diaz at $34, he'll go for about that.

[ThatRogue]

Some of this lines up with my experience, some of it does not.

When you go into an auction, early players that are thrown go higher than even the inflated price in many cases. This brings inflation down, and typically by the middle of the auction it dips into negative, meaning that mid tier players are cheaper than they should be in a startup auction.

Where I differ from you is that I think you absolutely CAN win with those mid tier bargains. You shouldn't rely solely on them, but they are the meat of your team in most cases and winning that area is crucial.

Then, the end game scenarios come down to getting a few $5-$10 players for $2-3 due to being able to outbid those in dollar days.

From a strategy perspective I like to go on runs and then wait. I do buy one of the expensive early guys. Then I wait, and eventually I have the most money left - when the rooms starts to get nervous about buying (and prices have come way down) I go on a spending spree again, but only for a few players I like - then I wait again, etc. At the end during dollar days I like to have a couple extra dollars to be the guy with the hammer on the 2 or 3 guys I want for cheap.

This strategy has worked very very well.

Also yes, I use a calculator that I have created myself.

You raise a good point, Ken. I my experience, it depends on when people stop spending aggressively. In our league there have been years during which a team filled with those reasonably priced players did not produce enough stats to make up for the lack of some of the expensive players. We have an owner who typically likes to control the mid- and end-game and, in recent years, his team rarely has enough offense to stack up. It is hard to generate enough counting stats from the equivalent of 13 $15 hitters plus two decent catchers…but I think I will do an exercise this weekend, based on last year’s draft results, to see the total accumulated stats such a team would have generated (I will mix in a few $20 hitters and $10 hitters to vary it a bit).

[Ken]

You raise a good point, Ken. I my experience, it depends on when people stop spending aggressively. In our league there have been years during which a team filled with those reasonably priced players did not produce enough stats to make up for the lack of some of the expensive players. We have an owner who typically likes to control the mid- and end-game and, in recent years, his team rarely has enough offense to stack up. It is hard to generate enough counting stats from the equivalent of 13 $15 hitters plus two decent catchers…but I think I will do an exercise this weekend, based on last year’s draft results, to see the total accumulated stats such a team would have generated (I will mix in a few $20 hitters and $10 hitters to vary it a bit).

If your $ values are correctly tied to your league categories and standings then IMO they should directly relate to the ability to field a winning team. We all like having that rock solid star, but truly if your projections are correct and you balance your team well then getting the $ value will be getting standings points, regardless if you are spreading that out in the middle or spending big at the start.

So it's unclear here which of the following is the case from your experience:

1) Bad projections source or bad luck with projections - obviously predicting the future is an inexact science. With enough leagues it should even out but obviously some bad experience with projections can leave a sour taste
2) Incorrectly applying $ values based on your exact league format. This one is really hard btw. IMO using someone else's $ values doesnt work. Your calculator needs to apply projections directly to your categories in the specific league AND directly to how your league tends to distribute those categories. For example if you have 3 teams every year who punt saves and basically getting 0, then in your league having a single closer with a half share of saves has some value but after that saves aren't worth as much as they would be if teams evenly distributed them and having 3 or 4 more could move you up 5 spots in the standings.
3) Lots of sharks in your league make it difficult to win even when you get good values - if you are finding yourself in 3rd or 4th every year this may be the case.

**Note by "you" I mean this in the general sense, applying to the individual team we may be talking about that employs a specific strategy, not "you" as in the person on this board talking about it.

[Ken]

On the hitting side, I'd say around half way down the list it starts showing accurate inflated dollar values.
On the pitching side, values start at the top. Verlander and Nola at $45, no one will pay that. Diaz at $34, he'll go for about that.

why would no one pay $45? If that's what they are worth and no one will pay it... then you should (unless you just have an issue with the player and think the projection is wrong ... in which case if you are running your own calculator, adjust the projection).

It always confuses me when people say they have a value on a player but wont pay it. If not, then your number is wrong and you need to adjust the source that's giving you that number.

[The Feral Slasher]

On the hitting side, I'd say around half way down the list it starts showing accurate inflated dollar values.
On the pitching side, values start at the top. Verlander and Nola at $45, no one will pay that. Diaz at $34, he'll go for about that.

I was wondering if something was wrong with the inputs somehow....but it sounds like there is a mix of higher and lower values, so probably good there. There has been lots of good discussion on the thread so far, in simple terms I would say that if you believe the projections used, the correct move is to purchase players that are not being bid up to the projected value and avoiding those that go over. Lots of times this would mean you wouldn't get the superstars, especially the hitters.

[whalewang]

why would no one pay $45? If that's what they are worth and no one will pay it... then you should (unless you just have an issue with the player and think the projection is wrong ... in which case if you are running your own calculator, adjust the projection).

It always confuses me when people say they have a value on a player but wont pay it. If not, then your number is wrong and you need to adjust the source that's giving you that number.

I re-ran using ATC, which sounds like projects the pitching better than the BAT X, and Verlander is at $40, Nola at $37, Fried at $27. Those prices are probably appropriate for our league.
For my team, I have Burnes as my pitching anchor and think I Verlander got lucky and will regress from last year.