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Thoughts on him this year?
He was having a nice first half until a shoulder injury, a horrific strand rate, and the results thereafter destroyed his second half. Most projections have him with an ERA in the low 4s and modest win totals. It seemed he was taking a progressive step forward on his nice 2009 debut when everything fell apart.
It seems Shandler has the highest expectations of him with 14 wins and an ERA under 4.00. For some reason, I think there is potential here. His xERA doesn't seem to support his first half, but I think he's a guy who could post 15 wins from his No3 slot with an ERA around 3.75 and 7.0 k/9. His second half tanked his 2010 control rate, and I'm thinking a healthy Niemann equals a walk rate near 1H numbers. If that's the case, it would make sense that a solid WHIP will follow.
I'm thinking: 15W, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 200 IP, 155-160 K.
He was having a nice first half until a shoulder injury, a horrific strand rate, and the results thereafter destroyed his second half. Most projections have him with an ERA in the low 4s and modest win totals. It seemed he was taking a progressive step forward on his nice 2009 debut when everything fell apart.
It seems Shandler has the highest expectations of him with 14 wins and an ERA under 4.00. For some reason, I think there is potential here. His xERA doesn't seem to support his first half, but I think he's a guy who could post 15 wins from his No3 slot with an ERA around 3.75 and 7.0 k/9. His second half tanked his 2010 control rate, and I'm thinking a healthy Niemann equals a walk rate near 1H numbers. If that's the case, it would make sense that a solid WHIP will follow.
I'm thinking: 15W, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 200 IP, 155-160 K.
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