2K11: Mark Reynolds

[DJBeasties]

Just hopped into the AL East and into a ballpark that is plenty HR-friendly. This bodes well for Reynolds run-creating strengths.

The worst thing in this power profile (and what makes it almost intolerable) is the 58% contact rate. That is as bad as it gets for a MLB-regular. Plus, his contact rate is on a 5-year decline. Where does it stabilize?

The 26% hit rate (.260 BABIP) is five points lower than his previous careeer-low. In fact, Reynolds has posted hit rates of 36%, 34% and 33% in other seasons. A rebound of good bounces should be a realistic expectation in 2011.

This means that even with a ~ 60% ct rate that Reynolds could still hit .240 and hit 40 HRs. He's healthy, been healthy, has full-time ABs tucked away in a comfy HR-park and has been probably overlooked.

A little hit rate agreeableness and you have a pretty favorable player.

[Gregg]

So that means if his 5 year declining hit rate is not done declining you could end up with a sub .198 ba to go along with 25 hrs......I'm in.

[kldub4life]

Career BABIP:
2007: 378
2008: 323
2009: 338
2010: 257

I think there is a better chance that his 2011 BABIP will be 323 or higher rather than lower.

I'm banking on a +230 BA which I think will produce at least 35 homers and 100 RBI's (assuming health), I also think he is a solid bet for 10 steals.

But it remains to be seen.

[DJBeasties]

So that means if his 5 year declining hit rate is not done declining you could end up with a sub .198 ba to go along with 25 hrs......I'm in.

I think you mixed up the sentences. His contact rate is in a 5 year decline, but yeah the point is the same. Another year of sub-60 CT and an unfavorable hit rate you'll be looking at a .185 hitter. I just think no one could be worse than a 58% contact rate and a 26% hit rate and still play all year.

Put me down for

.235
35 HR
95 RBI
70 Runs
10 SB