Just hopped into the AL East and into a ballpark that is plenty HR-friendly. This bodes well for Reynolds run-creating strengths.
The worst thing in this power profile (and what makes it almost intolerable) is the 58% contact rate. That is as bad as it gets for a MLB-regular. Plus, his contact rate is on a 5-year decline. Where does it stabilize?
The 26% hit rate (.260 BABIP) is five points lower than his previous careeer-low. In fact, Reynolds has posted hit rates of 36%, 34% and 33% in other seasons. A rebound of good bounces should be a realistic expectation in 2011.
This means that even with a ~ 60% ct rate that Reynolds could still hit .240 and hit 40 HRs. He's healthy, been healthy, has full-time ABs tucked away in a comfy HR-park and has been probably overlooked.
A little hit rate agreeableness and you have a pretty favorable player.
The worst thing in this power profile (and what makes it almost intolerable) is the 58% contact rate. That is as bad as it gets for a MLB-regular. Plus, his contact rate is on a 5-year decline. Where does it stabilize?
The 26% hit rate (.260 BABIP) is five points lower than his previous careeer-low. In fact, Reynolds has posted hit rates of 36%, 34% and 33% in other seasons. A rebound of good bounces should be a realistic expectation in 2011.
This means that even with a ~ 60% ct rate that Reynolds could still hit .240 and hit 40 HRs. He's healthy, been healthy, has full-time ABs tucked away in a comfy HR-park and has been probably overlooked.
A little hit rate agreeableness and you have a pretty favorable player.
Comment