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2k12: Chris Sale

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  • 2k12: Chris Sale

    From Buster Olney:

    ELIAS: Chris Sale is the youngest pitcher to strike out 15+ in a game since Mark Prior struck out 16 in 2003.
    I point this out because based on his motion and the fact that he's already had elbow issues, the likelihood of his elbow staying intact is probably on par with Prior's. The White Sox thought they were going to have to convert him to closer when his elbow flared up, but that miraculously went away and now he's back in the rotation.

    Still, so far this season Sale has 57.2 innings, 9.52 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 47.7% GB rate and a 2.45 FIP. He's been one of the best pitchers in the AL.

    I would think of him as the ultimate sell-high candidate but how cheap would you sell him? For the equivalent of a $20 hitter in an AL-only league (somewhere in the Swisher-Teixieira-Joyce range)? Or would you hold out for someone in the $25+ range (A Gonz, Pedroia, Beltre) and be willing to eat the profit if Sale's arm implodes?

    If he stays healthy I think he'll stay pretty close to this pace (3.00ish ERA, 9+ K/9) for another 100-120 innings. But that's a big risk.

  • #2
    Add another factor...what if you have him in a keeper league for $4? Redraft league and I'd take Tex easily. Keeper league and I'm not so sure.

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    • #3
      Understand, he was facing the equivalent of a split squad lineup yesterday that included:

      Drew Sutton hitting cleanup
      Jose Lobation DHing & hitting 5th
      career minor leaguer Rick Thompson
      Jose Molina
      Will Rhymes who is hitless on the season vs LHP in 21 PA now

      I predicted in the 1st inning on Twitter yesteday he would have 10 K's by the 5th and he sure enough did. It was fun to watch him work yesterday but he's not going to see a lot of crappy lineups like that the rest of the way.

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      • #4
        I don't think we see 15 Ks every outing like yesterday but he was pitching pretty good before that game also. In a redraft I sell high but, like Lucky, I have him in a keeper league so I don't know. I am leaning on keeping him and hoping for no injury but any comparison to Prior makes me worry.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by dslaw View Post
          I don't think we see 15 Ks every outing like yesterday but he was pitching pretty good before that game also. In a redraft I sell high but, like Lucky, I have him in a keeper league so I don't know. I am leaning on keeping him and hoping for no injury but any comparison to Prior makes me worry.
          Well, Prior had perfect mechanics and Sale's mechanics are a hot mess, so that should clear things right up for you

          This is old, but he still has that crazy low 3/4 delivery so it probably still applies: http://projectprospect.com/forums/vi...php?f=6&t=6378

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          • #6
            Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
            Well, Prior had perfect mechanics and Sale's mechanics are a hot mess, so that should clear things right up for you

            This is old, but he still has that crazy low 3/4 delivery so it probably still applies: http://projectprospect.com/forums/vi...php?f=6&t=6378
            If his elbow doesn't go, his shoulder is next. Bringing up the elbow that high can't be good for this shoulder. Even in a keeper league I'd sell where I have him for $4 I sell. I don't necessarily believe TINNSTAAPP, but pitchers are inherently time bombs. We just don't know the fuse length.

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            • #7
              So, he had the same mechanics in 2007 as he does now...does that work for him or against him? His high inning year was somewhere around 136 in 2010. Is the concern that more of a workload will combine with the mechanical flaws to injure him?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Lucky View Post
                So, he had the same mechanics in 2007 as he does now...does that work for him or against him? His high inning year was somewhere around 136 in 2010. Is the concern that more of a workload will combine with the mechanical flaws to injure him?
                My concern is fundamentally more simple. He's a pitcher and one with violent mechanics. He'll get injured eventually. Given that he's already had an injury scare this season, my money is on Sale getting injured sooner rather than later. Enjoy the profits and move him for a solid bat.

                Is your league a mixed or only league?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by JudeBaldo View Post
                  My concern is fundamentally more simple. He's a pitcher and one with violent mechanics. He'll get injured eventually. Given that he's already had an injury scare this season, my money is on Sale getting injured sooner rather than later. Enjoy the profits and move him for a solid bat.
                  Agree - the only reason I'd take a chance and keep Sale at $4 is if my team is already so tanked that I'm likely rebuilding for the year anyway. If I could get a $20ish Tex for my $4 Sale, I'd jump on the deal with both feet.
                  I'm just here for the baseball.

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                  • #10
                    I dealt him in a huge deal yesterday in a keeper league ($9) and this thread is making me fee better about it.

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