Annual WDIK Question: NL Only

[luckyheel]

NL only $260 5x5 9 team league with HR/RBI/SB/AVG/R and W/S/ERA/WHIP/kd9

So, our NL league is into "expansion" mode going from 9 teams to 10 teams. I dumped last year and have quite a few potential keepers. We typically can keep 10; however, due to expansion, we can only keep 8 at first, then as players are taken in the expansion draft from our roster, we can add a 9th and 10th keeper.

So, here are my potential keepers. I have * the 8 that I think are the best ones to absolutely keep. I'd like thoughts on these. Obviously, depending on if/who is taken from my roster, the ** are the next two and the *** are the next two.

Posey-10 *
Gaby Sanchez-4 *
D Espinosa-5 *
Goldschmidt-5 *
Belt-9 **
Heyward-13 *
Freeman-5 *
Domonic Brown-5 ***
Gamel-7 **
Bryce Harper-8
Brett Wallace-3
Jerry Sands-5
Schierholtz-3
Beachy-5 *
Jurrjens-5 *

[Judge Jude]

Can you make trades? Harper is hyped beyond belief and has a shot to make the opening day roster, possibly.
Not so sold on Espinosa in a 10-team NL.
When do you have to decide? If Heyward gets hurt again in spring training.....

[luckyheel]

Can you make trades? Harper is hyped beyond belief and has a shot to make the opening day roster, possibly.
Not so sold on Espinosa in a 10-team NL.
When do you have to decide? If Heyward gets hurt again in spring training.....

Yes, we can make trades....I've tried a few owners, but no one is biting right now. I offered Sanchez, Brown and Espinosa for either a $29 Kemp or a $26 Upton and the owner wanted to keep both of those guys...can't blame him.

Don't have to decide until the second week in March.

[willthethrill]

I'm ok with Espinsoa for 5. I might rather have Harper or Belt than Jurrjens, depending on how things shake out. The hype around Belt and Harper could reach a high level in the spring. I'd look to cash out if it does. I generally prefer keeping hitters to pitchers which is why I say that Belt or Harper might be preferred over Jurrjens.

Brown is a no for me. He's no going to see the majors before September unless there's an injury to one of the Phils starting outfielders.

[Gregg]

It is a keeper league, you need to protect Harper. How valuable is he? In our league there is not a single player on your team that the Harper owner would trade for straight up.

I would keep him over Jurrjens in a heartbeat. If you expose Jurrgens and he takes him you get Belt back. If he takes Belt you get Jurrgens back.

[chancellor]

You've gotta keep Harper, especially at 8, IMO. I'd not only give up Jurrjens before him, I'd give up Madeofglass Heyward, too. And even as a Brewer homer, I keep Belt before Gamel, too.

[luckyheel]

It is a keeper league, you need to protect Harper. How valuable is he? In our league there is not a single player on your team that the Harper owner would trade for straight up.

I would keep him over Jurrjens in a heartbeat. If you expose Jurrgens and he takes him you get Belt back. If he takes Belt you get Jurrgens back.

OK...I guess I need to include our keeper/contract rules. This is not your typical A/B/C type keepers. If I keep Harper this year, I either have to sign him to multi-year contract ($5 per) or I lose him after this year. So, does that change anyone's opinion and if not, do I go $13 or $18 on him or just let him ride for $8 this year?

[Gregg]

I would easily sign him to 18. He will give you some value (maybe not profit) this year but will pay off big in years two and three.

Does this rule apply to all of the players listed? Are all of them one and done or extend at $5?

[luckyheel]

Yes, except Heyward. I signed him last year through 2013. So their prices are good next year as well. Also, Posey is in final year of contract, so he cannot be contracted or kept past this year.

[Judge Jude]

There's a chance that Harper is only worth 3 or 4 this year - but 25 in 2013. Unusual situation for your rules, but don't go 1 yr for 8.

If your league doesn't have ANYONE who has the hots for Harper longterm (to the point of irrationality), yours must be the only one in the country. Nobody remembers how much Matt Wieters owners turned down a few years back (good player getting better, but for fantasy purposes a lot of his owners kicked away pennants by keeping instead of slamming the door on a title by moving him).

[luckyheel]

Would you sign any of the other guys? I was thinking maybe 1 extra year for Sanchez, Goldschmidt and Freeman

[willthethrill]

Would you sign any of the other guys? I was thinking maybe 1 extra year for Sanchez, Goldschmidt and Freeman

I would not sign Gaby or Goldschmidt. Miami flirted with Prince this off-season and have LoMo that they may move to first base. That plus we don't know yet how the new ballpark will play (supposedly pitcher-friendly) would make me happy to take Gaby's profit this year and run.

Goldschmidt is a nice potential, but a huge potential unknown to commit to a contract. I would not risk it.

Freeman is far enough along for me to consider a small extension.