Is Dewey Evans a HOFer?

[DMT]

I'd never really considered him one but Bill James makes a compelling argument.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7555836/an-open-letter-mlb-hall-fame-dwight-evans-rightful-place-cooperstown

[joncarlos]

I love Bill James, but I think he's gone way off the rails. The hell of it is, I actually think Dewey has a solid case, but I don't like the way James goes about it.

I still think Win Shares has some value even though we've had a lot of other metrics come out since James created them - namely bWAR and fWAR. I don't necessarily buy into the "loss shares" and hitter W-L records James uses, at least in the same way I think Win Shares have value.

But what really bugs me is James' definition of "underrated" in which he conveniently omits some of the things he himself used to define underrated in the past. Namely: traded a lot (doesn't apply to Dewey), didn't play in a major market (doesn't apply), position changes (I guess Dewey moved to 1B towards the end, but doesn't really apply), and played in a pitchers' park (doesn't apply).

[Context - James used these arguments to say that DARRELL Evans was possibly the most underrated player in history. Maybe he got his Evanses confused]

Evans has 61.8 WAR on baseball-reference. He has one true MVP-type season, 1981, where he had 6.8 WAR in a strike year (probably prorates to 8 or 9), and other than that, his best years are 6.3, 5.0 and 4.6.

His career OPS+ is 127 which is pretty good. Dave Winfield checks in at 130. Evans has a couple more WAR than Winfield, and their top 3 seasons are pretty similar (Winfield is at 8.4, 5.7, 5.3).

The first set of stats is Winfield. The second is Evans. Player rank in (·)
Black Ink Batting - 4 (421), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 152 (85), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 147 (89), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 56 (57), Average HOFer ≈ 50

Black Ink Batting - 15 (151), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 113 (183), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 68 (286), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 44 (123), Average HOFer ≈ 50

Like James says, Winfield was a little better than Dewey, I think they're closer than James gives them credit for. I also think they're both very very good players who are well above the current standards for the Hall. But I don't think either of them was really elite, or sustainably great, and so it comes down to whether you're a big hall guy or not.

[DMT]

Like James says, Winfield was a little better than Dewey, I think they're closer than James gives them credit for. I also think they're both very very good players who are well above the current standards for the Hall. But I don't think either of them was really elite, or sustainably great, and so it comes down to whether you're a big hall guy or not.

Similar players, yet one is a first-ballot HOFer, and the other denied? Maybe his specific arguments are convoluted, but how would you explain the difference in voting? Race?

[Judge Jude]

Evans made the mistake of having his best years in his 30s. Do it the "right" way, and you're Duke Snider. Players are perceived by what level they've reached around age 30. If all of your best years are early, you get full credit.

Evans was not really an elite player at age 30, and no amount of rallying was going to change that perception.

Winfield also played longer, had 3,000 hits, and was a memorable figure at the plate. He retired at just the right time, when anyone with 3,000 hits was automatic (see Brock, Lou, who also was a memorable figure, but on the bases - though the bulk of his efforts were just spinning his wheels due to the CS).

Most fans don't remember or care about Dewey Evans, and he wasn't so great that he must not be denied.

Pass.

[BigJonEmpire]

Dwight Evans was one of my favorite players growing up. He always seemed second to Jim Rice on the Red Sox, though he was the far better defensive player.

[joncarlos]

Similar players, yet one is a first-ballot HOFer, and the other denied? Maybe his specific arguments are convoluted, but how would you explain the difference in voting? Race?

Like Judge Judge said, he got 3000 hits, he played on a championship team late in his career... he rode off into the sunset about as well as anyone ever has. How do you not vote for that guy? He also hit a few points higher than Dewey, and did it when a lot of people cared about AVG. Nobody noticed that Evans had a better OBP. Basically, Winfield did everything right to get elected, and Evans did everything wrong, but if you ignore the superficials, their actual impacts were pretty similar.

I also think the race thing, while you're saying it jokingly, is a bit overrated at times. Not that it's not a factor, but when you have an outspoken, gregarious guy like Winfield I don't think it's nearly as much of a negative.

[Don Quixote]

His name is not one that comes to mind when the phrase "someone not in the HOF who deserves to be there" comes up. Excellent player in the second half of his career, but not HOF.

[DJBeasties]

His name is not one that comes to mind when the phrase "someone not in the HOF who deserves to be there" comes up. Excellent player in the second half of his career, but not HOF.

Though this goes against BJE's recommendation in the Lifeline thread, this is exactly how I feel about Dewey.

[TS Garp]

Definitely not a Hall of Famer, although he certainly had a great career. You can make much more compelling cases for Dick Allen, Alan Trammell, and even Steve Garvey. As I've said before, the worst omission is Tim Raines.

[Judge Jude]

"even Steve Garvey"

Garvey's career-BEST OPS+ was 137
Got 200 hits a year because he was only walking 30-something times
.329 career OBP, blech
rarely made an error - and rarely made a play more than a foot away from him

memorable moments, obviously - just ask a Cubs fan
excellent postseason player, even given 8 BB in 232 PA - .338, 11-31

but no

[TS Garp]

Got 200 hits a year because he was only walking 30-something times

Give me a break.

[chancellor]

Given Dewey's late-age improvements, I'm surprised I haven't seen a discussion open on steroid use. Greatest years from age 32-37? Best offensive year at age 35? Seems awfully Barry Bondsian to me. Even with that, he was twice the player and half the jackass that Jim Rice was.

And I liked watching Evans, too. IMO, he had the best RF arm of anyone not named Clemente to play the game. Not only did he have a cannon, he had near-mythical accuracy with his throws.

[DJBeasties]

Give me a break.

He had a 90% contact rate that year and a 40BB/70K ratio. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.