Offseason Trade Question

[umjewman]

So, here's the deal. I am in a 12-team, 25-man roster (plus 15 more in a supplemental draft), $280 salary cap league (OBP instead of AVG). Sorry for the marathon post, just trying to think out loud.

I have been offered the following deal:

$39 David Wright (due extension. So basically one year)
$19 Ted Lilly (due extension. So basically one year).
$2 Jerry Hairston (first year. Whatever, just a throw in, probably won't be kept)

for

$10 Mat Latos (expiring after 2012).

Last year was the first year we had 12 teams and the inflation on hitting was intense (Pujols went for $66, Prince for $63, Hanley for $61, Kemp $54, Holliday $49, for example), while the pitching was about where it normally was (Halladay was the most expensive pitcher and he went $39, with Cliff Lee a close second at $37). So, I think Wright at $39 has some considerable value, especially with the fences coming in. Hairston I probably wouldn't keep, and Lilly is decent, but probably just at value.

Latos is certainly a great value at $10 and I'm hesitant to part with him, but I could see something being there, especially given my possible keepers (see below). Other cheap guys he has on his roster that might make for sweeteners or in place of Lilly are: $3 Angel Pagan (due extension); $1 Juan Francisco (first year); $1 Kyle Blanks (first year); $2 David Hernandez (first year); $3 Fernado Salas (first year).

Here are players currently on my roster that could potentially be keepers (granted, many of them will ultimately be cut, but this gives you an idea of the composition of my roster):

Ronny Paulino- $1 (first year)
Josh Thole- $6 (due extension)
Joey Votto- $20 (through 2013)
Ruben Tejada- $1 (first year)
Paul Goldschmidt- $5 (first year)
Ryan Braun- $20 (last year)
Jesus Guzman- $3 (first year)
Juan Rivera- $8 (first year)
Drew Stubbs- $10 (last year)
Adam LaRoche- $16 (first year)
Freddy Sanchez- $2 (first year)
Evereth Cabrera- $1 (first year)
Tommy Hanson- $15 (through 2013)
Mat Latos- $10 (last year)
Madison Bumgarner- $2 (due extension)
Pedro Beato- $1 (first year)
Matt Belisle- $1 (first year)
Bobby Parnell- $1 (first year)
Jeff Samardzija- $2 (first year)
Kris Medlen- $2 (first year)
Dustin Moseley- $6 (first year)
Edinson Volquez- $7 (due extension)
Eric Surkamp- $1 (first year)

MLEs:
Matt Harvey
Jarrod Parker
Zach Wheeler

[BuckyBuckner]

My first thought is with Votto and Goldschmidt you would be shutting off the corner position at the draft. Hanson, Bumgarner and Latos is a great start to your pitching staff. I'm not sure I'd give up that much value going into the draft.

What if you dangled something like Volquez and Jesus Guzman? Would those guys have any value in your league (which looks like an NL only right)? They would have some value in my NL only league.

[Gregg]

So will all those high priced guys be kept?

At first blush I am not a fan of the offer. I do not like Lilly at $19. He can keep Hairston. Ask him what single good keeper he will add in place of Lilly and Hairston.

[umjewman]

So will all those high priced guys be kept?

At first blush I am not a fan of the offer. I do not like Lilly at $19. He can keep Hairston. Ask him what single good keeper he will add in place of Lilly and Hairston.

Bucky, your idea is a little intriguing. I am going to throw that one out there.

Gregg, some of those high priced guys will be kept, although even if they're not, they're probably going at least close to those numbers again, meaning a $39 Wright is a decent deal.

I agree that I don't love Lilly at $19. I'm going to see what else is available instead.

[Gregg]

Given the information on inflation that you have provided, I would be talking to the Kemp owner.

[Moonlight J]

I don't like Lilly at all in this deal.

[umjewman]

Thanks for the opinions. So, he came back and dropped Latos. Now the proposed deal is:

I trade:

$1 Jarrod Parker (MLE) and $5 Domonic Brown (first year, lost MLE status)

I receive:

David Wright ($39), Nick Masset ($2), and Bobby Borchering (MLE).

Quality of the deal probably depends a lot on whether you believe in Domonic Brown and/or whether you believe Masset will be the closer. I tend to lean towards acceptance, especially given both the inflation and that my team is probably suited to contend this year.

MJ, you don't have to answer, you already told me you would do the deal

Thanks in advance.

[BuckyBuckner]

Braun, Votto and Wright with Hanson, Latos and Bumgarner. Great start.

I'd do it even though it ties up your corner spots.

[SeaDogStat]

Even better after Parker went to the A's...great timing