AL only auction keepers - help me with the last 3

[SlideRule]

Who wants to help me pick my last few keepers? AL only auction league (10 teams, standard categories, $260, ~25% inflation, 3-year keepers). Here's my current list in rough order of value, I think. Who makes the cut for the top eight?

Keep for sure:
Glasnow $3 A
Kirby $5 A
Gilbert $2 B
A Rosario $7 B
Cease $17 A

Probably:
Sewald $3 A
Fairbanks $7 A

On the fence:
Heim $1 A
Bader $6 A
Benintendi $8 A

Meh:
M Perez $3 A
J Mateo $8 A
Urquidy $5 A
Haase $2 B


Seem about right? Keep the top 5, then Sewald & Fairbanks, and 1 of Heim/Bader/Benintendi? Probably Heim as this league (2-C) tends to price catchers highly.

[Pauly]

Not bad. Im really into Bader myself, but looking at this and considering what you wrote, I would package a probably and a fence (Heim and Sewald?) and see if it gets you another "for sure player"

[wombat104]

My 3 would be: Bader, Benintendi and Haase.

Haase vs Urquidy was close for me, but since you had some pitching already I went Haase.

[The Feral Slasher]

Fairbanks,Bader, and either benintendi or Mateo probably. Don't think sewald is secure as closer.

[madducks]

I like Bader and Benintendi because of their power/speed potential.

I don't think any closer job is secure anymore. Last year we saw two of the best closers in Chapman and Hader (temporarily) lose their jobs. Plus, Rays manager Kevin Cash has been a fantasy baseball thorn in my side with how he uses pitchers unconventionally.

I hate to use a keeper spot on a catcher that isn't an all-star and is out of the lineup three or four days a week. They can usually be had for cheap in the auction.

And why no love for LHP Martin Perez? Does everyone think that last year was a fluke? The Rangers are paying him $19.65 million this year. So, the Rangers are believers. Plus, he should get plenty of run support with that offense.

Urquidy is decent, but Hunter Brown could take his job by mid-season if not earlier.

I considered Mateo as well. He should benefit from the new "maximum 3 pickoffs rule" and the larger bases. But, he still has trouble getting on base and loses at bats hitting at the bottom of the order.

So, my three are:

Bader
Benintendi
M. Perez

edit: I just saw that it's a 2 catcher league. But, I will stick with my 3 picks.

[madducks]

I think the old adage of "take skills over positions" applies here. I would wait to take closers and catchers at the auction.

[The Feral Slasher]

I like Bader and Benintendi because of their power/speed potential.

I don't think any closer job is secure anymore. Last year we saw two of the best closers in Chapman and Hader (temporarily) lose their jobs. Plus, Rays manager Kevin Cash has been a fantasy baseball thorn in my side with how he uses pitchers unconventionally.

I hate to use a keeper spot on a catcher that isn't an all-star and is out of the lineup three or four days a week. They can usually be had for cheap in the auction.

And why no love for LHP Martin Perez? Does everyone think that last year was a fluke? The Rangers are paying him $19.65 million this year. So, the Rangers are believers. Plus, he should get plenty of run support with that offense.

Urquidy is decent, but Hunter Brown could take his job by mid-season if not earlier.

I considered Mateo as well. He should benefit from the new "maximum 3 pickoffs rule" and the larger bases. But, he still has trouble getting on base and loses at bats hitting at the bottom of the order.

So, my three are:

Bader
Benintendi
M. Perez

edit: I just saw that it's a 2 catcher league. But, I will stick with my 3 picks.

Interesting question. The obvious answer is he doesn't get many K's which is a huge red flag for many. He had a miniscule HR/FB rate last year that is likely to at least double. The projections all show him likely to have an ERA close to 4, with not a huge amount of stirkeouts. He does get a lot of groundballs, not sure if the shift rules will impact that. All that said, at 3 bucks he is not a bad guy to keep in a 10 team AL only league. Outside of the "keep for sure guys" he could be considered.

[Pauly]

I mean if in 6 months we wrote right in this post that it turns out Martin Perez was a total fluke, would anyone be surprised?

[The Feral Slasher]

I mean if in 6 months we wrote right in this post that it turns out Martin Perez was a total fluke, would anyone be surprised?

not me...projections do not like him at all. I'd rather take some of the other guys. For me it would be 3 out of Fairbanks, Bader, Benitendi and Mateo

[bryanbutler]

As an O's fan I am not sold on Mateo. The O's have a crowded IF as it is, with the acquisition of Frazier, and Connor Norby is knocking at the door. And Mateo really only has SB to offer. With a BB:K ratio of 0.16 and a resultant OBA of .271 (yes, that's OBA, not AVG), I'm passing at $8. You can't steal first base, as the saying goes...

[SlideRule]

I agree on Perez and Mateo, that's why they are in the bottom rung. Also about the catchers although this league has a history of overpaying for them so the guys like Heim and Haase will end up going for $10-12. I know, doesn't mean I need to do it too, just saying. I think I like the upside of Bader over Benintendi, but would have a hard time not keeping cheap "closers" however tenuous they may inherently be here in 2023.

[Moonlight J]

Fairbanks
Heim
Sewald

[SlideRule]

A wrinkle: I got an offer of Tristan McKenzie $10 B for Bader $6 A and Fairbanks $7A. I'm not as high on McKenzie as some rankings seem to put him this year, but is that an upgrade worth making? Would make my "last 3" keepers:
McKenzie $10
Sewald $3
Heim $1

[cool hand]

Fairbanks & Sewald are no brainers in a 10 team only.
You could make a case for any of the rest, or just keep 7.

[cavebird]

As an O's fan I am not sold on Mateo. The O's have a crowded IF as it is, with the acquisition of Frazier, and Connor Norby is knocking at the door. And Mateo really only has SB to offer. With a BB:K ratio of 0.16 and a resultant OBA of .271 (yes, that's OBA, not AVG), I'm passing at $8. You can't steal first base, as the saying goes...

Mateo is also easily the best defensive INF the Orioles have. No, he can't hit, but the glove can keep him in the lineup enough (Adam Frazier?) that he can get 8-10 HR and 25-30 SB. (And Joey Ortiz as well as Norby knocking on the door). I would guess he gets 400-450 AB's this year (Mateo) and earn far more than $8, but I don't think he's a keeper at that price given his risk makes him cheaper at auction. In a 10-team AL only, he's great late.