After a torrid start to his career that resulted in a Rookie of the Year and MVP award by age 23, Cody Bellinger has arguably been one of the worst regulars in baseball over the last 3 seasons. Since the start of the '20 season, he has a 74 OPS+ and has fewer homers over those three seasons combined than he did in 2019 alone.
His K% rate has ballooned to 27.3% from 16.3% in 2019, and his BB% has plunged to 6.9% from 14.4% during his MVP season. His HardH% is also down to 38.2% from 49.0%. More troubling is his ability to hit fastballs: his wFB went from 30.1 in 2019 to as low as -15.2 in 2021, before it rebounded a bit to 4.0 in '22. Still, he was negative runs above average on all other pitches.
While all these negatives should make Belly a late round pick at best, fantasy players are still believers, as Belly has an ADP of 182, making him a mid-draft pick and a somewhat worthy gamble.
So what to make of him? Is the Mendoza-line Belly of '20-'22 the best we can hope for? Is there any chance at all he regains his previous greatness, or even a smidge of it? Or does the dramatic decline continue and he loses his job, or worse, is cut or demoted?
His K% rate has ballooned to 27.3% from 16.3% in 2019, and his BB% has plunged to 6.9% from 14.4% during his MVP season. His HardH% is also down to 38.2% from 49.0%. More troubling is his ability to hit fastballs: his wFB went from 30.1 in 2019 to as low as -15.2 in 2021, before it rebounded a bit to 4.0 in '22. Still, he was negative runs above average on all other pitches.
While all these negatives should make Belly a late round pick at best, fantasy players are still believers, as Belly has an ADP of 182, making him a mid-draft pick and a somewhat worthy gamble.
So what to make of him? Is the Mendoza-line Belly of '20-'22 the best we can hope for? Is there any chance at all he regains his previous greatness, or even a smidge of it? Or does the dramatic decline continue and he loses his job, or worse, is cut or demoted?
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