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SeaDogStat Memorial League picks and discussion

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  • #31
    Originally posted by bryanbutler View Post
    I'm happy I got my 2 SP, and was worried about what you're predicting, Todd - a big run on SP. 24 picks until it's back to me, and I'd be clearly out of the top tier. deGrom is a bit of an injury risk, but I'm hoping the new digs will help him return to form. No, I don't have any IF yet, but I'm still OK with Judge and the 2 SP. I haven't done a draft in years. Probably 20 years, at least. Though I did participate in some of the mocks here on RJ back in the day. Anyway, this is all just kind of chucking darts for me, so pretty fun. I'm not working off of any lists, projections, etc., just winging it. Which is what makes it so fun .
    Dude--that's twice you sniped my pick--stop hacking my Queue!!
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
      Dude--that's twice you sniped my pick--stop hacking my Queue!!
      I knew there was no way Hader was making it past you twice at the turn ...
      "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

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      • #33
        Originally posted by bryanbutler View Post
        I knew there was no way Hader was making it past you twice at the turn ...
        You weren't wrong!
        If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

        Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
        Martin Luther King, Jr.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Ken View Post
          Cherry picking this comment specifically because it comes from you and maybe you can talk some sense into me - your posts are very logical and stat based and align with how I think.

          I've heard this comment about the top end 3B tier being short. I think that's absolutely correct. What I don't grasp is why I should care about that.

          The reality is that in a draft format it's impossible to have an elite player at each position. You are going to end up with some positions that are upper tier and some that are lower. You may have a player in a different tier and realize some extra value in that situation if a player drops who you don't think should - but that's an issue with a delta between projections, not an issue with the overall market where everyone agrees that there's a small top tier for 3B.

          So fundamentally, if we simplify the draft down to just 3B and everything else, I can have a great 3B and a replacement level player at some other position, OR I can have a replacement level player at 3B and a great player at another position.

          But that isn't new - that's true for all positions and all years. Why does that change whether I specifically want an elite 3B? It doesn't give me an advantage explicitly to do so. Because by taking JoRam I'm not taking another 1st round talent.

          I've seen talk about taking him 1.01, which on it's face I have no problem with, but just for the sake of taking a 3B because of the depth of 3B, I don't understand.

          For me, the important point is replacement level. Because I have that choice of taking JoRam and a replacement at another position (lets say SS) or taking an elite SS and a replacement 3B (I'm simplifying here, obviously I could take an elite 3B and SS and suffer elsewhere).

          But to demonstrate why this confuses me, lets look at real numbers. If we use TheBATX and compare JoRam + a 20th round SS (looks like Ha-Song Kim comes in around rd 17 right now, I'll use him) I come up with the following stats:

          42 HR
          29 SB
          150 R
          178 RBI
          .259 Avg across 1267 AB

          By comparison (since people are taking JoRam 1.01), if I take Trea Turner and then around Rd 20 his brother from another mother Justin (Turner), I get:

          38 HR
          30 SB
          159 R
          144 RBI
          .274 Avg across 1240 AB

          So I lose out on some RBI and gain some AVG and R. Overall pretty close to a wash.

          How did the fact that the guy taking the 8th 3B off the board got a much worse 3B than the guy who took the 7th 3B off the board, since there was a big drop specifically there in the rankings, affect me and suggest I want the elite 3B?
          If we know what the production will be, the math works exactly in that manner. But my round 17 counter player is different than yours which is different than Carty's. You and I will almost assuredly have someone *better* (in our minds) than the ADP or BATX.

          The nature of the pool is such that the combination of an early third baseman and the later other position is better than the other position and a third baseman, because the available third basemen in that range are generally worse than the other positions.
          Follow me on Twitter @ToddZola

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          • #35
            What's the spin rate on your pitches?
            I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Todd Zola View Post
              The nature of the pool is such that the combination of an early third baseman and the later other position is better than the other position and a third baseman, because the available third basemen in that range are generally worse than the other positions.
              I guess this is the disconnect - the description I've heard is that the early 3B talent drops off fast, not that the replacement level guys are weak. Maybe both are the case, but the discussions I've heard center around the fact that there are only 6 or 7 guys in the top tiers and after that it falls off.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Ken View Post
                I guess this is the disconnect - the description I've heard is that the early 3B talent drops off fast, not that the replacement level guys are weak. Maybe both are the case, but the discussions I've heard center around the fact that there are only 6 or 7 guys in the top tiers and after that it falls off.
                There probably are some drafters pushing up Arenado, Bregman and maybe Henderson to avoid the Cliffs of Insanity.

                My angle is when multiple eligiblity is factored in, there are fewer 3B eligible players. The replacement level is similar to the other position, the quantity in the draft-worthy pool is lower. The fewer options, the less of a chance one I like is available, or at least isn't as good as others still available.


                Even so, I am not jumping a third baseman just to get one. I'll cross my fingers Jeimer Candelario is available at a good spot (as a cherry-picked example).


                Jose Ramirez is my #2 overall ranking, so if I have an early pick, I will take him, but I won't jump someone else to 3, 4 or 5. I will not jump Arenado into the late second if I miss on Ramirez, others will.

                Having a late first round pick usually has one in the mix for Machado, Devers or Riley in either the first or second.

                Where it gets hairy is picking in the middle of the first and Ramirez is gone. I'm not jumping Machado up when Bichette or Tucker are available. Then, Devers, Riley and Machado are likely gone by the middle of the second.
                Follow me on Twitter @ToddZola

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                • #38
                  To me the main point is most drafters want reliable solid power from 3B (moreso than MI positions). There are only so many of those available.

                  MI lends itself to a wider variety of options including Runs, SB, BA, moderate power.

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                  • #39
                    Now that he has been taken...I was shocked how long it took for Varsho to go off the board. What am I missing here? He feels like a third or fourth rounder to me - a guy with the C who is going to play full time OF in the Toronto lineup..sign like everyone up.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Pauly View Post
                      Now that he has been taken...I was shocked how long it took for Varsho to go off the board. What am I missing here? He feels like a third or fourth rounder to me - a guy with the C who is going to play full time OF in the Toronto lineup..sign like everyone up.
                      Varsho went third round in the First Pitch Arizona Speakers Draft (same format as this).
                      For me, it was a matter of reading the room and seeing catchers don't seem to be a priority. To be honest, I had Varsho as next in my queue when I got Carroll, and had some immediate Buyer's remorse.I didn't think Varsho would make it all the way back, but my sense is there will be catchers I want and available at a decent spot.
                      Follow me on Twitter @ToddZola

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Pauly View Post
                        Now that he has been taken...I was shocked how long it took for Varsho to go off the board. What am I missing here? He feels like a third or fourth rounder to me - a guy with the C who is going to play full time OF in the Toronto lineup..sign like everyone up.
                        Picking in the middle is a challenge…I have been fortunate to pick on the ends during the past few years of doing this. I was targeting either Albies or Swanson this round but both went ahead of my pick. In looking at my options, a power hitting outfielder who I can slot at C and pick up about 100 - 150 more PA than typical catchers seemed like the right choice.
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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by ThatRogue View Post
                          Picking in the middle is a challenge…I have been fortunate to pick on the ends during the past few years of doing this. I was targeting either Albies or Swanson this round but both went ahead of my pick. In looking at my options, a power hitting outfielder who I can slot at C and pick up about 100 - 150 more PA than typical catchers seemed like the right choice.
                          I seriously considered Varsho over Teoscar
                          If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                          Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                          Martin Luther King, Jr.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by harmon View Post
                            To me the main point is most drafters want reliable solid power from 3B (moreso than MI positions). There are only so many of those available.

                            MI lends itself to a wider variety of options including Runs, SB, BA, moderate power.
                            IMO the days of 3B being a power spot vs other positions is mostly gone, we have more 3B who steal and more at other positions with power. Hanging on to the old truths doesn't do much for me personally from a draft analysis perspective.

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                            • #44
                              This is uncanny--we're through 6 rounds, Butler has only has 3 picks right before me and EVERY time he's taken the top guy in my Queue.


                              If his team wins it all, I can only think--that could have been my team!
                              If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                              Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                              Martin Luther King, Jr.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
                                This is uncanny--we're through 6 rounds, Butler has only has 3 picks right before me and EVERY time he's taken the top guy in my Queue.


                                If his team wins it all, I can only think--that could have been my team!
                                "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

                                Comment

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