RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA Top 100" Edition)

[Sour Masher]

Thanx for the response, SM.

I would rank them almost the way I have them ranked on my list. O'Hoppe is supposed to be the opening day catcher, but I wouldnt desire him more than Mervis or Caminero. Mervis I would expect will get considerable playing time later in the year, around mid-season, perhaps. Caminero likely is a long way away from MLB but I like his value as a high-upside trade chip. Barger is not on the list but he is getting some helium now and may be in MLB later in the year, altho I wouldnt expect a lot of playing time from him. Zavala is hurt and likely not back until mid-season. Plus he hasnt played above AA. I dont value any of the other 3 more than the 1st five. Off the top of my head, I probably would rank them Mervis, Caminero, O'Hoppe, Barger, Zavala.

Gracias. I have them the same way, except I was thinking of putting Barger above O'Hoppe based on how much love he got from Fangraphs. I like O'Hoppe, but I have Realmuto in the majors, so that tempers his short term value for me. Still, I kinda have Will Smith vibes from O'Hoppe, and Realmuto is pricey, so if O'Hoppe ends up as having top 6-8 catcher upside in 2023, he'd be a nice replacement catcher keeper in 2024.

But my real struggle is how to rank them in a fypd. I was thinking of taking Mervis with one of my 13-15 picks, and Caminero with pick 17 or 18. Are those reaches at those spots over guys that might be there like Jace Jung, Parada, DeLauter (post injury)? Should I wait to see if Caminero is around at 24 or 25?

[rhd]

Gracias. I have them the same way, except I was thinking of putting Barger above O'Hoppe based on how much love he got from Fangraphs. I like O'Hoppe, but I have Realmuto in the majors, so that tempers his short term value for me. Still, I kinda have Will Smith vibes from O'Hoppe, and Realmuto is pricey, so if O'Hoppe ends up as having top 6-8 catcher upside in 2023, he'd be a nice replacement catcher keeper in 2024.

But my real struggle is how to rank them in a fypd. I was thinking of taking Mervis with one of my 13-15 picks, and Caminero with pick 17 or 18. Are those reaches at those spots over guys that might be there like Jace Jung, Parada, DeLauter (post injury)? Should I wait to see if Caminero is around at 24 or 25?

I would not take any of the latter 3 over the first 2. Jung doesnt seem to be generating much excitement, Parada is a catcher and doesnt particularly interest me and DeLauter cant stay on the field. If I wanted Caminero, I'd take him sooner rather than later because w the helium he's been getting he might not be around later.

[Sour Masher]

I would not take any of the latter 3 over the first 2. Jung doesnt seem to be generating much excitement, Parada is a catcher and doesnt particularly interest me and DeLauter cant stay on the field. If I wanted Caminero, I'd take him sooner rather than later because w the helium he's been getting he might not be around later.

Good points. Thanks. Although, I do wonder if Parada does not end up off catcher. As just a hitter at another position, I like him as a top 10 guy, but hard to say if he sticks or not. Same for Dalton Rushing, although it seems even more like Rushing moves off of catcher. I like Rushing as a top 15 guy, if I was certain he quickly moved off of catcher. But as always, it is hard to predict how long/hard teams stick with these iffy catchers as catchers.

[Sharky]

Rhd, you’re the man! Thank you so much for continuing to share your list.

[rhd]

Rhd, you’re the man! Thank you so much for continuing to share your list.

Thanx, Sharky. Glad you find it useful.

[Sharky]

Thanx, Sharky. Glad you find it useful.

It also prompts some very interesting discussions (apart from the expected “why isn’t my guy/team ranked higher?”).

[cavebird]

Awesome, as always, rhd! I had questions about a couple of college players: Brayden Taylor (TCU) and Paul Skenes (LSU). Some sources I have read (okay, I'm being lazy, it's just FG) have them higher than some of the college guys you rank. Any thoughts on where they might rank? Also, now that Noah Song is no longer playing in the Naval officers league, would he be close to the list? Or is it just impossible to figure out where to rank someone who hasn't played in a couple of years?

[rhd]

Awesome, as always, rhd! I had questions about a couple of college players: Brayden Taylor (TCU) and Paul Skenes (LSU). Some sources I have read (okay, I'm being lazy, it's just FG) have them higher than some of the college guys you rank. Any thoughts on where they might rank? Also, now that Noah Song is no longer playing in the Naval officers league, would he be close to the list? Or is it just impossible to figure out where to rank someone who hasn't played in a couple of years?

Thanx for the response, cavebird.

Skenes is really rising up the draftee prospect ranks lately and is now on the the list. Taylor now is just off the list and may very well get on as the college season continues. And yeah, it's very difficult to know where to put Song. But he wasnt particularly close to the list before his absence. I'll probably have to see some performance from him before I even consider moving him close to the top 150.

BTW, speaking of college players, keep an eye on Vance Honeycutt of North Carolina. He will be a 2024 draftee but I've already put him on the list because he's considered the very early favorite to go number 1 overall next year.

[Teenwolf]

I would not take any of the latter 3 over the first 2. Jung doesnt seem to be generating much excitement, Parada is a catcher and doesnt particularly interest me and DeLauter cant stay on the field. If I wanted Caminero, I'd take him sooner rather than later because w the helium he's been getting he might not be around later.

I've fallen in love with Caminero. Drafted last spring in deep dynasty, and offseason hype has been massive. Combination of plate skills with elite exit velocities, and young age to level. Only thing missing is SB, but the bat seems special.

I also much prefer pop-up prospects (guys that played the full previous season in the minors), over new draftees. I prefer digging into numbers over scouting reports. Here's my recent picks in 18 team mixed with 15 prospects per team (270 deep). Not a single FYPD player in 7 picks.

15 - J. Caminero 3B TB (taken over Mervis)
22 - E. Julien 2B MIN (taken over Neto, Rafaela)
51 - Yasser Mercedes OF MIN
58 - Carlos Jorge 2B CIN
72 - Addison Barger SS TOR
86 - Jarlin Susana SP WAS
92 - Edgar Quero C LAA

Caminero, Julien, Barger, and Quero are all guys I picked up in dynasty last year, so I've been pleasantly surprised to see them all popping up on top 100 lists.

[Sharky]

I like pop up prospects too, but over Mervis?

[Sour Masher]

I've fallen in love with Caminero. Drafted last spring in deep dynasty, and offseason hype has been massive. Combination of plate skills with elite exit velocities, and young age to level. Only thing missing is SB, but the bat seems special.

I also much prefer pop-up prospects (guys that played the full previous season in the minors), over new draftees. I prefer digging into numbers over scouting reports. Here's my recent picks in 18 team mixed with 15 prospects per team (270 deep). Not a single FYPD player in 7 picks.

15 - J. Caminero 3B TB (taken over Mervis)
22 - E. Julien 2B MIN (taken over Neto, Rafaela)
51 - Yasser Mercedes OF MIN
58 - Carlos Jorge 2B CIN
72 - Addison Barger SS TOR
86 - Jarlin Susana SP WAS
92 - Edgar Quero C LAA

Caminero, Julien, Barger, and Quero are all guys I picked up in dynasty last year, so I've been pleasantly surprised to see them all popping up on top 100 lists.

I like your picks. Getting Barger that late is shocking. I'd have flipped Yasser and Addison as picks, but it worked out cuz you got them both anyway.

[Teenwolf]

I like pop up prospects too, but over Mervis?

Mervis is a pop-up himself!

Hitting for the power Mervis did with low K rate in AAA is impressive, but he's 5 years older than Caminero. If Caminero debuts as a 22 year old he gets to play more within his prime than Mervis. Mervis would already be on the decline when he needs to be extended.

[Teenwolf]

I like your picks. Getting Barger that late is shocking. I'd have flipped Yasser and Addison as picks, but it worked out cuz you got them both anyway.

Barger lasting that long was a surprise. I heard he didn't look great in the AFL, and might be more of a 2024 guy, but the AFL is a pretty small sample to judge him on.

Yasser Mercedes and Carlos Jorge were certainly more risky. Short season stats are much harder to read into. But I took a couple long shots trying to land a big riser. Not many big SB guys I liked available, so these 2 fit that profile. Hopefully one of the two breaks out.

I was shocked Susana and Edgar Quero lasted so late. Susana seems similar to Tink Hence (who went 2nd round). Edgar Quero compares favorably to Harry Ford, interestingly. They played the same level, with Quero 2 months younger, and Quero bested Ford across the board except BB rate and SB. I've also heard Ford added a ton of muscle, so I love them both. Getting a catcher like Quero at the very end of 270 prospects seems like a steal to me. 150 wRC+ as a 19 year old catcher in full season ball, with elite plate skills (extra high BB rate and very low K rate) and potential for a handful of SB? Sign me up.

[Teenwolf]

Regarding Aaron Zavala (OF TEX), I see Samuel Zavala (OF SD) ranked a bit higher. I've heard SZ has 70 raw, higher ceiling.

For reference, in my draft SZ went 2.13 (31st), while AZ went 4.12 (66th).

But the proximity is very different, with Aaron 22 yrs old and Samuel 18. ETA difference of 3 years. So I'd only draft SZ as a trade chip, and AZ as a quicker rebuild piece.

[Sour Masher]

Barger lasting that long was a surprise. I heard he didn't look great in the AFL, and might be more of a 2024 guy, but the AFL is a pretty small sample to judge him on.

Yasser Mercedes and Carlos Jorge were certainly more risky. Short season stats are much harder to read into. But I took a couple long shots trying to land a big riser. Not many big SB guys I liked available, so these 2 fit that profile. Hopefully one of the two breaks out.

I was shocked Susana and Edgar Quero lasted so late. Susana seems similar to Tink Hence (who went 2nd round). Edgar Quero compares favorably to Harry Ford, interestingly. They played the same level, with Quero 2 months younger, and Quero bested Ford across the board except BB rate and SB. I've also heard Ford added a ton of muscle, so I love them both. Getting a catcher like Quero at the very end of 270 prospects seems like a steal to me. 150 wRC+ as a 19 year old catcher in full season ball, with elite plate skills (extra high BB rate and very low K rate) and potential for a handful of SB? Sign me up.

Yeah, Susana and Quero were great late grabs. I assume Quero lasted that long because of an anti-catcher bias in your league (I have the same bias), but he looks really good. The only reason to discount Quero compared to Ford is that I don't see Ford staying at catcher and Quero will. But if you are in a two catcher set up, that is not a knock on Quero. Susana does look like he has a lot of potential as well. The only name on your whole draft list I don't really love is Jorge, but at that pick, it seems like a totally reasonable gamble. A great draft overall.