Early look at 2023 keepers

[virgonomic]

I am not seeing the closer love here. I am with those who say keep the top 3 and throw all the possible #4's back. Even assuming everyone keeps top type guys with all of their top 4s, that's just 55 picks. Then say they each have two more great keepers. That puts you at around 80 ADP for your Groups pick. Per the latest ADP's I have seen, you could get guys like Starling Marte, George Springer, Dansby Swanson, Bogaerts, etc. there. I'd take all of those guys above your options. Yes, I know that Romano has a high ADP, but I just don't get closers that early. Especially not two in the top 10 when they only really effect one out of ten categories. I might throw all the round 10 guys back, too. Tyler Anderson is going from a place that revives pitchers to a place that (unfortunately, sometimes literally) kills them. Bard is 37 years old, pitches in Coors, and had a 5.21 ERA/1.60 WHIP as recently as 2021. You'd be around 160 ADP at round 10. That could get you Mountcastle, Javier Baez, Ian Happ, Morton, Pablo Lopez, Jeffrey Springs, etc. there. I would take them above all of your options.

Makes sense. I have always kept 4 but there are usually good players taken to fill out the top 4 rounds. I will likely keep 3 as advised because I can always redraft these guys if I don't have better options.

[virgonomic]

I kept Ramirez, Riley, Alcantara and Tatis.

I effectively have picks 3, 9, 36. I expect picks 1-2 to be hitters. We start 1C 3OF so taking an elite C or RP might make sense - I didn't expect Clase to be thrown back. I could also take a SP to have a strong 1-2 punch.

So, who are the top 3-4 hitters based on needs?

Here are the FA:

OF CMullins
OF GSpringer
OF AGarcia
SS DSwanson
C SPerez
C WSmith
SS WAdames
1B JAbreu
OF BReynolds
OF TO'Neill
OF JMcCarthy
1B VPasquantino

SP Gonsolin Darvish Castillo Gausman Gallen Musgrove McKenzie Fried Javier
RP Clase Romano DWilliams Pressly Helsley Bautista

[Sharky]

Springer and Darvish tough to pass up. But an elite catcher also intriguing given gap until your second pick. Good luck!

[madducks]

Javier/McKenzie - future (2023?) elite pitchers IMO.
Abreu - I really like him in the middle of that Astros lineup and first base is shallow this year.
Pasquantino - unproven but has 30 HR potential and he doesn't strike out as much as I thought so I had to move him up the list.
Smith/Perez - an elite catcher is always a nice advantage to have over the rest of the league.
Carroll - also unproven but he has some serious 5 category potential.
Reynolds - he's playing for his first big contract so I expect a career year from him.
Clase - having the top closer is tempting.
Swanson - shortstop is deep so I would try to fill other spots first.
Mullins - overrated IMO...good but not elite.
Garcia - good source of power but I expect the SB numbers to regress.
McCarthy - good source of steals and runs.
Springer - I would avoid using a high pick on him due to injury risk.
Pick 31 - any of the other SP's.

[virgonomic]

Thanks for your thoughts.

Caroll is a keeper so he's out. I usually draft the best player but acquiring players who take the next step is key in a keeper league. McKenzie/Javier might fall to me at 36 and oculd be kept as a top 4 guy in the future.

The first 7 picks are a slow draft so I will likely be back once I'm on the clock.

[virgonomic]

Swanson drafted. 1 more then I'm OTC.

ETA: Here's my mock based on keepers and trends.

(Swanson)
Mullins
Clase (me)
Springer
Fried
Romano
AGarcia
Bregman
-------------------------------
Darvish (me)

[Sharky]

I just don’t see a closer there. Four or
five category production available.

[virgonomic]

I just don’t see a closer there. Four or
five category production available.

Who do you like? Are you aware it's H2H?

ETA: Bregman went, so I drafted Mullins.

[Sharky]

Who do you like? Are you aware it's H2H?

ETA: Bregman went, so I drafted Mullins.

I like it. Didn’t know it was H2H, but even so I prefer the multi category foundation for those early picks. I think youll
be happier with your pick.

[virgonomic]

Here's how the supplemental draft went:

Swanson
Bregman
Mullins
WSmith
Kwan
Clase
Adames
AGarcia

I have 1st and 28th picks in the main draft. With Alcantara, I'm thinking I should complement him with a high K guy like Darvish/Javier. WWYD?

[madducks]

I have 1st and 30th pick in the main draft. With Alcantara, I'm thinking I should complement him with a high K guy like Darvish/Javier. WWYD?

I think that's a good idea. Javier would be my choice.

Darvish, to me, still seems like a pitcher who loses his way from time to time. Just look at his inconsistent career numbers. Great one year, mediocre the next. I still look at him as a roll of the dice. Even more so as he turns age 37 this year.

I think the soon to be 26 year old Javier is ready to pitch more innings and take that next step this year. Despite having great minor league numbers, he doesn't have as much hype as other young pitchers. Even with his great numbers last year, a lot of people don't seem to be believers. I think they will be after this year.

[Sharky]

Also Darvish works slowly and supposedly could be hurt by the pitch clock rule. Javier seems a solid play.

What does the rest of your team look like? And who is available?

[Ken]

I think the soon to be 26 year old Javier is ready to pitch more innings and take that next step this year. Despite having great minor league numbers, he doesn't have as much hype as other young pitchers. Even with his great numbers last year, a lot of people don't seem to be believers. I think they will be after this year.

My experience is different. I've wanted to get Javier on several teams but he goes before I'm able to pick him - he's on average the ~20th starter off the board, ahead of guys like Manoah, Gausman, Fried, Gallen. It feels like there are a ton of believers in the market (of which I am one as well)

[virgonomic]

Also Darvish works slowly and supposedly could be hurt by the pitch clock rule. Javier seems a solid play.

What does the rest of your team look like? And who is available?

My team: JRamirez Riley Tatis Mullins Alcantara
FA: Darvish Fried Gallen Gausman Javier Gonsolin Kershaw McKenzie Castillo Musgrove

I'm set on taking a SP at Home rather than waiting until my next pick at Check in here