What to do with Verlander?

[madducks]

Did anybody get a cheap lottery ticket/potential keeper with Verlander like i did? He will be 39 next year. But, in his last full season at age 36, Verlander won 21 games with 300 K's and a 2.58 era and a 0.80 whip. Since he was a former teammate of Gerrit Cole, i suspect that he was one of the pine tar users for grip enhancement. Oh yeah, he's also a free agent at the end of the post-season. So, how much regression are you expecting from Verlander in 2022?

[Gregg]

I have him for a buck in my AL only league. I just need him to stay in the AL or I lose him.

At that price I will keep him no matter what and see what happens.

I expect him to have limited innings and still get me double digit profit.

[madducks]

Verlander is one of the very few guys that i think could pitch effectively until age 45 if he wants to.

[pitbull]

I got him for a buck. Hopefully he signed with an AL team. The Tigers might try to at least offer him a contract.

[madducks]

Justin Verlander has reached 95-96 mph in recent bullpen sessions, per Harold Reynolds of MLB Network.

The 38-year-old Verlander received a one-year, $18.4 million qualifying offer from the Astros on Sunday despite missing the entire 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.

[Gregg]

Justin Verlander has reached 95-96 mph in recent bullpen sessions, per Harold Reynolds of MLB Network.

The 38-year-old Verlander received a one-year, $18.4 million qualifying offer from the Astros on Sunday despite missing the entire 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.

I sure hope he accepts it.

[cleo]

Was Verlander around the Astros at all last season? I don't recall seeing him in the dugout during the WS. Did he go out for the pre game player introductions for the playoffs and WS?

I just wondered if he had anything to do with the team and I'm sure a Astro fan would have some info.

[Ken]

Was Verlander around the Astros at all last season? I don't recall seeing him in the dugout during the WS. Did he go out for the pre game player introductions for the playoffs and WS?

I just wondered if he had anything to do with the team and I'm sure a Astro fan would have some info.

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Where-is-Justin-Verlander-Astros-injury-tommy-john-16574508.php

"I would love to be there!," Verlander replied. "But I have rehab every damn day. I would have to monopolize the trainers for hours, the bullpen coach and catcher an hour, and strength coaches for an hour each day. I’m sure they don’t have to help any players who are ACTUALLY PLAYING."

As for the lack of tweeting about his teammates during the season, Verlander has taken the approach of a lot of other Astros: The less you post on social media, the less the anti-Astros trolls will come after you.

[ssmallz]

Here's a brief outline of a typical TJ pitcher. 1 year after he has the procedure, glowing reports come back about his velocity and pitcher is right on track or ahead of schedule. Then they either injure another part of their body during rehab (groin, shoulder, knee) b/c they had to change their delivery or they proceed through rehab and recover on time. Once that pitcher reaches the majors, it never goes smoothly. The hype train builds up after glowing minor league reports. Sometime the pitcher has a good first start where they go 4 innings but inevitably they hit a rough patch b/c their control is still lacking. Fast foward half a season where the pitcher hasn't been effective b/c they are relearning their stuff and regaining control. This is the make or break time for TJ pitchers, they either turn the corner and make a nice recovery or they never quite recover to their pre TJ levels.

Overall look at all the possible pitfalls for a TJ pitcher, do I want to bet on a 39 y/o pitcher recovering from TJ for next season? Nope, will he be good at age 40? Maybe but there's a lot that has to go right for him to get there and don't forget about the natural drop off in pitchers as they age. Add that to additional injuries risks of just being a 39 or 40 year old pitcher and no thank you, I don't want to take that risk. Sure if I have him super cheap and I have plenty of keeper slots, sure. Maybe if the rosters are super deep and I can get him super cheap, why not play the lotto but don't forget the opportunity cost of rostering a player like this. You're missing out on a flyer for another player with likely more upside and less risk

[The Feral Slasher]

Here's a brief outline of a typical TJ pitcher. 1 year after he has the procedure, glowing reports come back about his velocity and pitcher is right on track or ahead of schedule. Then they either injure another part of their body during rehab (groin, shoulder, knee) b/c they had to change their delivery or they proceed through rehab and recover on time. Once that pitcher reaches the majors, it never goes smoothly. The hype train builds up after glowing minor league reports. Sometime the pitcher has a good first start where they go 4 innings but inevitably they hit a rough patch b/c their control is still lacking. Fast foward half a season where the pitcher hasn't been effective b/c they are relearning their stuff and regaining control. This is the make or break time for TJ pitchers, they either turn the corner and make a nice recovery or they never quite recover to their pre TJ levels.

Overall look at all the possible pitfalls for a TJ pitcher, do I want to bet on a 39 y/o pitcher recovering from TJ for next season? Nope, will he be good at age 40? Maybe but there's a lot that has to go right for him to get there and don't forget about the natural drop off in pitchers as they age. Add that to additional injuries risks of just being a 39 or 40 year old pitcher and no thank you, I don't want to take that risk. Sure if I have him super cheap and I have plenty of keeper slots, sure. Maybe if the rosters are super deep and I can get him super cheap, why not play the lotto but don't forget the opportunity cost of rostering a player like this. You're missing out on a flyer for another player with likely more upside and less risk

You are correct that he carries some risk, but there are not many players with more upside than Justin Verlander

[Sour Masher]

Here's a brief outline of a typical TJ pitcher. 1 year after he has the procedure, glowing reports come back about his velocity and pitcher is right on track or ahead of schedule. Then they either injure another part of their body during rehab (groin, shoulder, knee) b/c they had to change their delivery or they proceed through rehab and recover on time. Once that pitcher reaches the majors, it never goes smoothly. The hype train builds up after glowing minor league reports. Sometime the pitcher has a good first start where they go 4 innings but inevitably they hit a rough patch b/c their control is still lacking. Fast foward half a season where the pitcher hasn't been effective b/c they are relearning their stuff and regaining control. This is the make or break time for TJ pitchers, they either turn the corner and make a nice recovery or they never quite recover to their pre TJ levels.

Overall look at all the possible pitfalls for a TJ pitcher, do I want to bet on a 39 y/o pitcher recovering from TJ for next season? Nope, will he be good at age 40? Maybe but there's a lot that has to go right for him to get there and don't forget about the natural drop off in pitchers as they age. Add that to additional injuries risks of just being a 39 or 40 year old pitcher and no thank you, I don't want to take that risk. Sure if I have him super cheap and I have plenty of keeper slots, sure. Maybe if the rosters are super deep and I can get him super cheap, why not play the lotto but don't forget the opportunity cost of rostering a player like this. You're missing out on a flyer for another player with likely more upside and less risk

This was my assessment when I included a $2 Verlander in a deal at the end of the season as well. If anyone can beat the odds, it is Verlander, and even 75% of him is still very good, but no one has come back at his age from the surgery, ever. And many who do make it back are not close to right their first year back. This is the list of all TJ surgery guys: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_John_surgery

There are a lot of success stories on that list, but most of them had the surgery young. An Athletic article from last year highlighted that out of 442 TJ surgeries to that date, 113 were performed on players over 30. Of those, ten made it back to being an All Star. As far as I can tell, none of those 10 were over 35. If anyone will do it, it will be him, but given the other options I had, no way was I keeping JV to find out.

[TranaGreg]

This was my assessment when I included a $2 Verlander in a deal at the end of the season as well. If anyone can beat the odds, it is Verlander, and even 75% of him is still very good, but no one has come back at his age from the surgery, ever. And many who do make it back are not close to right their first year back. This is the list of all TJ surgery guys: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_John_surgery

There are a lot of success stories on that list, but most of them had the surgery young. An Athletic article from last year highlighted that out of 442 TJ surgeries to that date, 113 were performed on players over 30. Of those, ten made it back to being an All Star. As far as I can tell, none of those 10 were over 35. If anyone will do it, it will be him, but given the other options I had, no way was I keeping JV to find out.

reminds me of one of my favourite baseball quotes from many years ago - I wish I could remember who it was, and I'm paraphrasing ... some pitcher going for TJ surgery when asked how concerned he was given how commonplace TJ surgery has become: "yeah, I know it's pretty routine these days, but still, I'd feel a lot better if it was the Nolan Ryan surgery ... "

[Gregg]

Here's a brief outline of a typical TJ pitcher. 1 year after he has the procedure, glowing reports come back about his velocity and pitcher is right on track or ahead of schedule. Then they either injure another part of their body during rehab (groin, shoulder, knee) b/c they had to change their delivery or they proceed through rehab and recover on time. Once that pitcher reaches the majors, it never goes smoothly. The hype train builds up after glowing minor league reports. Sometime the pitcher has a good first start where they go 4 innings but inevitably they hit a rough patch b/c their control is still lacking. Fast foward half a season where the pitcher hasn't been effective b/c they are relearning their stuff and regaining control. This is the make or break time for TJ pitchers, they either turn the corner and make a nice recovery or they never quite recover to their pre TJ levels.

Overall look at all the possible pitfalls for a TJ pitcher, do I want to bet on a 39 y/o pitcher recovering from TJ for next season? Nope, will he be good at age 40? Maybe but there's a lot that has to go right for him to get there and don't forget about the natural drop off in pitchers as they age. Add that to additional injuries risks of just being a 39 or 40 year old pitcher and no thank you, I don't want to take that risk. Sure if I have him super cheap and I have plenty of keeper slots, sure. Maybe if the rosters are super deep and I can get him super cheap, why not play the lotto but don't forget the opportunity cost of rostering a player like this. You're missing out on a flyer for another player with likely more upside and less risk

This was a great post and represents what I love most about RJ.

I have Verlander for a buck and a roster slot for him. It is an AL only 5x5 12 teamer $260 budget with a reserve roster of 13 players. Historically auction end game (pre-reserve) pitchers go for a buck or two. They are usually middle relievers or speculative injured players. I can usually find some good MR in the reserve round. I say these things as it lessens the idea of opportunity cost.

Verlander is opportunity as sure as any of the last few players at auction. If he is bad I can bench him and wait using one of the MRs I have reserve round drafted. Or pick up the hot hand with FAAB for his slot (always some pleasant surprises there) dropping him if needed.

Then there is the fun factor. If I am right Woo Hoo!! If I am wrong eh he only cost me a buck.

[Gregg]

Justin Verlander has reached 95-96 mph in recent bullpen sessions, per Harold Reynolds of MLB Network.

The 38-year-old Verlander received a one-year, $18.4 million qualifying offer from the Astros on Sunday despite missing the entire 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.

According to Baseball Savant only 21 pitchers were 96 or better last year.

[Ken]

According to Baseball Savant only 21 pitchers were 96 or better last year.

That sounds wrong, doesn't pass the smell test.

Are you looking at average or peak?