The dreaded LT -contract decisions!

[scottw]

I hate LT contracts: they have bitten me more times than they have helped me.
But, I have 2 exceptional decisions I HAVE to make this year.
I have W Buehler at $2. needing a new contract or release him at the end of this upcoming season. Pitchers are the worst guys to extend, with the vulnerability issues that come with them.
I also have R Acuna at $15., same scenario as Buehler; more money, but I am thinking I need to extend both.
There is no one else [unless I turn a trade or 3 between now and cutdown] I will extend.
NL-only, 4x4, auction, $280. cap, $5. per year extended, very competitive. I should, for the first time in a while, have a pretty good budget for auction. Most keepers are $10-12 and under, no one over $15. except Pillar at $24 [doubtful keeper at that $$].
Buehler and Acuna are obviously my prime-time guys.
So, what is the collective wisdom on LT contracts for them: how long?
Thanks in advance!
Scottw

[Judge Jude]

the 280 vs 260 is relevant - a 15-unit player in traditional is not quite 15 in yours, in effect.

funny, I sold my soul - farmhands Acuna and Buehler - in the same 2017 deal with the devil at midseason to guarantee a title and got it (added Harper 41 and a lame duck ESuarez for them and 2 bags of balls). Acuna and Buehler owner has won the last 2 seasons with both at 5.

anyhoo, these are about as solid as they can be for their slots. going to 7 and 20 is a given even for this exension-hater.

less thrilled with 12 and 25 - but given that you may have 4 or 5 one-unit end-gamers in either format, the units-per-other-players starts to widen a little. assuming that slots for under 5 are also matching in spite of the extra budget..... I think that's enough to lure me into 12 and 25.

[scottw]

the 280 vs 260 is relevant - a 15-unit player in traditional is not quite 15 in yours, in effect.

funny, I sold my soul - farmhands Acuna and Buehler - in the same 2017 deal with the devil at midseason to guarantee a title and got it (added Harper 41 and a lame duck ESuarez for them and 2 bags of balls). Acuna and Buehler owner has won the last 2 seasons with both at 5.

anyhoo, these are about as solid as they can be for their slots. going to 7 and 20 is a given even for this exension-hater.

less thrilled with 12 and 25 - but given that you may have 4 or 5 one-unit end-gamers in either format, the units-per-other-players starts to widen a little. assuming that slots for under 5 are also matching in spite of the extra budget..... I think that's enough to lure me into 12 and 25.

I see it as a trap play: I would want to keep both guys as long as the rules permit, but in so doing, I lose value somewhere along the line, or, worst-case, one or both of them blow up! Tough with such talents to pull back a bit!

[Judge Jude]

well, if you wanted to go beyond 7 and 20 - you're crazy, especially having been burned in the past.

nothing wrong with winning now. heck, our 2019 winner did not extend Josh Bell or Ozzie Albies.
so instead of 10-L2 in 2019 and an option for 15-L1 in 2020 (per our rules version), he made both 5-0.

he saved himself 10 extra units for the auction.

so what? well, he won the title this year, 105 to 104.5.

think the 10 units were worth anything?

at some point, it's time to stop kicking the can down the road - or at least, not kick it so far

[Gregg]

I am giving my $15 Acuna (NL only) a two year extension. I think you should too.

Buehler I would give a one year extension.

[scottw]

I get the risk for a pitcher, but isn't there something to say about the initial $2. salary? One year costs $7. but isn't a $12. cost something worth eating in a worse-case scenario? Decisions!!
I tend to agree about the 2 year extension for Acuna, as there should be plenty of value for him at $25./year.

[revo]

I'd give both 2-year extensions.

[Ken]

I'd give both 2-year extensions.

Same for me. $12 is not a big risk on Buehler

[The Feral Slasher]

well, if you wanted to go beyond 7 and 20 - you're crazy, especially having been burned in the past.

nothing wrong with winning now. heck, our 2019 winner did not extend Josh Bell or Ozzie Albies.
so instead of 10-L2 in 2019 and an option for 15-L1 in 2020 (per our rules version), he made both 5-0.

he saved himself 10 extra units for the auction.

so what? well, he won the title this year, 105 to 104.5.

think the 10 units were worth anything?

at some point, it's time to stop kicking the can down the road - or at least, not kick it so far

There is a very good chance going beyond 7 and 20 will maximize value. It also adds some risk. Certainly not crazy. I would probably do two extra years for each

[Teenwolf]

Chiming in, 2 extra years on Buehler is a no brainer for me.

I extended my $1 Clevinger last offseason to $11 thru '21. Wish I'd gone the extra year to $16 with the way he broke out, but Buehler seems like he's already established that level of dominance. So I'd go bold with the extra year, but I know a 4 year pact on an SP sounds ludicrous to most. But if he got hurt, the cost to eat it at half of $17 per year (assuming that's your league rules) is pretty minor compared to the potential benefit of an extra year of a top 5 SP under $20.

[scottw]

According to our rule, to cut a LT contract player, I will have to give up his full yearly salary off the top of my draft budget [$280.] Steep price.

[madducks]

I'd give both 2-year extensions.

Agree with Revo & Ken.

[Teenwolf]

According to our rule, to cut a LT contract player, I will have to give up his full yearly salary off the top of my draft budget [$280.] Steep price.

I guess with such a harsh keeper penalty I would limit the deal to 3 years, $12. You get a full year of using him for a championship, plus a year and a half until you can flip him for value in a deadline deal, or a possible mega haul if you deal his 2 years of control this season. Not too shabby.

[cavebird]

It depends on how long you want to compete. Buehler is a pitcher, so I would stop at two years. But three years of him at $12 is very yummy. Acuna, with no danger of going to the AL given his extension, goes for $50+ at auction without a thought. I would go 3 or 4 years with him. Then you can compete for many years. And in 4x4, his steals are insanely valuable, although you lose his value in runs, which is a shame.