On Keeping a Pricey Max Scherzer

[Judge Jude]

I have 2020 options on Scherzer 44, CSmith 1, Samardzija 1, Cueto 1

HQ projected values for best expected FA SPs in my auction, based on my league parameters:
Scherzer 32
Castillo 23
Nola 18
Bauer 15
Thor 13
RRay 8 (if in NL)
Porcello 7
Stroman 6
(only 7 others worth at least 1, pre-inflation)

HQ sees my "Three Cricketeers" as worth a combined 20 for 3 units
so keeping Scherzer makes it 47 units spent for a 52 unit return (I have Marquez 10, too, who HQ has at 7), which would be a nice result in a perfect world

inflation tends to run a little over 20 percent (farmhands are only 5 units not 10)

Castillo and Nola will go for 30+, and I can see Thor climbing into the high 20s on dreams.

reasonable to throw Max back in and take my chances, of course.

but there's something else in play - if he's suddenly off the table when keeper lists come out 4 days before the auction, I'd like to think that could create an even bigger and more entertaining frenzy for Castillo. It also would simplify my auction prep - look for cheap rising RPs late, and pound the hitting market early.

this is a standard dilemma in many leagues with up to half of all roster slots being frozen before the auction.

thoughts?

[Sour Masher]

It is a tough one. On the one hand, Max has been a beast for years, as reliable as they come. He is exactly the sort of reliable elite player you want to spend on. On the other hand, he will be turning 36 next season, and you have to wonder if he will start to fade, or if you can get him back just as cheap, because other people think he may start to fade. Also, what, if any opportunity cost is lost in keeping Max? Do you have another cheaper player you like a lot? If not, and if you think Max goes for at least his current price, I'd keep him.

[Judge Jude]

well, I won't be filling all 11 keeper slots, so no worries there.

it's weird -I got burned because Max was the first stud named and I thought he'd go higher. then Thor went for 31 (no thanks), Strasburg for 30 (I went 29 even with Max in the fold), and Kershaw for 26 (I went 25). also weird: owner sitting next to me got ALL THREE - and finished 7th.

once guys like that are gone, a couple of owners panic and you get buys like Quintana 22, Lester 18, Archer 18 etc.

Scherzer won't go for 50 or anything, but at his age getting the extra year in a buyback doesn't mean much, either. it's a "now" play.

I could build a "with Max" and "without Max" strategy, but it's time-consuming.


best hope may be that, like Kershaw and Strasburg entering last year, there is some reason to be skittish as of auction day (doesn't seem like it now, but..)

[Sour Masher]

As a tie breaker, he is a chimera. So, bonus points in my book.

[Gregg]

I have 2020 options on Scherzer 44, CSmith 1, Samardzija 1, Cueto 1

HQ projected values for best expected FA SPs in my auction, based on my league parameters:
Scherzer 32
Castillo 23
Nola 18
Bauer 15
Thor 13
RRay 8 (if in NL)
Porcello 7
Stroman 6
(only 7 others worth at least 1, pre-inflation)

HQ sees my "Three Cricketeers" as worth a combined 20 for 3 units
so keeping Scherzer makes it 47 units spent for a 52 unit return (I have Marquez 10, too, who HQ has at 7), which would be a nice result in a perfect world

inflation tends to run a little over 20 percent (farmhands are only 5 units not 10)

Castillo and Nola will go for 30+, and I can see Thor climbing into the high 20s on dreams.

reasonable to throw Max back in and take my chances, of course.

but there's something else in play - if he's suddenly off the table when keeper lists come out 4 days before the auction, I'd like to think that could create an even bigger and more entertaining frenzy for Castillo. It also would simplify my auction prep - look for cheap rising RPs late, and pound the hitting market early.

this is a standard dilemma in many leagues with up to half of all roster slots being frozen before the auction.

thoughts?

My initial thought is that a $32 Scherzer is cheap and no one will get him for that in any auction.

If you think an 18 dollar Nola will go for 30 or over that is about a 67% inflation. Applying the same % makes your $44 Scherzer about a $9-10 value. Of course the question is what can you buy with the extra $14 bucks if you throw Max back and get Nola for $30?

Last year I kept a $54 Scherzer, deGrom went for $50 at auction. Another team just traded for deGrom last week. If we both keep our pitchers the next best pitcher available at auction is Noah Syndergaard followed by Quintana. They are going to be expensive.

[Judge Jude]

$32 is a pre-inflation rate, so what you say is true. at a typical 20 percent, that means $38 or $39 is quite manageable.

plus the best players tend to outstrip even an inflated rate - though not by as much in this league as next-tier guys like Nola, who it is easier to dream of making a big leap in his prime.

deGrom is being kept again for $45.

[Ken]

My initial thought is that a $32 Scherzer is cheap and no one will get him for that in any auction.

I agree, this one seems pretty easy, $32 isn't too much for Scherzer in this type situation

[Judge Jude]

maybe I wasn't clear

those HQ numbers are projected values.

in my keeper league, I have gone as many as 8 rounds without a single player leaving the board at the projected value - inflation takes a bite out of all of them.

so SCHERZER CAN'T BE ACQUIRED FOR 32 UNITS - unless all 11 rivals suffer simultaneous food poisoning attacks or similarly catastrophic events just as a "31" bid is called out.

[madducks]

I would still keep him at $44. Top five SP's are worth a few extra dollars IMO. But then again, i love spending other people's money.

[cavebird]

I would look to flip him. Pitchers, even veterans, tend to struggle after long playoff runs, and Max had the longest you can get. If nobody bites, toss him back, bid up to a pre-determined amount, and then let him go and buy one of the next tier for less, even if inflated.

[Judge Jude]

cavebird!

per my list above, there is no next tier. the next level will all go for even worse prices.

even including postseason IP, this was Max's lightest total since 2012 - the year before he became a monster stud.

there's an outside chance that one of my rivals - and all of us have been in the league since 2002 and earlier - decides he will get Max by any means necessary. if so, I'm in a very bad spot.

[madducks]

I would look to flip him. Pitchers, even veterans, tend to struggle after long playoff runs, and Max had the longest you can get. If nobody bites, toss him back, bid up to a pre-determined amount, and then let him go and buy one of the next tier for less, even if inflated.

I don't think Scherzer was overworked at all. He only pitched 172.1 innings during the regular season plus another 30 during the post-season. In October, Scherzer had anywhere from 5-10 days off between starts since the Nationals were rolling over everyone and usually had extra days off before their next opponent was done with their series. Against Houston in the World Series, Scherzer had 10 days off before his game 1 start and 8 days off before his game 7 start. And in both of those games, he was pulled after only 5 innings.

[Gregg]

cavebird!

per my list above, there is no next tier. the next level will all go for even worse prices.

even including postseason IP, this was Max's lightest total since 2012 - the year before he became a monster stud.

there's an outside chance that one of my rivals - and all of us have been in the league since 2002 and earlier - decides he will get Max by any means necessary. if so, I'm in a very bad spot.

I am in the same situation ish and keeping my $54 Scherzer if the auction were today.

[Judge Jude]

interesting.

I'm sure we agree that if Max has even a case of the hiccups in March - off with his head.

one reason I hold onto players like this right til the end is that other owners know we know them best - and if we bail, it can be hard for a rival to go up to the top of a ladder that we ultimately refused to climb when submitting a freeze list.

even a guy like Votto, who I have at 27 and won't keep - I like to think I am just days before the auction signaling that he isn't even worth that with inflation fully in effect (and he's not, but in that scenario I find it very unlikely that a bidding war gets him over 20. and yeah, even that might be too much at his age).

[Gregg]

interesting.

I'm sure we agree that if Max has even a case of the hiccups in March - off with his head.

one reason I hold onto players like this right til the end is that other owners know we know them best - and if we bail, it can be hard for a rival to go up to the top of a ladder that we ultimately refused to climb when submitting a freeze list.

even a guy like Votto, who I have at 27 and won't keep - I like to think I am just days before the auction signaling that he isn't even worth that with inflation fully in effect (and he's not, but in that scenario I find it very unlikely that a bidding war gets him over 20. and yeah, even that might be too much at his age).

For fun our league added the Mulligan on auction day. Each team gets one Mulligan.

We can drop a player and pull one back that we cut on cut down day.

We can just drop a player.

Or if we were under the keeper limit bring one of our cuts back.

Lastly we can either give a raise or take one back.

This means I can keep Scherzer and then drop him 2 minutes before our auction starts.

The Mulligans are written on a piece of paper folded and turned in at the same time. This prevents other teams from reacting to the Mulligans with their Mulligans.