2k19: Byron Buxton

[cavebird]

I want to believe. Just give me 500 healthy PAs and an AVG that doesn't totally crush me. His glove and speed will do the rest.

His ADP is 181st in NFBC, the 47th OF off the board. If he's there I am all over it.

Since Jan 1 it goes:

43 Billy Hamilton (nope, I'd take Buxton)
44 Nimmo (yup, I'd take him over Buxton)
45 Bader (on the fence, would probably take Bader)
46 Renfroe (nope)
47 Buxton
48 Meadows (yup)
49 Laureano (yup)

I think I'd take all of those guys over Buxton. Hamilton is like Buxton without power, but he'll definitely play and he'll steal 50 bases. He's consistently boringly bad, but useful in fantasy. I'd take Bader, too, but it's closer--he does have bust potential, also because of trouble making contact. Renfroe I also think I'd take, but it depends on what the Padres do the rest of the offseason---signing Harper makes his playing time disappear, I would think.

[joncarlos]

I want to believe. Just give me 500 healthy PAs and an AVG that doesn't totally crush me. His glove and speed will do the rest.

His ADP is 181st in NFBC, the 47th OF off the board. If he's there I am all over it.

Since Jan 1 it goes:

43 Billy Hamilton (nope, I'd take Buxton)
44 Nimmo (yup, I'd take him over Buxton)
45 Bader (on the fence, would probably take Bader)
46 Renfroe (nope)
47 Buxton
48 Meadows (yup)
49 Laureano (yup)

[cavebird]

He makes perfect sense for a non-contender, given the upside. That also kills him for contenders.

[Sour Masher]

If he's hitting .200, his OBP is about .250, and that isn't good enough to play the outfield, even with elite defense. If he hits .250, he's a good player. Four-tool players are often stars, so long as the missing tool isn't the hit tool. Unfortunately, that's what he is missing. He's still a lottery ticket. 3.2% BB rate and almost 30% K rate like he had last year is just brutal. I would love to buy, but unless he can make more solid contact, he's a fourth outfielder.

Well, yeah, I guess I overstated things a bit. But I don't think he needs to be much of a hitter to play every day and collect some counting stats. He has a bit of pop and great speed, so even hitting in the low .200s with a poor OBP, even at the bottom of the line up, he'll get some stats.

All that said, and conceding he has shown talent in the past that suggest he can improve and even be a star, I too can't buy in enough to own him. There is always someone more willing to gamble on him then me. My league has guys that dream on those power and speed tool for guys, but if the hit tool isn't there, I'm just not interested.

[cavebird]

There is no way he doesn't start and play if fully healthy. His defense is so good, he is a no brainer even if he is hitting .200. The questions are healthy and offensive effective. But despite him burning so many for so long, it looks like the hype is building once again. Given his miserable track record, he should be a good sleepers but instead people seem to be treating him like Tesla stock, paying up for potential. I expect his price and ADP will grow with a good spring.

If he's hitting .200, his OBP is about .250, and that isn't good enough to play the outfield, even with elite defense. If he hits .250, he's a good player. Four-tool players are often stars, so long as the missing tool isn't the hit tool. Unfortunately, that's what he is missing. He's still a lottery ticket. 3.2% BB rate and almost 30% K rate like he had last year is just brutal. I would love to buy, but unless he can make more solid contact, he's a fourth outfielder.

wish i could jump on board but his swing is awful

[Sour Masher]

Byron Buxton said Saturday that he's gained 21 pounds of muscle this offseason.

The young outfielder was limited to just 64 games last season due to multiple injuries and he's hopeful that the added muscle will help keep him healthy. "If I want to play the way that I want to play and run into walls, I’ve got to have a little bit more cushion," Buxton said. Buxton's fantasy ceiling remains super high, but he's not guaranteed a starting job and will need to show that he can stay on the field and produce.
Source: Minneapolis Star-TribuneJan 27 - 9:11 AM

There is no way he doesn't start and play if fully healthy. His defense is so good, he is a no brainer even if he is hitting .200. The questions are healthy and offensive effective. But despite him burning so many for so long, it looks like the hype is building once again. Given his miserable track record, he should be a good sleepers but instead people seem to be treating him like Tesla stock, paying up for potential. I expect his price and ADP will grow with a good spring.

[Gregg]

He is being kept for the next two years at $20 in our AL only 5x5 260 budget keeper league.

That seems about right.

[Hornsby]

I have gone from being the biggest Buxton supporter to a critic at this point. I don't think that there's any denying his skill set, probably the best OF in the game, elite speed on the basepaths, and surprising power...BUT, I suspect that he's not going to get the chance to put it all together without some really good coaching. And I don't know if the group of unknowns that the Twins hired in the offseason are ready to do the job.

I'd take a shot, but at a reduced price, which might not be available because of the true believers.

[Big Tymer]

If and when he ever puts together a full season he could well be a monster. I recently sold him off in an AL League mainly to shed his guaranteed contract as I was entering a contention window. Seems like a guy who could use a change of scenery but hopefully the Twins commit to him and he stays healthy. Not sure why he needed to bulk up though as we have also seen that work against players and their ability to avoid muscle strains.

[revo]

Byron Buxton said Saturday that he's gained 21 pounds of muscle this offseason.

The young outfielder was limited to just 64 games last season due to multiple injuries and he's hopeful that the added muscle will help keep him healthy. "If I want to play the way that I want to play and run into walls, I’ve got to have a little bit more cushion," Buxton said. Buxton's fantasy ceiling remains super high, but he's not guaranteed a starting job and will need to show that he can stay on the field and produce.
Source: Minneapolis Star-TribuneJan 27 - 9:11 AM

[Ken]

He's not going cheap enough at this point. He's still ~pick 180 in NFBC. Ahead of Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Schwarber, Jesse Winker, Marcus Semien, Adam Eaton, Chris Taylor, etc. At that stage in a draft/auction I want to be getting a safer play.

[Sour Masher]

I agree with you both. He should come cheap and has the skills to be a steal. Although, if the buzz about him being in the best shape of his life snowballs, maybe his rock bottom price rises to a point where the risk outweighs the reward. It has already started. Reports of him adding 17lbs of muscle this off-season are already out there.

I wouldn't chase too high, but because he is so elite defensively, you know he will get to be an every day player if healthy. That is worth something and gives him every opportunity to figure things out.

[TS Garp]

He was being way over-drafted last year on the basis of a great end to the 2017 season which was at least partially BABIP-driven. He just turned 25 so he has time and the considerable upside remains. I think he's very much worth taking a chance on (would anyone be completely shocked if he ends up being one of the steals of the draft?) if he falls but you can't realistically expect anything more than .245/.310/.400 with 15 or so steals.

[kldub4life]

Call me crazy but I might take the gamble this year with a low investment price. There's not much to lose and it could be a huge return.