Closer Health Grades

[southcoast]

Baseball Forecaster gives most closers a health grade of F or D in forecasting risk. The health grade is a calculation based mostly on days previously spent on DL and age.
Which players do you think are most and least deserving of their grades for the 2018 season? Who goes down first and who stays healthy in 2018? NL only analysis.... Thanks,

Boxberger F strained oblique 2016, strained flexor 2017
Doolittle F shoulder strain (2015, 16 and 17), torn rotator 2015,
Familia F elbow surgery 13, blood clot in shoulder 17
Morrow F forearm strain, torn sheath in hand 14, shoulder inflammation 2015
Vizcaino F elbow surgery 13, shoulder inflammation and strained oblique 2016, strained index finger 2017

W. Davis D strained flexor 16
Melancon D elbow tendinitis twice in 17, nothing previously
Ziegler D - strained back 17

[Pauly]

Makes Madson, Swarzak, Minter and Cishek look like must-own dudes.

[cavebird]

The least deserving are Davis and Morrow, as while injured, they were starters previously when injured, especially Morrow. Melancon deserves an F, he had a previous injury that prevented him from pitching decently for a year even if it did not involve a DL stint. Ziegler's been relatively healthy, just not always so good. Boxberger and Doolittle deserve F-'s.

[B-Fly]

Makes Madson, Swarzak, Minter and Cishek look like must-own dudes.

The Mets would almost certainly give Ramos the opportunity before Swarzak given his closer experience and contract, although I wouldn't be shocked to see it fall to Swarzak before year end.

[joncarlos]

I think the Cubs and D-Backs are going to be very careful with Morrow and Boxberger. Keeping them in that 1 inning at a time, plenty of time to warm up role should help them. Melancon, yeah, that guy is like an F triple minus.

[Pauly]

The Mets would almost certainly give Ramos the opportunity before Swarzak given his closer experience and contract, although I wouldn't be shocked to see it fall to Swarzak before year end.

I just think Swarzak is a better pitcher. Ive suffered thru Ramos long enough

[southcoast]

I just think Swarzak is a better pitcher. Ive suffered thru Ramos long enough

What's your thoughts on Familia's job security? I watched a few of his spring outings and thought he looked good. Hitting 95 with good sinking movement on his pitches, nice breaking ball and generally hitting his spots.

[B-Fly]

What's your thoughts on Familia's job security? I watched a few of his spring outings and thought he looked good. Hitting 95 with good sinking movement on his pitches, nice breaking ball and generally hitting his spots.

I suspect his performance and his seniority in this role for this team will be sufficient to retain the job if he can remain healthy and that health is the real question.

I don't think it's good for clubhouse harmony or team performance to demote a veteran closer too readily, because the guy signed or called up as a middle reliever is ultimately more likely to handle the 7th and 8th inning duties better than a veteran closer shifted to a 7th or 8th inning role, and you're better off optimizing performance across two or three key bullpen slots rather than just trying to maximize that one "closer" spot.

[chancellor]

The least deserving are Davis and Morrow, as while injured, they were starters previously when injured, especially Morrow. Melancon deserves an F, he had a previous injury that prevented him from pitching decently for a year even if it did not involve a DL stint. Ziegler's been relatively healthy, just not always so good. Boxberger and Doolittle deserve F-'s.

Excellent point on Melancon, especially since the warning lights are already at least flashing yellow for 2018.

[Pauly]

What's your thoughts on Familia's job security? I watched a few of his spring outings and thought he looked good. Hitting 95 with good sinking movement on his pitches, nice breaking ball and generally hitting his spots.

I think he is actually pretty secure from a skills perspective, but I am not a believer in his health (hence the F grade above). I agree with B-Fly's assessment.