JD or Duvall?

[BigJonEmpire]

Maybe I play in just such a league, because although you obviously put a lot of time and effort in to the inflation/mathematical part of auctions and player values, I think it is a waste of time. I am of the "accumulate stats at the auction type" and could care less about maximizing profit. Inflation means nothing to me at auction time. if my team ends up with a "profit" after the draft ok. if it doesn't , ok.

Just because you aren't thinking about it doesn't mean you aren't instinctively doing it anyway.

[Ken]

Maybe I play in just such a league, because although you obviously put a lot of time and effort in to the inflation/mathematical part of auctions and player values, I think it is a waste of time.

To each their own! If it works for you then far be it from me to try to convince you otherwise. Some are successful without deeply analyzing the numbers. If that's you then nothing to argue about here!

I am of the "accumulate stats at the auction type" and could care less about maximizing profit. Inflation means nothing to me at auction time. if my team ends up with a "profit" after the draft ok. if it doesn't , ok.

So we are speaking on the same terms, all "profit" means is getting the most for your auction $s. So ultimately it is exactly the same as "accumulate stats". If you did not profit, then you did not accumulate enough stats relative to your competitors.

[Gregg]

I agree with Ken in that profit means getting the most for auction dollars.

I don't know what kind of league you gentlemen play in, but 30 hrs and 100 rbi is worth more than 6-9 bucks to me all day long. I think you are undervaluing Duvall.

It doesn't matter how many bucks you have at auction if there is no one to spend it on. Some years it is better to keep the expensive players, some years not so much.

[Mithrandir]

I agree with Ken in that profit means getting the most for auction dollars.

I don't know what kind of league you gentlemen play in, but 30 hrs and 100 rbi is worth more than 6-9 bucks to me all day long. I think you are undervaluing Duvall.

It doesn't matter how many bucks you have at auction if there is no one to spend it on. Some years it is better to keep the expensive players, some years not so much.

Exactly what i was thinking regarding Duvall. Is JD really worth $40 more dollars than him?

[Ken]

Exactly what i was thinking regarding Duvall. Is JD really worth $40 more dollars than him?

Not sure if now is an appropriate time to bring up that an 80% inflation league means that $40 of difference in inflated dollars is really just $22 in a redraft, and I'd say that yes he's worth $22 more. I do understand that you look at it less about the math though.

Steamer is pretty conservative on Duvall's projections at 24/72 in 502 AB. Back to back 30/~100 seasons might give you pause, but in general it's better to be more conservative IMO.

I know 30 HR guys don't grow on trees, but in 2017 there were 37 of them, so it's not exactly rare anymore.

But HR/RBI aside, Duvall's biggest downfall in fantasy is his AVG. .241 and .249 the last couple years puts him below average. You can't expect much from him in the steals department either.

In a 13 team league, he's pretty close to replacement level based on Steamer projections. YMMV obviously!

[cavebird]

Maybe I play in just such a league, because although you obviously put a lot of time and effort in to the inflation/mathematical part of auctions and player values, I think it is a waste of time. I am of the "accumulate stats at the auction type" and could care less about maximizing profit. Inflation means nothing to me at auction time. if my team ends up with a "profit" after the draft ok. if it doesn't , ok.

I think he was he was talking about a situation where your league mates were chumps, not one where you are the chump.

[cavebird]

In the past I tried the % method and found it to be useless. % profit is a logical fallacy, in means nothing (in my opinion).

Happy to go through the math of it if you disagree and we can discuss why.

This. The same amount of profit is better for the high priced player, not the lower priced ones. It is easy to find $1 guys who make $6 at auction, impossible to find $10 guys who make $60.

[Mithrandir]

I think he was he was talking about a situation where your league mates were chumps, not one where you are the chump.

Not sure if youre crackin wise. I've won my league 4 out of the last 6 years and finished 2nd the other two years.

[Ken]

Not sure if youre crackin wise. I've won my league 4 out of the last 6 years and finished 2nd the other two years.

No one questions that. I was serious when I said to each their own if it works for you.

I guess part of my confusion is how you evaluate if JD is 40 better than Duvall without taking into account inflation and relative profit considerations. I guess you do the math instinctively without thinking about it, and if so props to you.

[Mithrandir]

No one questions that. I was serious when I said to each their own if it works for you.

I guess part of my confusion is how you evaluate if JD is 40 better than Duvall without taking into account inflation and relative profit considerations. I guess you do the math instinctively without thinking about it, and if so props to you.

I think Cavebird was questioning that...but thanks for the props...and my leaguemates are chumps!

[madducks]

I think Cavebird was questioning that...but thanks for the props...and my leaguemates are chumps!

Only the ones who trade with you.

[cavebird]

I think Cavebird was questioning that...but thanks for the props...and my leaguemates are chumps!

I was just going on what you said---he stated something about his analysis possibly not applying (because you can do better with extra dollars at auction) if your leaguemates were chumps. Your response was that maybe your league was full of chumps because you did not do analysis---you did not mention any of your leaguemates.