JD or Duvall?

[Mithrandir]

13 team mixed...$300 budget..5x5

$46 JD or a $6 Duvall?

Thoughts?

Thanks.

[Ken]

Neither one is a great option unfortunately.

Honestly in a 13 team mixed with 5 OF, Duvall is not much above replacement value. It would be hard for me to pay $6 in that setup, even in a high inflation scenario.

J.D. is fine at $46 if there's a significant amount of inflation. He's not going to get you much profit but if you need a last keeper and inflation is high, he's likely to get you some value for your $ relative to what you can buy at the auction.

I'd lean J.D. with the preference being finding a trading partner that would take either or both for an upgrade.

[Mithrandir]

Neither one is a great option unfortunately.

Honestly in a 13 team mixed with 5 OF, Duvall is not much above replacement value. It would be hard for me to pay $6 in that setup, even in a high inflation scenario.

J.D. is fine at $46 if there's a significant amount of inflation. He's not going to get you much profit but if you need a last keeper and inflation is high, he's likely to get you some value for your $ relative to what you can buy at the auction.

I'd lean J.D. with the preference being finding a trading partner that would take either or both for an upgrade.

Thanks Ken. Inflation is insane in this league for the top hitters. Trout and Goldy went for $80. Arenado $69. Rizzo $61.

[chancellor]

In your league, Mith, JD going away. He's likely going to hit 4th after Betts, Bogaerts, and Benintendi. And what's behind him isn't exactly dogmeat, either - Devers, Moreland, Pedroia, Bradley, and Vazquez with a diminished but not helpless HanRam getting time at 1B, too. And DHing most of the time should reduce his risk of injury.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, JD is the way to go.

[Ken]

Thanks Ken. Inflation is insane in this league for the top hitters. Trout and Goldy went for $80. Arenado $69. Rizzo $61.

Those numbers represent about 80% inflation, which I agree is insane.

Assuming a redraft JD goes for ~$27-30 in a 13 team mixed with a $300 budget, that puts his expected price around $50-$55 in the auction.

So by keeping him at $46 you are realizing a $5-$10 discount relative to auction prices.

Meanwhile in your format Duvall is a $5 player max (I really have him around $2 or $3 in this format but I'm being generous here). So he's a max of $8-$9 after inflation. Meaning a discount of $2-$3 best case.

You take JD every time in that comparison.

[Mithrandir]

Thanks Guys. I appreciate the responses!

[harmon]

Those numbers represent about 80% inflation, which I agree is insane.

Assuming a redraft JD goes for ~$27-30 in a 13 team mixed with a $300 budget, that puts his expected price around $50-$55 in the auction.

So by keeping him at $46 you are realizing a $5-$10 discount relative to auction prices.

Meanwhile in your format Duvall is a $5 player max (I really have him around $2 or $3 in this format but I'm being generous here). So he's a max of $8-$9 after inflation. Meaning a discount of $2-$3 best case.

You take JD every time in that comparison.

However.....% wise there is a different picture. Using mid points $7.50 profit on $46.00 = 16%; $2.50 profit on $6.00 = 41%. Or 3 Duvalls costing $18 = same total profit as 1 JD at $46.

Are there enough "Duvalls" available to maximize profit?

[Ken]

However.....% wise there is a different picture. Using mid points $7.50 profit on $46.00 = 16%; $2.50 profit on $6.00 = 41%. Or 3 Duvalls costing $18 = same total profit as 1 JD at $46.

Are there enough "Duvalls" available to maximize profit?

In the past I tried the % method and found it to be useless. % profit is a logical fallacy, in means nothing (in my opinion).

Happy to go through the math of it if you disagree and we can discuss why.

[Mithrandir]

Those numbers represent about 80% inflation, which I agree is insane.

Assuming a redraft JD goes for ~$27-30 in a 13 team mixed with a $300 budget, that puts his expected price around $50-$55 in the auction.

So by keeping him at $46 you are realizing a $5-$10 discount relative to auction prices.

Meanwhile in your format Duvall is a $5 player max (I really have him around $2 or $3 in this format but I'm being generous here). So he's a max of $8-$9 after inflation. Meaning a discount of $2-$3 best case.

You take JD every time in that comparison.

Is it correct to view it like this:

JD $55 + replacement level OF at $2-3 = $57-58 spent
Duvall $9 + OF for $48-49 = $57-58 spent

Which combo would be better to own?

[Ken]

Is it correct to view it like this:

JD $55 + replacement level OF at $2-3 = $57-58 spent
Duvall $9 + OF for $48-49 = $57-58 spent

Which combo would be better to own?

For me the easiest way is to just keep the same two players in mind.

Assumptions --

1) I can keep Duvall @ $6, or I can keep JD @ $46
2) I assume, due to inflation, that Duvall (or equivalent stats) will cost $9 to acquire at auction, and JD (or equivalent stats) will cost $55 at auction.
3) I have determined that Duvall will provide $5 of "real" value to my team, and JD will provide $30 of real value

Option 1)

Keep JD, throw Duvall back into the auction. Purchase Duvall himself or an equivalent set of stats for $9.

Spent $46 (JD), $9(Duvall) = $55 total spent
Returned $30 (JD), $5(Duvall) = $35 of value

Option 2)

Keep Duvall, throw JD back into the auction. Purchase JD himself or an equivalent set of stats for $55

Spent $6 (Duvall), $55 (JD) = $61 total spend
Returned $30 (JD), $5(Duvall) = $35 of value

Option 3)

Keep neither, throw them both back. Purchase OFers (Duvall/JD or equivalent stats) at auction.

Spent $9 (Duvall), $55 (JD) = $64 total spend
Returned $30 (JD), $5(Duvall) = $35 of value


So for the same total value you can spend $55 or you can spend $61 or you can spend $64. I'd choose to spend $55.

[Art Vandelay]

For me the easiest way is to just keep the same two players in mind.

Assumptions --

1) I can keep Duvall @ $6, or I can keep JD @ $46
2) I assume, due to inflation, that Duvall (or equivalent stats) will cost $9 to acquire at auction, and JD (or equivalent stats) will cost $55 at auction.
3) I have determined that Duvall will provide $5 of "real" value to my team, and JD will provide $30 of real value

Option 1)

Keep JD, throw Duvall back into the auction. Purchase Duvall himself or an equivalent set of stats for $9.

Spent $46 (JD), $9(Duvall) = $55 total spent
Returned $30 (JD), $5(Duvall) = $35 of value

Option 2)

Keep Duvall, throw JD back into the auction. Purchase JD himself or an equivalent set of stats for $55

Spent $6 (Duvall), $55 (JD) = $61 total spend
Returned $30 (JD), $5(Duvall) = $35 of value

Option 3)

Keep neither, throw them both back. Purchase OFers (Duvall/JD or equivalent stats) at auction.

Spent $9 (Duvall), $55 (JD) = $64 total spend
Returned $30 (JD), $5(Duvall) = $35 of value


So for the same total value you can spend $55 or you can spend $61 or you can spend $64. I'd choose to spend $55.

Great clarity in this explanation

[harmon]

Great clarity in this explanation

But there is a "universe" of players out there, not just these 2. If these 2 were the only available players that carry value, then sure take option 1. The reality tho is that by buying Duvall, you still have lots of cash to buy other, maybe several other, players at value prices.

The comment was made that inflation is insane for top hitters (only). This would imply that there may be many value plays available for non top hitters.

[Ken]

But there is a "universe" of players out there, not just these 2. If these 2 were the only available players that carry value, then sure take option 1. The reality tho is that by buying Duvall, you still have lots of cash to buy other, maybe several other, players at value prices.

The comment was made that inflation is insane for top hitters (only). This would imply that there may be many value plays available for non top hitters.

To me this is a separate discussion surrounding the idea that you can "beat" inflation. Inflation is there and has to be accounted for. There are more dollars available than there is talent. So the dollars are going to be spent somewhere (unless owners leave $s on the table).

The only way to find "value" in an inflation environment is for other players to go at ABOVE inflation prices. It is a net 0 game.

In other words, for you to save $5 relative to the expected inflation adjusted price on a player, both of the following have to happen:

1) Someone else (or a combination of others) has to pay $5 MORE than the already ridiculous inflated prices. In the case of this league that means someone is paying more than 80% inflation.
2) All of the other owners in your league have to be unwilling to go to X-5 where X is the inflation adjusted price.

Especially on top end players I find this to be a daunting task. In leagues that are inflated, owners tend to know they are inflated and they spend big on the high $ guys.

When I've tried to outplay inflation I end up with a bunch of mid tier $10 value guys and even at times extra money at the end of the auction that I'm scrambling to find places to spend (years ago thankfully - learned my lessons).

The only way to rationalize that approach is to assume that none of the other owners in your league will value a player correctly, including inflation. For my leagues, that's a losing battle.

If you play in a league with a bunch of chumps, definitely save up your money prior and take advantage of them at the auction. But then again, if that is the case you don't need to be on a board like this, you should be good to go without much prep.

[Mithrandir]

To me this is a separate discussion surrounding the idea that you can "beat" inflation. Inflation is there and has to be accounted for. There are more dollars available than there is talent. So the dollars are going to be spent somewhere (unless owners leave $s on the table).

The only way to find "value" in an inflation environment is for other players to go at ABOVE inflation prices. It is a net 0 game.

In other words, for you to save $5 relative to the expected inflation adjusted price on a player, both of the following have to happen:

1) Someone else (or a combination of others) has to pay $5 MORE than the already ridiculous inflated prices. In the case of this league that means someone is paying more than 80% inflation.
2) All of the other owners in your league have to be unwilling to go to X-5 where X is the inflation adjusted price.

Especially on top end players I find this to be a daunting task. In leagues that are inflated, owners tend to know they are inflated and they spend big on the high $ guys.

When I've tried to outplay inflation I end up with a bunch of mid tier $10 value guys and even at times extra money at the end of the auction that I'm scrambling to find places to spend (years ago thankfully - learned my lessons).

The only way to rationalize that approach is to assume that none of the other owners in your league will value a player correctly, including inflation. For my leagues, that's a losing battle.

If you play in a league with a bunch of chumps, definitely save up your money prior and take advantage of them at the auction. But then again, if that is the case you don't need to be on a board like this, you should be good to go without much prep.

Maybe I play in just such a league, because although you obviously put a lot of time and effort in to the inflation/mathematical part of auctions and player values, I think it is a waste of time. I am of the "accumulate stats at the auction type" and could care less about maximizing profit. Inflation means nothing to me at auction time. if my team ends up with a "profit" after the draft ok. if it doesn't , ok.