Dynasty: Fulmer or Godley

[kldub4life]

In a standard 5x5 H2H Dynasty league who would you rather have and why?

Michael Fulmer or Zack Godley

[Sour Masher]

He is riskier, because a guy with his subpar control is always risky, but I voted Godley. His skills at missing bats and inducing weak contact coupled with the new Zona humidor make me pretty excited about Godley.

[chancellor]

Godley + Humidor = More Godley.

[cavebird]

Humidor or not, this one isn't close. Godley has better GB and K rates already, and that is pre-humidor. Fullmer's xFIPs in his two years in the majors are: 3.95 and 4.24. He gets away with it because of the giant park he plays in, but certainly for dynasty, he won't play there forever.

[Ken]

Humidor or not, this one isn't close. Godley has better GB and K rates already, and that is pre-humidor. Fullmer's xFIPs in his two years in the majors are: 3.95 and 4.24. He gets away with it because of the giant park he plays in, but certainly for dynasty, he won't play there forever.

I don't have a dog in the fight but this seems unfair. Fulmer is 3 years YOUNGER than Godley, but has 60 more IP.

Fulmer's xFIP was quoted as 3.95 and 4.24 as if that is an indicator that he is worse, while Godley's xFIP has been 4.33, 4.97, and 3.41.

Godley was better in 2017, but Fulmer was significantly better in 2016.

Also, Fulmer's 2017 was limited by an arm injury which he tried to pitch through.

I'm not see it as "not close"?

[Ken]

Also of note, Fulmer went in round 8 in LABR, and while that was likely a bit early it was still 2 rounds before Godley.

Seems... off... to suggest that Godley is better and it's not close.

[cavebird]

Also of note, Fulmer went in round 8 in LABR, and while that was likely a bit early it was still 2 rounds before Godley.

Seems... off... to suggest that Godley is better and it's not close.

That's just nuts. Then again, I don't trust Fulmer at all. Then again, in LABR, it is a redraft, and Fulmer will play in Detroit this year--and the humidor was not confirmed. For this year, they are closer, but I would still take Godley first. How much upside does a lower K, higher FB guy on a team that won't win have?

[Hornsby]

Yeah, I'm a Fulmer guy, in the end I think that he's got the better stuff, and he's the prototype of a power pitcher. But for a guy with an elite fastball, he just doesn't K enough guys...weird. I guess that he prefers to get ground outs...not a bad strategy in RL.

I think that both pitchers are close, but I still lean towards Fulmer.

[cavebird]

But if he prefers ground balls, why is his flyball rate so high and his GB rate under 50%? Maybe just pitching to the park (fly balls go to die there), but still.

[Ken]

That's just nuts. Then again, I don't trust Fulmer at all. Then again, in LABR, it is a redraft, and Fulmer will play in Detroit this year--and the humidor was not confirmed. For this year, they are closer, but I would still take Godley first. How much upside does a lower K, higher FB guy on a team that won't win have?

I suspect Fulmer plays up in dynasty even more since he is 3 years younger.

I understand that Godleys results were better last year but Fulmer has the higher floor, he is more of a sure thing.

Also, purely my opinion, but I think you are putting too much on the park factors. They certainly play a role but not to the extent you are referencing.

Fulmer may not strike out as many as you’d like but limiting walks, which he has done consistently in his career is a very valuable skill.

[chancellor]

Ken - Agree that this is close in a dynasty league. Fulmer is clearly a talented pitcher and three years younger.

That being said, in fantasy baseball terms, his style, despite his stuff, falls pretty solidly into a low BB/9 but also moderate (say, about 7.5K/9) strikeout pitcher. And he's probably condemned to a minimum of three years of a terrible team, and that assumes their management is as astute as the Cubs or Astros...which I haven't seen yet.

Godley made a notable jump last year, and it appears to be supported by a number of advanced metrics. Now add that more of his mistakes are likely to stay in play..I have to believe there's upside here.

[Hornsby]

Ken - Agree that this is close in a dynasty league. Fulmer is clearly a talented pitcher and three years younger.

That being said, in fantasy baseball terms, his style, despite his stuff, falls pretty solidly into a low BB/9 but also moderate (say, about 7.5K/9) strikeout pitcher. And he's probably condemned to a minimum of three years of a terrible team, and that assumes their management is as astute as the Cubs or Astros...which I haven't seen yet.

Godley made a notable jump last year, and it appears to be supported by a number of advanced metrics. Now add that more of his mistakes are likely to stay in play..I have to believe there's upside here.

I think that people are overreacting to the humidor at this point, giving it a lot of importance quashing hitting numbers that it may not deserve. It's not to say that there won't be a difference, there will, but what percentage? Is it going to be 10%, 20%, 30%? I don't think that anyone knows for sure at this point. Will it affect only fly balls? Or will formerly hard hit grounders that would scoot through now become routine outs? Or do those balls now go slowly enough to find holes? Do routine fly balls become Texas Leaguers? Lot's of data to still collect.

And I would bet that Fulmer is not going to be a Tiger for long...if he shows that he's healthy, he'll pull in a ransom at the trade deadline.

[Sour Masher]

I think that people are overreacting to the humidor at this point, giving it a lot of importance quashing hitting numbers that it may not deserve. It's not to say that there won't be a difference, there will, but what percentage? Is it going to be 10%, 20%, 30%? I don't think that anyone knows for sure at this point. Will it affect only fly balls? Or will formerly hard hit grounders that would scoot through now become routine outs? Or do those balls now go slowly enough to find holes? Do routine fly balls become Texas Leaguers? Lot's of data to still collect.

It is true that we won't know for sure until we have data for that location; however, all of the data extrapolated from Coors suggest the impact will be massive. People forget just how absurd that park used to be before the humidor. And the impact in Arizona, which doesn't have such a huge park, and even dryer air, which means they will have to water-log the balls even more to meet the 50% humidity recommended by MLB--most people think it will lead to at least 25% less homers and a significant dip in overall run production. Since we don't know for sure yet, we have to guess and project, and I think it is very possible Arizona is going to go from a top 5 hitters park to a top 5 pitchers park.

Parks aside, just based on K rate, I'd go with Godley, but it is close.

[kldub4life]

Appreciate the input!

I was the one getting Godley and the K upside was the reason why.

[BigJonEmpire]

There are other questions too, like the absorbsion of the new ball. The difference in weather. The quality of the humidor and the way the balls are stored within it. All things being equal it could be a drastic switch but there are lots of variables.