Tweet
Updated on 3-16
Elite Tier
Chris Sale – At 6’6” tall and a weight that I suspect is generously listed at 180, I keep waiting for his whole body to fall apart given his mechanics. But 2017 brought a fourth year of five of 205+ IP, a 12.9 K/9 rate, and still ridiculous control. Tired a bit in the 2nd half; even so, still put up remarkable numbers.
Corey Kluber – His pitching cyborg programming doesn’t kick in until May 1 (he has a four year track record of April mediocrity), but when it did in ’17, it was frightening. Backed by scary good bullpen and a top-five defense, add in his stunning 200+ IP consistency, and a K rate that’s in the mid-11s, and he may well be the #1 SP you should get.
Max Scherzer – Not even Kluber can boast of Max’s stunning consistency – four straight years of 200+ IP and 250+ Ks; three straight years of sub 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Want a sure thing when you go get your first pitcher? Get Max. It’s that simple. Only reason I don’t rate him #1 is I don’t buy the advanced metrics that tell me Washington is a top-five defense and that bullpen, in the occasional case Max actually needs a bullpen, is still dicey.
Clayton Kershaw – I hate back injuries and risk of back injuries. But even at 170 IP, Kershaw returns early round/$30+ value. He’s a risk/reward play, but, dang, he’s still Clayton Kershaw.
Luis Severino – Yup, here’s my early round push/reach. He put up highly impressive numbers last year without unusual/exceptional BABIP, ERA/xERA differential, or strand rates. Pushed K/9 to over 11 in second half. Compound growth opportunity with a potentially prodigious offense and monster bullpen and he’s the guy I believe that can make the jump to elite fantasy numbers.
1st Tier – Really, really good…usually with one notable flaw:
Stephen Strasburg – When healthy, he’s an elite starter that can hang with any of the top five. But in the last five years, he’s been above 200 IP once and below 150 IP twice. If you’re willing to buy some risk, but don’t want to spend Kershaw-level dollars to do it, here’s your guy. If you get 2014 innings with the stuff and knowledge he has today, you likely will end up with a $40 pitcher.
Madison Bumgarner – It is rumored that San Fran management spent the offseason burning dirt bikes the way Sleeping Beauty’s parents burned spinning wheels. Fully returned to health, he’s a consistent source of sub-3.00 ERA, 220+ Ks and low 1.0ish WHIPs. Favorable park combined with decent defense are a plus, bullpen is questionable. However, given this was a shoulder injury, I’d keep an eye on spring training and heed warnings if his velocity is shown as notably down.
Jacob deGrom – Well, there’s more than one notable flaw here – a below average team defense, combined with a rebuilt bullpen, and the Mets medical staff all potentially weigh against him. But his wicked stuff, combined with metrics that all supported his second half upsurge, have to make him a serious consideration for a lower-tier fantasy ace.
Carlos Carrasco – Not as dominant as Stras, but a similar discussion here. Hit 200 IP for the first time last year; had only been above 180 one time in four previous years. Advanced stats support his baseline low 3-s ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10 K/9 IP strikeout rate. Has the Cleveland defense and bullpen behind him, which is also adds value. Has legit $30 upside, but could also give you only 140 innings. He’s not someone for the risk-averse.
Carlos Martinez – Those who suffered through his 2nd half cratering last year may well challenge him being a first -tier SP. But his stuff generates a 50+% groundball rate and very low hard contact rate. Had bad luck in second half with BABIP and especially HR/9. Needs to harness control more and trust that Molina guy – who I think knows a bit about catching – to take another step. My primary concerns are with the range-limited St. Louis defense and questionable bullpen.
Thor Syndergaard – Arguably, the best pure stuff in baseball right now. Began to show highly improved control before foolishly ignoring Mets and outside medical advice, which was followed by a serious lat tear. Add this to previous elbow problems, and we have the ultimate in high-risk, high-reward outcomes. I tend to the risky side, but I’ll admittedly need a significant discount before I’d gamble on him.
Aaron Nola – Let’s stay on highly talented, health risk oriented pitchers here. Heavy groundball stuff combined with great pure movement and solid velocity. Also really, really knows how to pitch. Combination reminds me of a David Cone in his prime. Second half performance – 3.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 120 Ks, 10.5 K/9 – all while suffering from a relatively unlucky BABIP – indicate his upside.
Zack Greinke – Fixed mechanics and avoided nagging injuries and returned to vintage Greinke numbers. Not overpowering, but typically great control results in low WHIPs, solid K rates, and ERAs that outperform his xERA. Lower risk, lower upside for #1 fantasy starter.
Chris Archer – Want solid durability? Yup. Need K’s? Yup. Want a mystery on how someone with such nasty stuff can perform sub-optimally in other categories? Yup. If you’re a skills believer, this is your guy. Two major concerns – if you’re an AL-only player, he’s at high risk of being traded out of the league; groundball rate dropped last year.
Justin Verlander – Amazing what motivation can do for a pitcher. Traded away from the Detroit dumpster fire, Verlander showed there’s still a lot of stuff left in his right arm. Did have a fair piece of BABIP luck in the second half, so don’t believe he can repeat the glittery near 2.50 ERA and sub-1.0 WHIP. But a motivated Verlander is likely good for a mid-3s ERA, 1.1ish WHIP, and 200+ Ks.
Dallas Keuchel – Most extreme of the groundball pitchers, won’t get you high K numbers even when going well. Can deliver dominant ERA and WHIP, along with machine-like QS numbers and Wins when good. My primary concern is of all the pitchers in this tier, Keuchel is closest to the knife’s edge. If something goes bad – be it health or mechanics or velocity – his numbers go south fast and hard (see 2016 and second half 2017). But if right, he can literally be a game changer in the ratio categories (see first half last year).
Jose Quintana – Sent from a team with a shaky defense to a bunch of vacuum cleaners, the fantasy numbers didn’t move as much as people thought and hoped. But there’s a lot in the background that points to a major potential upsurge for this year. First, his groundball rate went up. With the Cubs defense, that’s a very good thing. Second, his K/9 went to over 10. Third, his xERA was 0.7 lower than his ERA. If he keeps his walks in the mid to lower 2 BB/9, continues on the higher GB rate and K rate, he can put up legitimate lower-tier ace numbers. Keep in mind that Q had three years with the White Sox where his ERA was near 3.30, WHIP near 1.20, and near 180 Ks. That’s a really nice floor to set up from for a guy moving to the NL and with the best defense in baseball behind him.
Yu Darvish - Most of his historical data comes from Texas, so his FA status isn't much of a risk. On the minus side, ERA and xERA are trending up and K/9 is trending down (but still an exceptional 10.1 K/9 IP). On the plus side, BB/9 continues to slowly improve and last year went below 3.0 BB/9 for the first time. I doubt his playoff nuclear-waste like performance will impact regular season performance going forward, but don't ignore possible signs of loss of confidence, either - say, a lot more attempting to nibble instead of attacking batters. I believe he's a $20+ pitcher in any -only format no matter where he ends up.
Robbie Ray – Electric, often unhittable stuff, led to a breakout season. Second half was stupidly dominant, with Max Scherzer-like numbers. Where you take him/bid for him depends on how much regression you believe will happen. I’m going for a lower regression rate than many for these reasons: first, his BABIP was lower than league average, but given his nasty stuff, I don’t think it’ll tip up much. Second, his xERA has gradually improved every year in Arizona. Third, he showed some real BB/9 improvement in the second half last year. There’s some risk factors, too, as Arizona is one of two teams in the bottom eight in standard and advanced defensive metrics, and I’m not sold on their bullpen. Moved up a tier.
Masahiro Tanaka – Definitely comes with health risk. Like Keuchel, if he’s off, balls fly far and often. But has a legitimate track record of pinpoint control, leading to WHIP numbers that can really help a fantasy team. Even at his second half elevated K rate, he’ll be a bit light on K’s, as I suspect the Yankees will try and turn him into a 5-6 IP pitcher and let the bullpen do the rest. But with that offense and bullpen behind him, wins and ERA should be good to very good, and WHIP excellent.
2nd Tier – Good to very good
Gerrit Cole – Thought about moving him up to the next tier given the move to Houston. But here’s my concerns – flyball rate in the mid 30% range led to a wicked HR/9 rate, had normal BABIP (so hits/IP probably won’t improve much), and has a good but not great career K/9 rate. In the AL, I see him as an upper-3s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP, 190 K pitcher with a strong QS profile and decent win opportunities. There’s some upside there, but in today’s environment, without notable improvement in FB rate or K rate, he’s just a very good fantasy SP, not an ace.
David Price – It’s not the age, it’s the mileage. Velocity improved as season went on, but the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen to finish out. BB/9 rate jumped significantly – even during the good run in the 2nd half – from prior years. Combine a balky elbow with a less than favorable home park, and I’m doubtful low 3s ERA, 1.1ish WHIP, and 9+k/9IP returns. I have him at $14 in a 10-team AL only, and I’ll keep him at that, but if he went in for bid, I’d probably bow out at about $17.
Kyle Hendricks – Poster boy for outpitching peripherals. Clearly, his stuff lines up well with the Cubs vacuum cleaner defense, with a 50% GB rate. If things go right, he’s a guy who can really help your ratios and provide solid QS/W potential. His floor isn’t awful – something akin to 2015/first half 2017, with a 3.90-4.00 ERA, 1.16-1.20 WHIP.
Shohei Ohtani - If you believe the Angels are telling the truth and Ohtani will only start 26 games (once/week), bump him down a tier. I think they're flat out lying, and they're gonna ride this horse harder than Gene Autry rode Champion. Even if they're not, I fully expect after Garrett Richards arm blows up in the first two weeks, and a couple rounds of JC Ramirez, Tyler Skaggs, Parker Bridwell and Matt Shoemaker, the Angels will put him on a regular 5-day rotation. If Ohtani gets 32-35 starts, I'm saying 190 IP, 220 Ks, 3.20 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP. Yes, that's highly unoriginal thinking since it pretty much mirrors Darvish's first year. Moved down a tier. The Angels might just be serious. Even if Skaggs, Bridwell, Ramirez et al all suck.
Jeff Samardzjia – Want a low-cost, durable guy who’ll help your WHIP and give you a decent number of Ks? The unspellable one is your guy. Even in San Fran, his FB rate and HR/9 rate are very high, so expecting a decent ERA just isn’t likely. He’s a bigger asset in a QS than W league – in fact, a guy with his skills and durability who averages only 10 wins a year may just drive you nuts in a wins league. The nice thing about Samardzjia is he’s about as close to a WYSIWIG guy as you can get in a pitcher.
James Paxton – The talent is incredible, and started to come to the fore last year, with a blistering second half. But even the first half was good – mid 3s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP, 10.5K/9 rate. But he hasn’t proven he can stay healthy at all during a season. If you can buy him at a value point of 150 IP, which is about $15-17 in an AL-only league, take him.
Lance McCullers – Cut and paste from James Paxton. First half showed his talent level; second half showed his health risk. Because he has a back injury history, I’d go less on him than Paxton.
Alex Wood – Figure I’ll stay on the “very talented, often injured” train. Lower K/9 rate than the other two, but brings premier control and very high upside WHIP potential to table instead. Also can’t seem to stay healthy. Ignore the shiny 16 wins last year, too. You have a better chance of winning the PowerBall than Wood getting 16 wins in 150 IP.
Rich Hill – A much older version of the previous three, but similar upside when healthy – great ratios, 10+K/9 rate. And it’s fun to watch him embarrass major league hitters with that ridiculous curve. Buy on a 130 IP basis, and enjoy the profit if he can exceed.
Johnny Cueto – Just completely train wrecked last year, including three team-destroying starts when he tried to pitch through an injury. Has an unusual every-other year trend going on, too. He’s a guy worth watching in Spring Training – if velocity is there, and sinker looks like it’s working, there’s a lot of upside. If not, I’d downgrade him a tier. He needs his GB rate up and BB/9 rate down to be successful.
Luke Weaver – Of the really young guns coming up this year, he’s the one I’m most optimistic about. He has a full pitch repertoire, solid velocity, good GB levels, and an upgraded change to get LH batters out. Will likely be innings limited to the 170-180 IP level, but can deliver a mid-3s ERA, mid 1.1 WHIP level and about 175 Ks in those innings. Plus, given that his MLB numbers last year were worsened by a high BABIP, you might be able to get him at a good value.
Jose Berrios – Another young gun probably ready to shine. The Twins have upgraded the bullpen (well, at least Addison Reed is an upgrade. We’ll debate Rodney later). Main risk with Berrios is command – his pitches move so much that he’s lost command at times and been hammered. His stuff screams upside, though, and again, price may be deflated by poor late season performance last year.
Jon Lester – One of the most impressive 2nd half meltdowns of the season last year was had by Lester. Velocity is still good, K/9 still around 9, and he has the Cubs defense behind him. These all point to a rebound to a 3.50 – 4.00 ERA, 1.20 – 1.25 WHIP, and 200 Ks. But…he’s a mental cripple with runners on base, still has issues throwing to first in the field, and his BB/9 appears to be getting worse.
Cole Hamels – Issue two of “it’s not the age, it’s the mileage”. Just about every trend is alarming – declining K/9, increasing BB/9, FB rate increasing, GB rate decreasing, ERA and xERA rising. His WHIP did go down last year, but that was on the heels of a likely unsustainably favorable BABIP. Add in an unfavorable park, mediocre defense, and questionable bullpen, and I might have Hamels a tier too high here.
Luis Castillo – If you’ve been watching the board, there are those who hold he has higher upside than Luke Weaver. There’s merit to that argument, too, with the key being the improvement shown in his change. His two fastballs and slider were and are filthy. If he maintains the high 50s% GB rate shown last year with that power stuff, he will be very special. Also, Cinci’s defense is much more solid than given credit for. They’re one of the two teams that were top ten in both traditional and advanced defensive metrics last year.
Sonny Gray – Motivation matters, version 2. Second half saw vintage Gray numbers – low 3s ERA, sub 1.2 WHIP, 8.4K/9 IP. In his case, the Yankee bullpen really matters since I think he’s exposed third and fourth times through a lineup.
Ervin Santana – A guy who consistently outpitches his peripherals, he’s a durable guy who’s repertoire plays well in his home park. Ignore the first half of last year; that was with a lottery-ticket BABIP. But his second half numbers, with a more normalized BABIP, were still solid at a mid-3s ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His K/9 isn’t all that great at around 7, but the durability should assure about 160-170 Ks. Bump him a buck or two if you’re in a QS league.
Trevor Bauer - Completely changed pitch profile to sinker-slider-curve, with both breaking pitches appearing to be plus pitches. K/9 increased to 10 Ks/9, BB rate slowly ticking down. Had favorable 2nd half strand rate, but unfavorable BABIP for year. He’s entering prime age and has the Cleveland defense and bullpen behind him. Overall bad first half numbers may well mask a really good buying opportunity.
Zach Godley – Very nice debut for the Arizona curveball king. Had some highly favorable BABIP luck early on, but even when that normalized, he moved to a respectable 3.8ish ERA and 1.25ish WHIP, while compiling a very attractive 10.5 K/9 IP rate. Great groundball rate at about 53%. Only fly in the ointment is a mid-3s BB/9 walk rate. There’s mid to upper teens value upside here, IMO. Moved up a tier.
3rd Tier – Might be good, but….
Drew Pomeranz – A favorite of some fantasy writers, I see more risk than return. Solid 9.0 K/9 IP strikeout rate and a truly dominant curve are in his favor. But control remains a major issue – and drove into the ditch badly in the 2nd half of ’17. His FB rate in that home park isn’t optimal, either. He’s a terribly inefficient pitcher who was dumb lucky on win total.
Danny Duffy – Injuries derailed what was supposed to be a breakout season following his very good 2016. Found his control again in the second half of 2017, with WHIP moving back into the highly favorable mid 1.1 level. Is supposed to be ready for Spring Training after elbow surgery in the offseason; Duffy is, of course, claiming he feels “better than ever”. There’s skills here, but I think they’ll be hidden like Khan on Ceti Alpha V through the teardown and rebuild of the Royals.
Marcus Stroman – Much better in real world baseball than fantasy baseball. K rate has held steady at 7.3 K/9 IP for two years now, WHIP has essentially held at 1.30 for two years running. His HR/9 has held steady and isn’t special at all. On the plus side, his arm is durable, he’s beneficial in QS leagues, and he’ll likely normalize at a very acceptable 3.50 – 3.70 ERA level. He’s a nice, solid, $12-15 pitcher.
Charlie Morton – Look at the peripherals, and it’s impressive – xERA better than good ERA, 10 Ks/9 IP, 1.19 WHIP, and all with pretty normal BABIP and strand rates. It’s pretty evident the changes made by the Houston coaching staff greatly improved his performance. But he’s not been north of 160 IP in next to forever, and he’s in his mid-30s, so expectation that injuries will improve is pretty dim.
Chase Anderson – As a Brewer fan, I loved his year. As a fantasy player, the little robot screaming “Danger! Danger!” just came in the room. On the plus side, his uptick in K rate to 8.5 Ks/9 appears sustainable, Milwaukee’s OF defense should improve a lot, and he held velocity gains all year. On the minus side, there’s almost no way he repeats that highly favorable BABIP and strand rate, he’s terribly inefficient in pitches/inning, had an unusually low HR/9 for a guy who gives up as many fly balls as he does.
Dylan Bundy – Improved control, K/9, and batters OPS against all masked by inhumanly bad strand rate that inflated his ERA. On the negative side, he’s in the AL East on a team that appears to be rebuilding and his FB rate is higher than I’d like to see. But there’s real upside there and you could well get him at a fairly reasonable price.
Kevin Gausman – Two years in a row, he has been awful early on. Those who thought he was ready last year watched him en fuego their pitching staffs during a disasterous first half. But, if you’re a skills believer, he has them, and you may be able to buy at post-hype prices.
Gio Gonzalez – This guy’s not a 3-ERA, 1.18 WHIP pitcher. After two years of bad BABIP luck, Gio rolled craps on hit luck last year, which helped fuel his superior numbers. His K/9 has been slowly declining for three years and no improvement in BB/9 has followed. His velocity has notably diminished, too. He’s a very smart pitcher, but his margin for error is becoming less and less. There’s going to be regression from last year, it’s just whether it will be a little or a 2016ish disaster.
Jordan Montgomery – A solid-looking lefty in the Bronx. 8.0 – 8.5K/9 IP, decent BB/9 rate, and solid against hitters from both sides of the plate. A solid #3 SP for the Yankees, with some fantasy upside.
Jon Gray – Highly talented SP who unfortunately pitches in Colorado. ERA last year matched up well with xERA, though K rate dropped from almost 10 K/9 to 9.1 K/9. I just don’t see a lot of improvement in numbers since BABIP in that vast outfield will probably remain high.
Dinelson Lamet – How early you push on him will be driven by how much you believe his control will improve. Already has a 10+ K rate/9 IP. He already makes RH batters look really bad. His fly ball tendencies don’t hurt him in San Diego. But he won’t survive walking 5 batters/9 IP this year.
JA Happ – Injuries limited him in the first half, got good results despite control issues in the second half. He’s another fairly solid $12-14 guy who’ll likely give you a 3.60 – 3.80 ERA, mid 1.2s WHIP, 150 Ks, and 12ish wins.
Tanner Roark – While I didn’t believe the 2016 numbers, I didn’t think 2017 would go that far south, either. Looking at some of his pitch sheets and metrics, it appears he’s given up command for power, which in 2016 worked well, but in 2017…not so much. Fairly durable, should be good for a upper 3s to low 4s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP and about 165 Ks.
Jake Junis – One of the advantages of KC’s rebuild is they simply have to give this guy his shot. He’s a pitcher built for his home park, good control, fly ball pitcher, unafraid to throw strikes. Had a decent debut last year and has upside for this year.
Jake Odorizzi – There’s a lot of bad three-year trends going on here – rise in ERA and xERA, rising WHIP, rising BB/9, rising fly ball rate and HR/9 rate. Injuries last year may have played into the trends worsening more quickly, but he comes with a lot more risk than in past years. But he has proven performance in the 3.7-3.8 ERA range, 1.2ish WHIP, 165 Ks, and that has value. Of course, AL only players beware; if he looks good at all early, he’s probably trade bait at the deadline.
Kenta Maeda – Some really good skills – low 2s BB/9 rate, 9.2ish Ks/9 IP, 1.15 WHIP. Did suffer from some pretty severe HR/9 impact last year. But biggest question is opportunity – how much will he start? But even 150 IP with these skills is worth mid-teens value.
Jake Faria – Young stud Tampa pitcher appears to be getting his chance this year. Control will likely be an issue and is his highest risk. Already has a Tampa-prepped change-up. Overall, I think he’s a more polished product at this point in his career than Blake Snell, but does carry some Snell-like risk.
Lance Lynn – His value could well be driven by where he signs. Has a huge gap between ERA and xERA, likely driven by the unrepeatably good BABIP. Walks too many, and last year his K rate dropped. K rate may well improve with second year off TJ surgery. If he ends up in a park where more of his mistakes end up in the seats, it could be very bad for his ERA. Update -
Moved up a tier due to favorable signing in Minnesota.
Mike Clevinger - Has been moved into #4 SP role in Cleveland. Given his competition will likely be the oft-injured Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, and one or two other very fringe pitchers, should hold this role barring major meltdown. Solid K rate, good variety of pitches, and awesome bullpen portend double-digit value.
Tier 4 – Bargain Bin Shopping
Julio Teheran – This guy should not be 2017 bad. But right now, the only good points are he’s durable, still fairly young, and has some talent. Everything else went south. Control, K rate, HR/9 all went notably bad. He had a 4.5 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP with a slightly favorable BABIP. Buy based on how much you think he’ll bounce back to ’13-14-16 years.
Taijuan Walker – I might have him a tier too low, but last year’s control dropoff scares me. On the plus side, especially for pitching in Arizona, he’s upped his K/9 to 8.4 and his GB rate by 5%. He’s not topped 170 IP yet; in fact, he’s been under 160 IP four of five years. There’s upside here, but there’s also a potential 4.25 ERA/1.35 WHIP there, too. I didn't move him up a tier, but with the higher fly ball rate he now has, may well get humidor-driven benefits.
Michael Fulmer – Well, he’s now the ace of the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Won’t get you many Ks, but can deliver solid ratios, especially WHIP. Had elbow surgery at end of year, but is supposed to be ready for Spring Training. Given how bad Detroit will likely be, he’ll have greater value in QS leagues than W leagues.
Rick Porcello – Yeah, we all knew the 22-4 year was a Houdini-like illusion. But his first half destroyed any hopes and dreams of any team that didn’t cut him quickly; that was caused by a extremely high BABIP of 38% combined with a ramp up in HR/9. Once the BABIP normalized, his second half probably best reflects who he is as a pitcher – low 4s ERA, 1.25-1.30 WHIP, high HR/9, about 8 Ks/9 IP. His durability will likely get you 160-170 Ks, and a decent WHIP, but the HR/9 puts ERA at significant risk.
CC Sabathia – OK, this is both age AND mileage. But he only needs to be a 5-6 inning pitcher now, and seems to have come to grips with being the biggest finesse lefty in baseball. His GB rate now stands at 50%, and has fully mastered plate nibbling (well, on the field anyway). Sure, there’s a risk that at his age and size that he could completely tank, but I think he’ll deliver similar numbers for another year.
Danny Salazar – Arm injuries have derailed his value for two years running, his control is still bad, and his HR/9 skyrocketed. Did bump up K rate to an ace-like 12.7 K/9. Maybe some additional relief if BABIP normalizes. Take a chance if he’s low cost, but I’d bail at anything above $5. Edit to add: And he's already hurt.
Marco Estrada – Two years of accumulated luck decided to hurl all over him like a teething baby in a disasterous 2017. ERA and xERA completely stunk, yet most of his advanced metrics remained the same. Is reasonably durable, but if his numbers come out early like last year, you won’t want that durability on your team.
Ivan Nova – The tale of two halves led to numbers that, at the end of the year, were very similar to 2016. If his knee is healthy – that’s an important check during Spring Training for him – then low 4s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP, and about 130 Ks are pretty well bankable, with some potential ratio upside. If his knee is bad, bail on him immediately.
Zach Davies – You know the 17 wins are an illusion, right? So, the good – he’s durable, he has a 50% GB rate, and his HR/9 slightly improved. The bad – he’s a finesse righty, doesn’t K enough, and lives on a razor’s edge of control. If things go well, 2016 is a good marker – ERA near 4, 1.25 WHIP, about 130 Ks. If things go bad, see first half of 2017. And the defensive improvements in the OF probably won’t help him a lot. Early injury issue doesn't help here.
Mike Leake – Veteran version of finesse righty, but in a better park for his potential sins to be caught. Reasonably durable, likely to give higher 3s ERA, upper 1.2 WHIP, 190 IP and 125 Ks.
Josh Tomlin – Staying on the finesse righty roll here, other than Kyle Hendricks, I don’t think there’s a pitcher that gets more benefit from his defense than Tomlin does. His peripherals indicate a guy who’s a 4.2-4.4 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 110 K pitcher, but if his control wavers at all or his BABIP goes somewhat bad, the numbers can get ugly in a hurry. OTOH, if gets lucky BABIP figures and his control is dead on, he can get in great streaks like the 2nd half of 2017.
Dan Straily – Another durable pitcher, with some upside. His K rate has improved to over 8/9 IP (8.4 last year), and his 3.0 BB/9 rate was his second best over five years. He’s been strafed with a 1.5 HR/9 rate for two years running, as a FB pitcher in today’s game, that’s not entirely surprising.
Erasmo Ramirez – Moved back to SP role in Seattle. Good BB rate (about 2.2/9) and acceptable K rate (7.8K/9) provide a base of a low 4s ERA and 1.2 WHIP. If someone can teach him how to get LH batters out, there’d be some real upside there. OTOH, may get moved back into bullpen, depending on other Seattle offseason pitching moves.
Reynaldo Lopez – Love this guy’s stuff. Don’t like that he’s already fighting back issues at such a young age. Role TBD, but I suspect the White Sox will take the gloves off and give him a chance this year. There’s massive flame out potential here, but he could also give you 170 IP of 4ish ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, and 190 Ks. Or, if Jones gets hurt again and Soria sucks, he could end up being a dominant closer.
Michael Wacha – Count me as a guy who thought he’d end up in the bullpen last year. There’s good and bad here – the good includes a gradually increasing GB% (now pushing 50%), potential for BABIP improvement, and an improvement in K rate to 8.5 K/9 IP. The bad includes an increased BB rate to 3.0/9 IP, a lead-footed defense, and most notably, a balky shoulder.
Jack Flaherty – Rose fast through the St. Louis pitching ranks, is said to be competing for a starting role this year. I’m actually hoping they put him in the bullpen to start the year, as it’ll decrease his price even further. He’s a mid-rotation SP with good control and a 7-8 K/9 IP rate. Also appears to have a strong GB rate, so he could provide some great ratio benefits at a very low price.
Brandon Woodruff – Came up, had leg cramps and hamstring issues, tried to pitch through them, failed dismally. But unlike a number of other Brewer pitchers, this arm is for real. Can crank out 94-96 MPH power sinkers when healthy and is working diligently on what appears to be a curve and change. If he looks good in Spring Training, he’s definitely worth end-game money.
Tyler Chatwood – There’s been a lot of chatter about how great he’ll be in Chicago after escaping Colorado. I think there’ll be improvement – clearly, a 58ish% groundball rate will play very well with the Cubs infield. But he still loses home plate for long stretches, doesn’t have a great K rate, and mistakes tend to end up being missile shots. I don’t see him being worth more than end-game money.
Blake Snell – Yeah, I don’t believe. Had a very good second half, which, when combined with his power arm, has some fantasy pundits drooling. Yes, he did improve his BB/9, which is critical for him to succeed. But his BABIP was 8 points lower in the second half, too. His K rate isn’t bad, but with his stuff, I’d expect a lot better than 8.6 K/9 IP. On talent and upside, he’s worth an end-game shot, maybe even a bit more. I’m bailing at $4-5, though.
Lucas Giolito – The first run at the majors came with some nice, shiny numbers – 3 wins in 45 IP, 2.38 ERA, and a sweet WHIP. But he got it via a very low BABIP (26%) and strand rate (82%). He’s basically a finesse righty at the velocity point he’s at now, and his control (3.3 BB/9 IP) isn’t good enough to succeed. Again, he’s very young, and there may be some growth, but he’s on a rebuilding team with a questionable bullpen.
Tier 5 – There may be some talent here, but maybe consider a good MR instead…
Patrick Corbin – He’s clearly the most affected by Arizona’s hapless team defense; it’s the only thing I can think of that explains a significantly bad BABIP three years in a row. Moved his ERA in line with his xERA, and his K rate is a most respectable 8.4 K/9 IP, but 190 IP of a 1.4+ WHIP is simply a category destroyer. There’s talent here – the GB% is very nice, the BB/9 isn’t bad, and the HR/9 moved down a bit – but, dang, I just can’t get past that terrible WHIP.
Mike Foltynewicz – This is one guy I can actually say “I told you so” about from my posts last year. Yes, there was some bad luck here; see especially 2nd half BABIP. But until he simply grows up and really commits to offseason training, quits pouting when fielders make mistakes, and loses composure when bad stuff happens, he’s gonna just simply suck. Again, there’s some talent here – but it’s buried under a crappy, immature attitude.
Matt Shoemaker – Really began to show some upside in 2016, blown up by forearm/radial nerve issue in 2018. Shoe lives and dies by whatever that hybrid split/cutter is that he throws; if velocity and movement look good on this in Spring Training, move him up a tier. If healthy, he can deliver a sub 2.0 BB/9 and about 8 K/9 IP, with a 3.75ish ERA and 1.2ish WHIP. But health has been a very dicey proposition for the Shoe for years now.
Felix Hernandez – It’s not the age, it’s the mileage squared with the King. If he’s healthy, he can probably deliver 12 wins, a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP simply on guts and guile. Which is good, as that’s about all he has left.
Parker Bridwell – The illusions thrown up in “Now You See Me” weren’t anywhere near as good as the illusion that Bridwell’s season was last year. Stupid-lucky BABIP won’t be repeated, can’t K anyone, and the FB/GB ratio just isn’t good. His only plus is the 2.2 BB/9, which is good. The only reason I’d not throw him out in auction for a buck is the risk I might be stuck with him at that price.
Joe Biagini – Some will tout him as a sleeper due to his high GB% and his bad luck HR/9 rate in the second half. I look at the BB/9, K/9, fairly normal BABIP and say he is what his numbers say he is.
Kendall Graveman – See Joe Biagini, above.
Jerad Eickhoff – Woof, this got ugly in a hurry. Velocity drop of almost 3 MPH to barely 90 MPH presaged disasterous 2017. Back and hand injuries compounded the pain for Eickhoff and his fantasy owners. He’s a Spring Training check-in – if his velocity is back up to 92-93, he’s worth an end-game play in a NL-only league. If it’s still 89-90, run away.
Andrew Cashner – If he can parlay last year’s season into any kind of a payday, his agent deserves double. Another purely illusionary season – his xERA is almost 2.00 above his actual ERA, his BB:K rate is putrid, his K/9 is awful. I mean, he K’d only 86 batters in 167 IP last year. He could pitch every game in San Fran, with a wind howling in, and he’ll still probably suck really badly. The only reason I put him here instead of the bottom tier is since he did somehow win 11 games and put up a 3.40 ERA and maybe Satan will extend his soul-selling contract for another year.
Chad Kuhl – Cavebird made a very interesting point about him in a recent thread. Velocity gain, and K rate in second half pushing a K per inning do indicate some upside. But he must master that hard sinker – or whatever that fastball is – to progress to better ratios.
Jose Urena – Parlayed highly favorable BABIP into seeming breakout season at 3.82/1.27. Don’t believe it. Walk rate is not good, and climbed in the 2nd half to 3.6 BB/9. Only K’s about 6.0/9. And he’s on a team amidst a giant fire sale.
Trevor Williams – OK, there’s some skills here. They’re mediocre skills, but skills nonetheless. And he’s reasonably durable. Peripherals pretty much indicate he is what the numbers from last year say he is – a low 4s ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, 7.0 K/9 IP guy. He might just be able to generate 130-140 Ks, too, on the basis of the Pirates needing to run him out there every fifth day.
Clayton Richard – The GB% is very good. BABIP should normalize. Even with that, he looks like a 4ish ERA, 1.4ish WHIP guy with a low K rate.
Gabriel Ynoa – Didn’t do that badly first time around in Baltimore. But has a very bad combination of low K rate (about 6 K/9 IP) and high FB rate, and, well, Baltimore is awful and plays in the AL East. There’s potentially a bit of value here – the BB/9 is solid, and his BABIP against was quite high and should normalize some.
Kyle Gibson – 2017 First half destroyed deep AL-only teams who bet he’d build on 2015 and second half of 2016. Then went and improved significantly in second half of 2017. Again, there’s flashes of talent and value here – GB% over 50% is very good, has been reasonably durable, high BABIP should normalize a bit. I can’t buy it, though. He’s has two first halves in a row that are simply ratio destroyers.
Mike Minor – OK, there’s real talent here, but I like Mike Minor the middle reliever a lot more than I think I’ll like Mike Minor the starter. In fairness, at one time, he was a highly successful SP. If his arm is healthy, and his stamina built up, he’s worth an end game play as a SP. If he goes back to his MR role, though, I think he’s worth a $3-5 bid.
Joe Musgrove – I like Joe Musgrove the MR a lot more than Joe Musgrove the SP. Mike Minor, at least, has proven at one time that he can be a very successful SP. Musgrove hasn’t. I’m not sure what his role will be, but I’d pay more for him in a MR role than a SP role.
HIGH RISK TIER
This tier contains those who are hurt, who will likely be hurt but have skills/talent, and some who were hurt and have unknown roles going forward.
Carlos Rodon – Out until approximately June after shoulder surgery to address chronic bursitis. Had a serious run of starts where he really showed what he was capable of. Still very young, and this type of shoulder surgery typically has better results than most others.
Jimmy Nelson – He may never lead off from a base again. If he ever dives back into a base, the Brewers should electroshock him. Out until June-July with partial labrum tear and rotator cuff strain. Compiled excellent mid-3s ERA, mid 1.2s WHIP, 10.2 K/9 IP even while facing a nearly 35% BABIP. Any labrum injury is serious stuff. Buy for the upside, but recognize he might not be right at all in 2017 – or ever.
Nate Karns – Was putting up highly impressive numbers with KC – WHIP under 1.2, 10 Ks/9IP, improved control (2.8 BB/9), and a 50% GB rate. Was simply crushing RH hitters. Then everything blew up and he required Thoracic Outlet Surgery. In theory, he’s going to be ready for Spring Training. Watch very carefully, but even if healthy, he likely can still be bought on the cheap.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Out until mid-May to early June with knee surgery to repair kneecap issue. Made significant power gains – K rate up to almost 10/9 – but gave up some command to do so, as his walk rate jumped to 3.3 BB/9. Other than shaking off ring rust, he should be good to go once cleared to play.
Steven Matz – Some believe – he certainly has talent; a lefty with both power and a range of pitches and pretty decent knowledge on how to use them. I don’t believe – this is the third elbow injury, and he’s under the care of Mets physicians. Supposedly will be ready for Spring Training and start of season.
Jamison Taillon – If there’s a mentally tougher guy in MLB, I don’t know who it is. Comes back from Tommy John, then gets disgnosed with testicular cancer. There’s talent and upside here, especially in the ratio categories, but it’s uncertain how much the health issues have set him back physically and in learning/growth.
Alex Reyes – Returning from Tommy John, he’s already in camp. Should be ready by early to mid-May, but plan is to put him in long relief role “until needed”. Given that Wainwright is likely toast, my suspicion “until needed” will mean the third week of May if Reyes is ready. This guy’s a premier prospect with studly stuff, but he’ll be pitch limited per game and almost certainly inning limited to around 130 IP. Edit to add: Cardinals have said he'll be in "hybrid" role, which in old-fashioned parlance, sure sounds like a swingman to me. They have confirmed he will be innings limited, potentially as low as 100 IP
Aaron Sanchez – Whatever was done to the baseballs impact AChez the most. Multiple blister problems with long DL trips resulted in an awful 2017. There’s real talent here, but the numbers had never reflected how good his stuff was. A lost year probably won’t help that problem, and there’s no indication MLB has changed ball design. Aaron might get desperate enough to try the Moises Alou solution pretty soon.
Anthony DeSclafani – Decided to rehab what was described as a “sprained” or “partially torn” UCL and did not pitch in 2017. His fantasy value hinges on how good his command/control are, as his K rate is about 7.5/9 and he’s hung around a 4 ERA for the last two years he pitched. Rehabbed elbow ligaments make my stomach do bad things, so I’ll be avoiding Antonio.
Garrett Richards – And, speaking of rehabbed UCLs, we have Garrett Richards – went one start, then arm collapsed under inflamed/irritated biceps nerve. Came back in September and was wicked good – velocity was excellent, and slider was destroying people. The ultimate high-risk, high-reward guy – he has the stuff to return over $20 in value. He could also have his arm fall off on about April 10th. I’m going to $6-7 in my 10-team AL only on him.
HJ Ryu – Logged 127 IP after two lost years. Gained strength as the year went on, too, as his fastball reached 94 MPH for the first time in seemingly forever. But, appeared to sacrifice command to get the fastball up – his walk rate increased by over 1 BB/9 in the second half, and was 3.2 BB/9. Given Ryu’s tendency to give up the HR ball, that needs to be corrected. Watch in Spring Training; if the velocity gain held, then he’s worth a $5-7 bid.
Tyson Ross – Came back in June from Thoracic Outlet Surgery, was a plague of blood upon any team that actually had him on their active roster. Then, like Sanchez, fell victim to repetitive blisters. I’m avoiding.
Tyler Skaggs – Blew out his oblique at end of April, and was out over three months. I’ve lost track of how many years straight injuries have knocked him out for extended periods of time. While it seems he’s about 35 (and his body may well be…), he’s actually only 26 and has a ton of potential. I’m not paying more than a buck to find out if he is reaching his potential and can stay out there at all.
Steven Wright – Blown knee early. Knuckleball pitcher with WHIP issues in most years. I will avoid.
Sean Manaea – This is pure speculation/suspicion, but control loss coupled with major velocity drop has me convinced he’s hiding or on the cusp of a serious arm injury. Had a strong finish in September that may well convince many to buy. I’m avoiding at any price.
Michael Pineda, Joe Ross, Brent Honeywell – Out for year with Tommy John rehab. Buy cheap and stash if able in keeper league.
EN FUEGO TIER
These pitchers are about guaranteed to put your fantasy staff in flames. No amount of soju should convince you to put one of these on your staff.
Jharel Cotton – Holy crap, was I wrong about this guy. ERA is awful. xERA is equally awful. BB/9 isn’t good. FB rate is high. OPS against indicates batters beg, bribe, or blackmail their managers to get in the lineup against Cotton. Can’t get out lefties. Can’t get out righties. Most overrated bag of crap pitcher last year. No, I'm not bitter.
James Shields – On January 9th, MLB.com reported that Shields may be the Opening Day starter for the White Sox. On January 10th, Midway Airport issued a missile alert for April 1, 2018. Put up a 5.23 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last year, and that was a significant improvement over 2016. Don’t even venture a thought that might improve again.
Matt Moore – 5.52/1.43 in San Francisco, though the advanced metrics indicated he should have been slightly less putrid. Now in Texas, all metrics say “AVOID”.
Doug Fister – At one time, a low-K, acceptable ERA, good WHIP type bottom roster filler pitcher, kinda like Josh Tomlin. Now he’s a low-K, bad ERA, bad WHIP, diminishing control pitcher. Look up Josh Tomlin’s first half in 2017, and you probably have Fister, circa 2018. And that’s very bad.
Martin Perez – Already the league leader in “Stupid Injury of the Year”, will miss significant time with a broken elbow. In reality, him being on the DL is beneficial for any fantasy owner who has him. He’s a WHIP-detroying, low-K punching bag.
Matt Harvey – Stupidity combined with the Mets medical staff have probably trashed Harvey’s career. Produced a nuclear waste-like season for his believers in ’17. More of the same if the Mets trot him out there. Which they probably will, since they gave him a $500k raise this year. I just can't pick on Mets fans anymore when they're surrounded by this blazing level of stupid.
Miguel Gonzalez – At one time, again, was decent enough bottom-roster filler. But worsening BB/9 rate and diminishing K/9 rate indicates ERA and WHIP will both worsen this year, and they were pretty darn bad in 2017.
Jordan Zimmermann – My German is rusty, but I’ve concluded that Zimmermann is German for “toast”. His opponent OPS was .888. That means the average hitter against him was Khris Davis.
Carson Fulmer – May not start with the White Sox, but if so, avoid if he’s a SP. Maybe, someday, he’ll figure out his mechanics and turn into a serviceable SP, but the odds of that happening in 2018 asymptotically approach zero. If you don't know what "asymptotically approach zero" means, read more nullnor posts.
Mike Fiers – Likely the #2 SP for the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Even Detroit’s power dampening stadium can’t hide the diminishment of skills in Fiers. The ratio price you’ll pay for about 150 Ks will be terrible.
Ian Kennedy – Worsening BB/9, K/9, FB rate and overall team doesn’t presage improvement over last year’s terrible numbers.
Daniel Norris – Likely the #3 SP for the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Yes, he’s young. And yes, it appears there’s some stuff in that arm. But has yet to produce anything except team destroying ratios, and couldn’t strike me out in the second half of 2017.
Paul Blackburn – His numbers were actually quite spiffy last year – roughly 3.25 ERA, 3-1 record. But struck out 19 in 54 innings (no, that is not a typo), and still walks about 2.7/ 9 IP. It’s not whether “if” this gets ugly, but merely “when”. However, if you nominate him for a buck in an AL-only league, you might just get someone foolish enough to bid.
Wade Miley – A free agent no one should sign. Neither should you.
Brandon McCarthy – If he plays, he likely won’t hurt you. I just don’t think he’ll play much.
Adalberto Mejia – Here’s one I might be wrong on. If velocity continues to improve, he would be an OK back end SP in an AL only league. If not, 150 IP of 1.50 WHIP will just decimate that category. Sent to AAA to start the year.
Adam Wainwright – Time, my friends, eventually catches all of us. Injuries, velocity diminishment, lower levels of break on his curve, control worsening all have combined to eliminate him from fantasy consideration.
Ariel Miranda – 52% FB rate combined with the highest HR/9 in the league AND a 3.5 BB/9 rate add up to ERA that will add up faster than the national deficit.
Ty Blach – I’m not sure if San Fran plans on using him as a starter. You should not.
Chad Bettis – I can’t think of a guy I’d rather be very, very wrong about. But even if healthy, his ratios are very, very bad.
Antonio Senzatela – Not as long as he’s in Colorado. And while not terrible away from Colorado, not good enough to roster.
Homer Bailey – On the good news side, post Tommy John velocity returned. Control improved as year went on. Bad news is, even if he improves by 20% in ratios, they’re still awful.
Scott Feldman – Maybe if he signs in San Fran, as has been rumored. Anywhere else, I don’t think so.
Brandon Finnegan – Injured both shoulders in 2017. Needs the luck of the Irish to succeed with that awful BB/9 rate, and anyone who injures both shoulders in a year just doesn’t have it.
Sean Newcomb – Might be some upside here, as he does throw hard and has a great K rate. But no sign he can’t stop walking people, and he’ll destroy your WHIP walking 4.5+/9 IP.
Lucas Sims – Velocity drop when he hit the majors resulted in some serious pummelings. There’s two reasons, and neither are good – he needs to sacrifice velocity for command, or he’s hurt.
Matt Boyd - #4 SP for the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Less upside and more downside than Fiers and Norris.
Robert Stephenson – The Reds version of Sean Newcomb, and he had a favorable BABIP last year.
Zack Wheeler – No, he will not return to 2014 form.
Zach Elfin – Terrible K/9, high HR/9 rate and a lot of runners is an unholy trinity of ugliness.
Justin Nicolino – Yes, he pitches in the friendly confines of Miami. That ends the good news. Terrible K/9 and only mediocre control. Heck, there are batting practice pitchers who strike out more people than Nicolino does.
Nick Pivetta – Had very bad luck with BABIP and strand rate. Decent K rate. Only think about in deep leagues with deep reserve benches.
Ben Lively – Another guy who had some early success and then was battered as the league caught up to him. Nothing to suggest league he will stop the league from continuing to catch up to him.
Luis Perdomo – A player I’m firmly convinced was badly hurt by being a Rule 5 pick, he just walks too many and strikes out too few to deliver any kind of value while likely trashing your WHIP.
Mark Leiter – Just not enough velocity or stuff to trust.
Elite Tier
Chris Sale – At 6’6” tall and a weight that I suspect is generously listed at 180, I keep waiting for his whole body to fall apart given his mechanics. But 2017 brought a fourth year of five of 205+ IP, a 12.9 K/9 rate, and still ridiculous control. Tired a bit in the 2nd half; even so, still put up remarkable numbers.
Corey Kluber – His pitching cyborg programming doesn’t kick in until May 1 (he has a four year track record of April mediocrity), but when it did in ’17, it was frightening. Backed by scary good bullpen and a top-five defense, add in his stunning 200+ IP consistency, and a K rate that’s in the mid-11s, and he may well be the #1 SP you should get.
Max Scherzer – Not even Kluber can boast of Max’s stunning consistency – four straight years of 200+ IP and 250+ Ks; three straight years of sub 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Want a sure thing when you go get your first pitcher? Get Max. It’s that simple. Only reason I don’t rate him #1 is I don’t buy the advanced metrics that tell me Washington is a top-five defense and that bullpen, in the occasional case Max actually needs a bullpen, is still dicey.
Clayton Kershaw – I hate back injuries and risk of back injuries. But even at 170 IP, Kershaw returns early round/$30+ value. He’s a risk/reward play, but, dang, he’s still Clayton Kershaw.
Luis Severino – Yup, here’s my early round push/reach. He put up highly impressive numbers last year without unusual/exceptional BABIP, ERA/xERA differential, or strand rates. Pushed K/9 to over 11 in second half. Compound growth opportunity with a potentially prodigious offense and monster bullpen and he’s the guy I believe that can make the jump to elite fantasy numbers.
1st Tier – Really, really good…usually with one notable flaw:
Stephen Strasburg – When healthy, he’s an elite starter that can hang with any of the top five. But in the last five years, he’s been above 200 IP once and below 150 IP twice. If you’re willing to buy some risk, but don’t want to spend Kershaw-level dollars to do it, here’s your guy. If you get 2014 innings with the stuff and knowledge he has today, you likely will end up with a $40 pitcher.
Madison Bumgarner – It is rumored that San Fran management spent the offseason burning dirt bikes the way Sleeping Beauty’s parents burned spinning wheels. Fully returned to health, he’s a consistent source of sub-3.00 ERA, 220+ Ks and low 1.0ish WHIPs. Favorable park combined with decent defense are a plus, bullpen is questionable. However, given this was a shoulder injury, I’d keep an eye on spring training and heed warnings if his velocity is shown as notably down.
Jacob deGrom – Well, there’s more than one notable flaw here – a below average team defense, combined with a rebuilt bullpen, and the Mets medical staff all potentially weigh against him. But his wicked stuff, combined with metrics that all supported his second half upsurge, have to make him a serious consideration for a lower-tier fantasy ace.
Carlos Carrasco – Not as dominant as Stras, but a similar discussion here. Hit 200 IP for the first time last year; had only been above 180 one time in four previous years. Advanced stats support his baseline low 3-s ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10 K/9 IP strikeout rate. Has the Cleveland defense and bullpen behind him, which is also adds value. Has legit $30 upside, but could also give you only 140 innings. He’s not someone for the risk-averse.
Carlos Martinez – Those who suffered through his 2nd half cratering last year may well challenge him being a first -tier SP. But his stuff generates a 50+% groundball rate and very low hard contact rate. Had bad luck in second half with BABIP and especially HR/9. Needs to harness control more and trust that Molina guy – who I think knows a bit about catching – to take another step. My primary concerns are with the range-limited St. Louis defense and questionable bullpen.
Thor Syndergaard – Arguably, the best pure stuff in baseball right now. Began to show highly improved control before foolishly ignoring Mets and outside medical advice, which was followed by a serious lat tear. Add this to previous elbow problems, and we have the ultimate in high-risk, high-reward outcomes. I tend to the risky side, but I’ll admittedly need a significant discount before I’d gamble on him.
Aaron Nola – Let’s stay on highly talented, health risk oriented pitchers here. Heavy groundball stuff combined with great pure movement and solid velocity. Also really, really knows how to pitch. Combination reminds me of a David Cone in his prime. Second half performance – 3.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 120 Ks, 10.5 K/9 – all while suffering from a relatively unlucky BABIP – indicate his upside.
Zack Greinke – Fixed mechanics and avoided nagging injuries and returned to vintage Greinke numbers. Not overpowering, but typically great control results in low WHIPs, solid K rates, and ERAs that outperform his xERA. Lower risk, lower upside for #1 fantasy starter.
Chris Archer – Want solid durability? Yup. Need K’s? Yup. Want a mystery on how someone with such nasty stuff can perform sub-optimally in other categories? Yup. If you’re a skills believer, this is your guy. Two major concerns – if you’re an AL-only player, he’s at high risk of being traded out of the league; groundball rate dropped last year.
Justin Verlander – Amazing what motivation can do for a pitcher. Traded away from the Detroit dumpster fire, Verlander showed there’s still a lot of stuff left in his right arm. Did have a fair piece of BABIP luck in the second half, so don’t believe he can repeat the glittery near 2.50 ERA and sub-1.0 WHIP. But a motivated Verlander is likely good for a mid-3s ERA, 1.1ish WHIP, and 200+ Ks.
Dallas Keuchel – Most extreme of the groundball pitchers, won’t get you high K numbers even when going well. Can deliver dominant ERA and WHIP, along with machine-like QS numbers and Wins when good. My primary concern is of all the pitchers in this tier, Keuchel is closest to the knife’s edge. If something goes bad – be it health or mechanics or velocity – his numbers go south fast and hard (see 2016 and second half 2017). But if right, he can literally be a game changer in the ratio categories (see first half last year).
Jose Quintana – Sent from a team with a shaky defense to a bunch of vacuum cleaners, the fantasy numbers didn’t move as much as people thought and hoped. But there’s a lot in the background that points to a major potential upsurge for this year. First, his groundball rate went up. With the Cubs defense, that’s a very good thing. Second, his K/9 went to over 10. Third, his xERA was 0.7 lower than his ERA. If he keeps his walks in the mid to lower 2 BB/9, continues on the higher GB rate and K rate, he can put up legitimate lower-tier ace numbers. Keep in mind that Q had three years with the White Sox where his ERA was near 3.30, WHIP near 1.20, and near 180 Ks. That’s a really nice floor to set up from for a guy moving to the NL and with the best defense in baseball behind him.
Yu Darvish - Most of his historical data comes from Texas, so his FA status isn't much of a risk. On the minus side, ERA and xERA are trending up and K/9 is trending down (but still an exceptional 10.1 K/9 IP). On the plus side, BB/9 continues to slowly improve and last year went below 3.0 BB/9 for the first time. I doubt his playoff nuclear-waste like performance will impact regular season performance going forward, but don't ignore possible signs of loss of confidence, either - say, a lot more attempting to nibble instead of attacking batters. I believe he's a $20+ pitcher in any -only format no matter where he ends up.
Robbie Ray – Electric, often unhittable stuff, led to a breakout season. Second half was stupidly dominant, with Max Scherzer-like numbers. Where you take him/bid for him depends on how much regression you believe will happen. I’m going for a lower regression rate than many for these reasons: first, his BABIP was lower than league average, but given his nasty stuff, I don’t think it’ll tip up much. Second, his xERA has gradually improved every year in Arizona. Third, he showed some real BB/9 improvement in the second half last year. There’s some risk factors, too, as Arizona is one of two teams in the bottom eight in standard and advanced defensive metrics, and I’m not sold on their bullpen. Moved up a tier.
Masahiro Tanaka – Definitely comes with health risk. Like Keuchel, if he’s off, balls fly far and often. But has a legitimate track record of pinpoint control, leading to WHIP numbers that can really help a fantasy team. Even at his second half elevated K rate, he’ll be a bit light on K’s, as I suspect the Yankees will try and turn him into a 5-6 IP pitcher and let the bullpen do the rest. But with that offense and bullpen behind him, wins and ERA should be good to very good, and WHIP excellent.
2nd Tier – Good to very good
Gerrit Cole – Thought about moving him up to the next tier given the move to Houston. But here’s my concerns – flyball rate in the mid 30% range led to a wicked HR/9 rate, had normal BABIP (so hits/IP probably won’t improve much), and has a good but not great career K/9 rate. In the AL, I see him as an upper-3s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP, 190 K pitcher with a strong QS profile and decent win opportunities. There’s some upside there, but in today’s environment, without notable improvement in FB rate or K rate, he’s just a very good fantasy SP, not an ace.
David Price – It’s not the age, it’s the mileage. Velocity improved as season went on, but the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen to finish out. BB/9 rate jumped significantly – even during the good run in the 2nd half – from prior years. Combine a balky elbow with a less than favorable home park, and I’m doubtful low 3s ERA, 1.1ish WHIP, and 9+k/9IP returns. I have him at $14 in a 10-team AL only, and I’ll keep him at that, but if he went in for bid, I’d probably bow out at about $17.
Kyle Hendricks – Poster boy for outpitching peripherals. Clearly, his stuff lines up well with the Cubs vacuum cleaner defense, with a 50% GB rate. If things go right, he’s a guy who can really help your ratios and provide solid QS/W potential. His floor isn’t awful – something akin to 2015/first half 2017, with a 3.90-4.00 ERA, 1.16-1.20 WHIP.
Shohei Ohtani - If you believe the Angels are telling the truth and Ohtani will only start 26 games (once/week), bump him down a tier. I think they're flat out lying, and they're gonna ride this horse harder than Gene Autry rode Champion. Even if they're not, I fully expect after Garrett Richards arm blows up in the first two weeks, and a couple rounds of JC Ramirez, Tyler Skaggs, Parker Bridwell and Matt Shoemaker, the Angels will put him on a regular 5-day rotation. If Ohtani gets 32-35 starts, I'm saying 190 IP, 220 Ks, 3.20 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP. Yes, that's highly unoriginal thinking since it pretty much mirrors Darvish's first year. Moved down a tier. The Angels might just be serious. Even if Skaggs, Bridwell, Ramirez et al all suck.
Jeff Samardzjia – Want a low-cost, durable guy who’ll help your WHIP and give you a decent number of Ks? The unspellable one is your guy. Even in San Fran, his FB rate and HR/9 rate are very high, so expecting a decent ERA just isn’t likely. He’s a bigger asset in a QS than W league – in fact, a guy with his skills and durability who averages only 10 wins a year may just drive you nuts in a wins league. The nice thing about Samardzjia is he’s about as close to a WYSIWIG guy as you can get in a pitcher.
James Paxton – The talent is incredible, and started to come to the fore last year, with a blistering second half. But even the first half was good – mid 3s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP, 10.5K/9 rate. But he hasn’t proven he can stay healthy at all during a season. If you can buy him at a value point of 150 IP, which is about $15-17 in an AL-only league, take him.
Lance McCullers – Cut and paste from James Paxton. First half showed his talent level; second half showed his health risk. Because he has a back injury history, I’d go less on him than Paxton.
Alex Wood – Figure I’ll stay on the “very talented, often injured” train. Lower K/9 rate than the other two, but brings premier control and very high upside WHIP potential to table instead. Also can’t seem to stay healthy. Ignore the shiny 16 wins last year, too. You have a better chance of winning the PowerBall than Wood getting 16 wins in 150 IP.
Rich Hill – A much older version of the previous three, but similar upside when healthy – great ratios, 10+K/9 rate. And it’s fun to watch him embarrass major league hitters with that ridiculous curve. Buy on a 130 IP basis, and enjoy the profit if he can exceed.
Johnny Cueto – Just completely train wrecked last year, including three team-destroying starts when he tried to pitch through an injury. Has an unusual every-other year trend going on, too. He’s a guy worth watching in Spring Training – if velocity is there, and sinker looks like it’s working, there’s a lot of upside. If not, I’d downgrade him a tier. He needs his GB rate up and BB/9 rate down to be successful.
Luke Weaver – Of the really young guns coming up this year, he’s the one I’m most optimistic about. He has a full pitch repertoire, solid velocity, good GB levels, and an upgraded change to get LH batters out. Will likely be innings limited to the 170-180 IP level, but can deliver a mid-3s ERA, mid 1.1 WHIP level and about 175 Ks in those innings. Plus, given that his MLB numbers last year were worsened by a high BABIP, you might be able to get him at a good value.
Jose Berrios – Another young gun probably ready to shine. The Twins have upgraded the bullpen (well, at least Addison Reed is an upgrade. We’ll debate Rodney later). Main risk with Berrios is command – his pitches move so much that he’s lost command at times and been hammered. His stuff screams upside, though, and again, price may be deflated by poor late season performance last year.
Jon Lester – One of the most impressive 2nd half meltdowns of the season last year was had by Lester. Velocity is still good, K/9 still around 9, and he has the Cubs defense behind him. These all point to a rebound to a 3.50 – 4.00 ERA, 1.20 – 1.25 WHIP, and 200 Ks. But…he’s a mental cripple with runners on base, still has issues throwing to first in the field, and his BB/9 appears to be getting worse.
Cole Hamels – Issue two of “it’s not the age, it’s the mileage”. Just about every trend is alarming – declining K/9, increasing BB/9, FB rate increasing, GB rate decreasing, ERA and xERA rising. His WHIP did go down last year, but that was on the heels of a likely unsustainably favorable BABIP. Add in an unfavorable park, mediocre defense, and questionable bullpen, and I might have Hamels a tier too high here.
Luis Castillo – If you’ve been watching the board, there are those who hold he has higher upside than Luke Weaver. There’s merit to that argument, too, with the key being the improvement shown in his change. His two fastballs and slider were and are filthy. If he maintains the high 50s% GB rate shown last year with that power stuff, he will be very special. Also, Cinci’s defense is much more solid than given credit for. They’re one of the two teams that were top ten in both traditional and advanced defensive metrics last year.
Sonny Gray – Motivation matters, version 2. Second half saw vintage Gray numbers – low 3s ERA, sub 1.2 WHIP, 8.4K/9 IP. In his case, the Yankee bullpen really matters since I think he’s exposed third and fourth times through a lineup.
Ervin Santana – A guy who consistently outpitches his peripherals, he’s a durable guy who’s repertoire plays well in his home park. Ignore the first half of last year; that was with a lottery-ticket BABIP. But his second half numbers, with a more normalized BABIP, were still solid at a mid-3s ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His K/9 isn’t all that great at around 7, but the durability should assure about 160-170 Ks. Bump him a buck or two if you’re in a QS league.
Trevor Bauer - Completely changed pitch profile to sinker-slider-curve, with both breaking pitches appearing to be plus pitches. K/9 increased to 10 Ks/9, BB rate slowly ticking down. Had favorable 2nd half strand rate, but unfavorable BABIP for year. He’s entering prime age and has the Cleveland defense and bullpen behind him. Overall bad first half numbers may well mask a really good buying opportunity.
Zach Godley – Very nice debut for the Arizona curveball king. Had some highly favorable BABIP luck early on, but even when that normalized, he moved to a respectable 3.8ish ERA and 1.25ish WHIP, while compiling a very attractive 10.5 K/9 IP rate. Great groundball rate at about 53%. Only fly in the ointment is a mid-3s BB/9 walk rate. There’s mid to upper teens value upside here, IMO. Moved up a tier.
3rd Tier – Might be good, but….
Drew Pomeranz – A favorite of some fantasy writers, I see more risk than return. Solid 9.0 K/9 IP strikeout rate and a truly dominant curve are in his favor. But control remains a major issue – and drove into the ditch badly in the 2nd half of ’17. His FB rate in that home park isn’t optimal, either. He’s a terribly inefficient pitcher who was dumb lucky on win total.
Danny Duffy – Injuries derailed what was supposed to be a breakout season following his very good 2016. Found his control again in the second half of 2017, with WHIP moving back into the highly favorable mid 1.1 level. Is supposed to be ready for Spring Training after elbow surgery in the offseason; Duffy is, of course, claiming he feels “better than ever”. There’s skills here, but I think they’ll be hidden like Khan on Ceti Alpha V through the teardown and rebuild of the Royals.
Marcus Stroman – Much better in real world baseball than fantasy baseball. K rate has held steady at 7.3 K/9 IP for two years now, WHIP has essentially held at 1.30 for two years running. His HR/9 has held steady and isn’t special at all. On the plus side, his arm is durable, he’s beneficial in QS leagues, and he’ll likely normalize at a very acceptable 3.50 – 3.70 ERA level. He’s a nice, solid, $12-15 pitcher.
Charlie Morton – Look at the peripherals, and it’s impressive – xERA better than good ERA, 10 Ks/9 IP, 1.19 WHIP, and all with pretty normal BABIP and strand rates. It’s pretty evident the changes made by the Houston coaching staff greatly improved his performance. But he’s not been north of 160 IP in next to forever, and he’s in his mid-30s, so expectation that injuries will improve is pretty dim.
Chase Anderson – As a Brewer fan, I loved his year. As a fantasy player, the little robot screaming “Danger! Danger!” just came in the room. On the plus side, his uptick in K rate to 8.5 Ks/9 appears sustainable, Milwaukee’s OF defense should improve a lot, and he held velocity gains all year. On the minus side, there’s almost no way he repeats that highly favorable BABIP and strand rate, he’s terribly inefficient in pitches/inning, had an unusually low HR/9 for a guy who gives up as many fly balls as he does.
Dylan Bundy – Improved control, K/9, and batters OPS against all masked by inhumanly bad strand rate that inflated his ERA. On the negative side, he’s in the AL East on a team that appears to be rebuilding and his FB rate is higher than I’d like to see. But there’s real upside there and you could well get him at a fairly reasonable price.
Kevin Gausman – Two years in a row, he has been awful early on. Those who thought he was ready last year watched him en fuego their pitching staffs during a disasterous first half. But, if you’re a skills believer, he has them, and you may be able to buy at post-hype prices.
Gio Gonzalez – This guy’s not a 3-ERA, 1.18 WHIP pitcher. After two years of bad BABIP luck, Gio rolled craps on hit luck last year, which helped fuel his superior numbers. His K/9 has been slowly declining for three years and no improvement in BB/9 has followed. His velocity has notably diminished, too. He’s a very smart pitcher, but his margin for error is becoming less and less. There’s going to be regression from last year, it’s just whether it will be a little or a 2016ish disaster.
Jordan Montgomery – A solid-looking lefty in the Bronx. 8.0 – 8.5K/9 IP, decent BB/9 rate, and solid against hitters from both sides of the plate. A solid #3 SP for the Yankees, with some fantasy upside.
Jon Gray – Highly talented SP who unfortunately pitches in Colorado. ERA last year matched up well with xERA, though K rate dropped from almost 10 K/9 to 9.1 K/9. I just don’t see a lot of improvement in numbers since BABIP in that vast outfield will probably remain high.
Dinelson Lamet – How early you push on him will be driven by how much you believe his control will improve. Already has a 10+ K rate/9 IP. He already makes RH batters look really bad. His fly ball tendencies don’t hurt him in San Diego. But he won’t survive walking 5 batters/9 IP this year.
JA Happ – Injuries limited him in the first half, got good results despite control issues in the second half. He’s another fairly solid $12-14 guy who’ll likely give you a 3.60 – 3.80 ERA, mid 1.2s WHIP, 150 Ks, and 12ish wins.
Tanner Roark – While I didn’t believe the 2016 numbers, I didn’t think 2017 would go that far south, either. Looking at some of his pitch sheets and metrics, it appears he’s given up command for power, which in 2016 worked well, but in 2017…not so much. Fairly durable, should be good for a upper 3s to low 4s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP and about 165 Ks.
Jake Junis – One of the advantages of KC’s rebuild is they simply have to give this guy his shot. He’s a pitcher built for his home park, good control, fly ball pitcher, unafraid to throw strikes. Had a decent debut last year and has upside for this year.
Jake Odorizzi – There’s a lot of bad three-year trends going on here – rise in ERA and xERA, rising WHIP, rising BB/9, rising fly ball rate and HR/9 rate. Injuries last year may have played into the trends worsening more quickly, but he comes with a lot more risk than in past years. But he has proven performance in the 3.7-3.8 ERA range, 1.2ish WHIP, 165 Ks, and that has value. Of course, AL only players beware; if he looks good at all early, he’s probably trade bait at the deadline.
Kenta Maeda – Some really good skills – low 2s BB/9 rate, 9.2ish Ks/9 IP, 1.15 WHIP. Did suffer from some pretty severe HR/9 impact last year. But biggest question is opportunity – how much will he start? But even 150 IP with these skills is worth mid-teens value.
Jake Faria – Young stud Tampa pitcher appears to be getting his chance this year. Control will likely be an issue and is his highest risk. Already has a Tampa-prepped change-up. Overall, I think he’s a more polished product at this point in his career than Blake Snell, but does carry some Snell-like risk.
Lance Lynn – His value could well be driven by where he signs. Has a huge gap between ERA and xERA, likely driven by the unrepeatably good BABIP. Walks too many, and last year his K rate dropped. K rate may well improve with second year off TJ surgery. If he ends up in a park where more of his mistakes end up in the seats, it could be very bad for his ERA. Update -
Moved up a tier due to favorable signing in Minnesota.
Mike Clevinger - Has been moved into #4 SP role in Cleveland. Given his competition will likely be the oft-injured Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, and one or two other very fringe pitchers, should hold this role barring major meltdown. Solid K rate, good variety of pitches, and awesome bullpen portend double-digit value.
Tier 4 – Bargain Bin Shopping
Julio Teheran – This guy should not be 2017 bad. But right now, the only good points are he’s durable, still fairly young, and has some talent. Everything else went south. Control, K rate, HR/9 all went notably bad. He had a 4.5 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP with a slightly favorable BABIP. Buy based on how much you think he’ll bounce back to ’13-14-16 years.
Taijuan Walker – I might have him a tier too low, but last year’s control dropoff scares me. On the plus side, especially for pitching in Arizona, he’s upped his K/9 to 8.4 and his GB rate by 5%. He’s not topped 170 IP yet; in fact, he’s been under 160 IP four of five years. There’s upside here, but there’s also a potential 4.25 ERA/1.35 WHIP there, too. I didn't move him up a tier, but with the higher fly ball rate he now has, may well get humidor-driven benefits.
Michael Fulmer – Well, he’s now the ace of the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Won’t get you many Ks, but can deliver solid ratios, especially WHIP. Had elbow surgery at end of year, but is supposed to be ready for Spring Training. Given how bad Detroit will likely be, he’ll have greater value in QS leagues than W leagues.
Rick Porcello – Yeah, we all knew the 22-4 year was a Houdini-like illusion. But his first half destroyed any hopes and dreams of any team that didn’t cut him quickly; that was caused by a extremely high BABIP of 38% combined with a ramp up in HR/9. Once the BABIP normalized, his second half probably best reflects who he is as a pitcher – low 4s ERA, 1.25-1.30 WHIP, high HR/9, about 8 Ks/9 IP. His durability will likely get you 160-170 Ks, and a decent WHIP, but the HR/9 puts ERA at significant risk.
CC Sabathia – OK, this is both age AND mileage. But he only needs to be a 5-6 inning pitcher now, and seems to have come to grips with being the biggest finesse lefty in baseball. His GB rate now stands at 50%, and has fully mastered plate nibbling (well, on the field anyway). Sure, there’s a risk that at his age and size that he could completely tank, but I think he’ll deliver similar numbers for another year.
Danny Salazar – Arm injuries have derailed his value for two years running, his control is still bad, and his HR/9 skyrocketed. Did bump up K rate to an ace-like 12.7 K/9. Maybe some additional relief if BABIP normalizes. Take a chance if he’s low cost, but I’d bail at anything above $5. Edit to add: And he's already hurt.
Marco Estrada – Two years of accumulated luck decided to hurl all over him like a teething baby in a disasterous 2017. ERA and xERA completely stunk, yet most of his advanced metrics remained the same. Is reasonably durable, but if his numbers come out early like last year, you won’t want that durability on your team.
Ivan Nova – The tale of two halves led to numbers that, at the end of the year, were very similar to 2016. If his knee is healthy – that’s an important check during Spring Training for him – then low 4s ERA, mid 1.2 WHIP, and about 130 Ks are pretty well bankable, with some potential ratio upside. If his knee is bad, bail on him immediately.
Zach Davies – You know the 17 wins are an illusion, right? So, the good – he’s durable, he has a 50% GB rate, and his HR/9 slightly improved. The bad – he’s a finesse righty, doesn’t K enough, and lives on a razor’s edge of control. If things go well, 2016 is a good marker – ERA near 4, 1.25 WHIP, about 130 Ks. If things go bad, see first half of 2017. And the defensive improvements in the OF probably won’t help him a lot. Early injury issue doesn't help here.
Mike Leake – Veteran version of finesse righty, but in a better park for his potential sins to be caught. Reasonably durable, likely to give higher 3s ERA, upper 1.2 WHIP, 190 IP and 125 Ks.
Josh Tomlin – Staying on the finesse righty roll here, other than Kyle Hendricks, I don’t think there’s a pitcher that gets more benefit from his defense than Tomlin does. His peripherals indicate a guy who’s a 4.2-4.4 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 110 K pitcher, but if his control wavers at all or his BABIP goes somewhat bad, the numbers can get ugly in a hurry. OTOH, if gets lucky BABIP figures and his control is dead on, he can get in great streaks like the 2nd half of 2017.
Dan Straily – Another durable pitcher, with some upside. His K rate has improved to over 8/9 IP (8.4 last year), and his 3.0 BB/9 rate was his second best over five years. He’s been strafed with a 1.5 HR/9 rate for two years running, as a FB pitcher in today’s game, that’s not entirely surprising.
Erasmo Ramirez – Moved back to SP role in Seattle. Good BB rate (about 2.2/9) and acceptable K rate (7.8K/9) provide a base of a low 4s ERA and 1.2 WHIP. If someone can teach him how to get LH batters out, there’d be some real upside there. OTOH, may get moved back into bullpen, depending on other Seattle offseason pitching moves.
Reynaldo Lopez – Love this guy’s stuff. Don’t like that he’s already fighting back issues at such a young age. Role TBD, but I suspect the White Sox will take the gloves off and give him a chance this year. There’s massive flame out potential here, but he could also give you 170 IP of 4ish ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, and 190 Ks. Or, if Jones gets hurt again and Soria sucks, he could end up being a dominant closer.
Michael Wacha – Count me as a guy who thought he’d end up in the bullpen last year. There’s good and bad here – the good includes a gradually increasing GB% (now pushing 50%), potential for BABIP improvement, and an improvement in K rate to 8.5 K/9 IP. The bad includes an increased BB rate to 3.0/9 IP, a lead-footed defense, and most notably, a balky shoulder.
Jack Flaherty – Rose fast through the St. Louis pitching ranks, is said to be competing for a starting role this year. I’m actually hoping they put him in the bullpen to start the year, as it’ll decrease his price even further. He’s a mid-rotation SP with good control and a 7-8 K/9 IP rate. Also appears to have a strong GB rate, so he could provide some great ratio benefits at a very low price.
Brandon Woodruff – Came up, had leg cramps and hamstring issues, tried to pitch through them, failed dismally. But unlike a number of other Brewer pitchers, this arm is for real. Can crank out 94-96 MPH power sinkers when healthy and is working diligently on what appears to be a curve and change. If he looks good in Spring Training, he’s definitely worth end-game money.
Tyler Chatwood – There’s been a lot of chatter about how great he’ll be in Chicago after escaping Colorado. I think there’ll be improvement – clearly, a 58ish% groundball rate will play very well with the Cubs infield. But he still loses home plate for long stretches, doesn’t have a great K rate, and mistakes tend to end up being missile shots. I don’t see him being worth more than end-game money.
Blake Snell – Yeah, I don’t believe. Had a very good second half, which, when combined with his power arm, has some fantasy pundits drooling. Yes, he did improve his BB/9, which is critical for him to succeed. But his BABIP was 8 points lower in the second half, too. His K rate isn’t bad, but with his stuff, I’d expect a lot better than 8.6 K/9 IP. On talent and upside, he’s worth an end-game shot, maybe even a bit more. I’m bailing at $4-5, though.
Lucas Giolito – The first run at the majors came with some nice, shiny numbers – 3 wins in 45 IP, 2.38 ERA, and a sweet WHIP. But he got it via a very low BABIP (26%) and strand rate (82%). He’s basically a finesse righty at the velocity point he’s at now, and his control (3.3 BB/9 IP) isn’t good enough to succeed. Again, he’s very young, and there may be some growth, but he’s on a rebuilding team with a questionable bullpen.
Tier 5 – There may be some talent here, but maybe consider a good MR instead…
Patrick Corbin – He’s clearly the most affected by Arizona’s hapless team defense; it’s the only thing I can think of that explains a significantly bad BABIP three years in a row. Moved his ERA in line with his xERA, and his K rate is a most respectable 8.4 K/9 IP, but 190 IP of a 1.4+ WHIP is simply a category destroyer. There’s talent here – the GB% is very nice, the BB/9 isn’t bad, and the HR/9 moved down a bit – but, dang, I just can’t get past that terrible WHIP.
Mike Foltynewicz – This is one guy I can actually say “I told you so” about from my posts last year. Yes, there was some bad luck here; see especially 2nd half BABIP. But until he simply grows up and really commits to offseason training, quits pouting when fielders make mistakes, and loses composure when bad stuff happens, he’s gonna just simply suck. Again, there’s some talent here – but it’s buried under a crappy, immature attitude.
Matt Shoemaker – Really began to show some upside in 2016, blown up by forearm/radial nerve issue in 2018. Shoe lives and dies by whatever that hybrid split/cutter is that he throws; if velocity and movement look good on this in Spring Training, move him up a tier. If healthy, he can deliver a sub 2.0 BB/9 and about 8 K/9 IP, with a 3.75ish ERA and 1.2ish WHIP. But health has been a very dicey proposition for the Shoe for years now.
Felix Hernandez – It’s not the age, it’s the mileage squared with the King. If he’s healthy, he can probably deliver 12 wins, a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP simply on guts and guile. Which is good, as that’s about all he has left.
Parker Bridwell – The illusions thrown up in “Now You See Me” weren’t anywhere near as good as the illusion that Bridwell’s season was last year. Stupid-lucky BABIP won’t be repeated, can’t K anyone, and the FB/GB ratio just isn’t good. His only plus is the 2.2 BB/9, which is good. The only reason I’d not throw him out in auction for a buck is the risk I might be stuck with him at that price.
Joe Biagini – Some will tout him as a sleeper due to his high GB% and his bad luck HR/9 rate in the second half. I look at the BB/9, K/9, fairly normal BABIP and say he is what his numbers say he is.
Kendall Graveman – See Joe Biagini, above.
Jerad Eickhoff – Woof, this got ugly in a hurry. Velocity drop of almost 3 MPH to barely 90 MPH presaged disasterous 2017. Back and hand injuries compounded the pain for Eickhoff and his fantasy owners. He’s a Spring Training check-in – if his velocity is back up to 92-93, he’s worth an end-game play in a NL-only league. If it’s still 89-90, run away.
Andrew Cashner – If he can parlay last year’s season into any kind of a payday, his agent deserves double. Another purely illusionary season – his xERA is almost 2.00 above his actual ERA, his BB:K rate is putrid, his K/9 is awful. I mean, he K’d only 86 batters in 167 IP last year. He could pitch every game in San Fran, with a wind howling in, and he’ll still probably suck really badly. The only reason I put him here instead of the bottom tier is since he did somehow win 11 games and put up a 3.40 ERA and maybe Satan will extend his soul-selling contract for another year.
Chad Kuhl – Cavebird made a very interesting point about him in a recent thread. Velocity gain, and K rate in second half pushing a K per inning do indicate some upside. But he must master that hard sinker – or whatever that fastball is – to progress to better ratios.
Jose Urena – Parlayed highly favorable BABIP into seeming breakout season at 3.82/1.27. Don’t believe it. Walk rate is not good, and climbed in the 2nd half to 3.6 BB/9. Only K’s about 6.0/9. And he’s on a team amidst a giant fire sale.
Trevor Williams – OK, there’s some skills here. They’re mediocre skills, but skills nonetheless. And he’s reasonably durable. Peripherals pretty much indicate he is what the numbers from last year say he is – a low 4s ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, 7.0 K/9 IP guy. He might just be able to generate 130-140 Ks, too, on the basis of the Pirates needing to run him out there every fifth day.
Clayton Richard – The GB% is very good. BABIP should normalize. Even with that, he looks like a 4ish ERA, 1.4ish WHIP guy with a low K rate.
Gabriel Ynoa – Didn’t do that badly first time around in Baltimore. But has a very bad combination of low K rate (about 6 K/9 IP) and high FB rate, and, well, Baltimore is awful and plays in the AL East. There’s potentially a bit of value here – the BB/9 is solid, and his BABIP against was quite high and should normalize some.
Kyle Gibson – 2017 First half destroyed deep AL-only teams who bet he’d build on 2015 and second half of 2016. Then went and improved significantly in second half of 2017. Again, there’s flashes of talent and value here – GB% over 50% is very good, has been reasonably durable, high BABIP should normalize a bit. I can’t buy it, though. He’s has two first halves in a row that are simply ratio destroyers.
Mike Minor – OK, there’s real talent here, but I like Mike Minor the middle reliever a lot more than I think I’ll like Mike Minor the starter. In fairness, at one time, he was a highly successful SP. If his arm is healthy, and his stamina built up, he’s worth an end game play as a SP. If he goes back to his MR role, though, I think he’s worth a $3-5 bid.
Joe Musgrove – I like Joe Musgrove the MR a lot more than Joe Musgrove the SP. Mike Minor, at least, has proven at one time that he can be a very successful SP. Musgrove hasn’t. I’m not sure what his role will be, but I’d pay more for him in a MR role than a SP role.
HIGH RISK TIER
This tier contains those who are hurt, who will likely be hurt but have skills/talent, and some who were hurt and have unknown roles going forward.
Carlos Rodon – Out until approximately June after shoulder surgery to address chronic bursitis. Had a serious run of starts where he really showed what he was capable of. Still very young, and this type of shoulder surgery typically has better results than most others.
Jimmy Nelson – He may never lead off from a base again. If he ever dives back into a base, the Brewers should electroshock him. Out until June-July with partial labrum tear and rotator cuff strain. Compiled excellent mid-3s ERA, mid 1.2s WHIP, 10.2 K/9 IP even while facing a nearly 35% BABIP. Any labrum injury is serious stuff. Buy for the upside, but recognize he might not be right at all in 2017 – or ever.
Nate Karns – Was putting up highly impressive numbers with KC – WHIP under 1.2, 10 Ks/9IP, improved control (2.8 BB/9), and a 50% GB rate. Was simply crushing RH hitters. Then everything blew up and he required Thoracic Outlet Surgery. In theory, he’s going to be ready for Spring Training. Watch very carefully, but even if healthy, he likely can still be bought on the cheap.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Out until mid-May to early June with knee surgery to repair kneecap issue. Made significant power gains – K rate up to almost 10/9 – but gave up some command to do so, as his walk rate jumped to 3.3 BB/9. Other than shaking off ring rust, he should be good to go once cleared to play.
Steven Matz – Some believe – he certainly has talent; a lefty with both power and a range of pitches and pretty decent knowledge on how to use them. I don’t believe – this is the third elbow injury, and he’s under the care of Mets physicians. Supposedly will be ready for Spring Training and start of season.
Jamison Taillon – If there’s a mentally tougher guy in MLB, I don’t know who it is. Comes back from Tommy John, then gets disgnosed with testicular cancer. There’s talent and upside here, especially in the ratio categories, but it’s uncertain how much the health issues have set him back physically and in learning/growth.
Alex Reyes – Returning from Tommy John, he’s already in camp. Should be ready by early to mid-May, but plan is to put him in long relief role “until needed”. Given that Wainwright is likely toast, my suspicion “until needed” will mean the third week of May if Reyes is ready. This guy’s a premier prospect with studly stuff, but he’ll be pitch limited per game and almost certainly inning limited to around 130 IP. Edit to add: Cardinals have said he'll be in "hybrid" role, which in old-fashioned parlance, sure sounds like a swingman to me. They have confirmed he will be innings limited, potentially as low as 100 IP
Aaron Sanchez – Whatever was done to the baseballs impact AChez the most. Multiple blister problems with long DL trips resulted in an awful 2017. There’s real talent here, but the numbers had never reflected how good his stuff was. A lost year probably won’t help that problem, and there’s no indication MLB has changed ball design. Aaron might get desperate enough to try the Moises Alou solution pretty soon.
Anthony DeSclafani – Decided to rehab what was described as a “sprained” or “partially torn” UCL and did not pitch in 2017. His fantasy value hinges on how good his command/control are, as his K rate is about 7.5/9 and he’s hung around a 4 ERA for the last two years he pitched. Rehabbed elbow ligaments make my stomach do bad things, so I’ll be avoiding Antonio.
Garrett Richards – And, speaking of rehabbed UCLs, we have Garrett Richards – went one start, then arm collapsed under inflamed/irritated biceps nerve. Came back in September and was wicked good – velocity was excellent, and slider was destroying people. The ultimate high-risk, high-reward guy – he has the stuff to return over $20 in value. He could also have his arm fall off on about April 10th. I’m going to $6-7 in my 10-team AL only on him.
HJ Ryu – Logged 127 IP after two lost years. Gained strength as the year went on, too, as his fastball reached 94 MPH for the first time in seemingly forever. But, appeared to sacrifice command to get the fastball up – his walk rate increased by over 1 BB/9 in the second half, and was 3.2 BB/9. Given Ryu’s tendency to give up the HR ball, that needs to be corrected. Watch in Spring Training; if the velocity gain held, then he’s worth a $5-7 bid.
Tyson Ross – Came back in June from Thoracic Outlet Surgery, was a plague of blood upon any team that actually had him on their active roster. Then, like Sanchez, fell victim to repetitive blisters. I’m avoiding.
Tyler Skaggs – Blew out his oblique at end of April, and was out over three months. I’ve lost track of how many years straight injuries have knocked him out for extended periods of time. While it seems he’s about 35 (and his body may well be…), he’s actually only 26 and has a ton of potential. I’m not paying more than a buck to find out if he is reaching his potential and can stay out there at all.
Steven Wright – Blown knee early. Knuckleball pitcher with WHIP issues in most years. I will avoid.
Sean Manaea – This is pure speculation/suspicion, but control loss coupled with major velocity drop has me convinced he’s hiding or on the cusp of a serious arm injury. Had a strong finish in September that may well convince many to buy. I’m avoiding at any price.
Michael Pineda, Joe Ross, Brent Honeywell – Out for year with Tommy John rehab. Buy cheap and stash if able in keeper league.
EN FUEGO TIER
These pitchers are about guaranteed to put your fantasy staff in flames. No amount of soju should convince you to put one of these on your staff.
Jharel Cotton – Holy crap, was I wrong about this guy. ERA is awful. xERA is equally awful. BB/9 isn’t good. FB rate is high. OPS against indicates batters beg, bribe, or blackmail their managers to get in the lineup against Cotton. Can’t get out lefties. Can’t get out righties. Most overrated bag of crap pitcher last year. No, I'm not bitter.
James Shields – On January 9th, MLB.com reported that Shields may be the Opening Day starter for the White Sox. On January 10th, Midway Airport issued a missile alert for April 1, 2018. Put up a 5.23 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last year, and that was a significant improvement over 2016. Don’t even venture a thought that might improve again.
Matt Moore – 5.52/1.43 in San Francisco, though the advanced metrics indicated he should have been slightly less putrid. Now in Texas, all metrics say “AVOID”.
Doug Fister – At one time, a low-K, acceptable ERA, good WHIP type bottom roster filler pitcher, kinda like Josh Tomlin. Now he’s a low-K, bad ERA, bad WHIP, diminishing control pitcher. Look up Josh Tomlin’s first half in 2017, and you probably have Fister, circa 2018. And that’s very bad.
Martin Perez – Already the league leader in “Stupid Injury of the Year”, will miss significant time with a broken elbow. In reality, him being on the DL is beneficial for any fantasy owner who has him. He’s a WHIP-detroying, low-K punching bag.
Matt Harvey – Stupidity combined with the Mets medical staff have probably trashed Harvey’s career. Produced a nuclear waste-like season for his believers in ’17. More of the same if the Mets trot him out there. Which they probably will, since they gave him a $500k raise this year. I just can't pick on Mets fans anymore when they're surrounded by this blazing level of stupid.
Miguel Gonzalez – At one time, again, was decent enough bottom-roster filler. But worsening BB/9 rate and diminishing K/9 rate indicates ERA and WHIP will both worsen this year, and they were pretty darn bad in 2017.
Jordan Zimmermann – My German is rusty, but I’ve concluded that Zimmermann is German for “toast”. His opponent OPS was .888. That means the average hitter against him was Khris Davis.
Carson Fulmer – May not start with the White Sox, but if so, avoid if he’s a SP. Maybe, someday, he’ll figure out his mechanics and turn into a serviceable SP, but the odds of that happening in 2018 asymptotically approach zero. If you don't know what "asymptotically approach zero" means, read more nullnor posts.
Mike Fiers – Likely the #2 SP for the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Even Detroit’s power dampening stadium can’t hide the diminishment of skills in Fiers. The ratio price you’ll pay for about 150 Ks will be terrible.
Ian Kennedy – Worsening BB/9, K/9, FB rate and overall team doesn’t presage improvement over last year’s terrible numbers.
Daniel Norris – Likely the #3 SP for the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Yes, he’s young. And yes, it appears there’s some stuff in that arm. But has yet to produce anything except team destroying ratios, and couldn’t strike me out in the second half of 2017.
Paul Blackburn – His numbers were actually quite spiffy last year – roughly 3.25 ERA, 3-1 record. But struck out 19 in 54 innings (no, that is not a typo), and still walks about 2.7/ 9 IP. It’s not whether “if” this gets ugly, but merely “when”. However, if you nominate him for a buck in an AL-only league, you might just get someone foolish enough to bid.
Wade Miley – A free agent no one should sign. Neither should you.
Brandon McCarthy – If he plays, he likely won’t hurt you. I just don’t think he’ll play much.
Adalberto Mejia – Here’s one I might be wrong on. If velocity continues to improve, he would be an OK back end SP in an AL only league. If not, 150 IP of 1.50 WHIP will just decimate that category. Sent to AAA to start the year.
Adam Wainwright – Time, my friends, eventually catches all of us. Injuries, velocity diminishment, lower levels of break on his curve, control worsening all have combined to eliminate him from fantasy consideration.
Ariel Miranda – 52% FB rate combined with the highest HR/9 in the league AND a 3.5 BB/9 rate add up to ERA that will add up faster than the national deficit.
Ty Blach – I’m not sure if San Fran plans on using him as a starter. You should not.
Chad Bettis – I can’t think of a guy I’d rather be very, very wrong about. But even if healthy, his ratios are very, very bad.
Antonio Senzatela – Not as long as he’s in Colorado. And while not terrible away from Colorado, not good enough to roster.
Homer Bailey – On the good news side, post Tommy John velocity returned. Control improved as year went on. Bad news is, even if he improves by 20% in ratios, they’re still awful.
Scott Feldman – Maybe if he signs in San Fran, as has been rumored. Anywhere else, I don’t think so.
Brandon Finnegan – Injured both shoulders in 2017. Needs the luck of the Irish to succeed with that awful BB/9 rate, and anyone who injures both shoulders in a year just doesn’t have it.
Sean Newcomb – Might be some upside here, as he does throw hard and has a great K rate. But no sign he can’t stop walking people, and he’ll destroy your WHIP walking 4.5+/9 IP.
Lucas Sims – Velocity drop when he hit the majors resulted in some serious pummelings. There’s two reasons, and neither are good – he needs to sacrifice velocity for command, or he’s hurt.
Matt Boyd - #4 SP for the Detroit Dumpster Fire. Less upside and more downside than Fiers and Norris.
Robert Stephenson – The Reds version of Sean Newcomb, and he had a favorable BABIP last year.
Zack Wheeler – No, he will not return to 2014 form.
Zach Elfin – Terrible K/9, high HR/9 rate and a lot of runners is an unholy trinity of ugliness.
Justin Nicolino – Yes, he pitches in the friendly confines of Miami. That ends the good news. Terrible K/9 and only mediocre control. Heck, there are batting practice pitchers who strike out more people than Nicolino does.
Nick Pivetta – Had very bad luck with BABIP and strand rate. Decent K rate. Only think about in deep leagues with deep reserve benches.
Ben Lively – Another guy who had some early success and then was battered as the league caught up to him. Nothing to suggest league he will stop the league from continuing to catch up to him.
Luis Perdomo – A player I’m firmly convinced was badly hurt by being a Rule 5 pick, he just walks too many and strikes out too few to deliver any kind of value while likely trashing your WHIP.
Mark Leiter – Just not enough velocity or stuff to trust.
Comment