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Value of top tier SP's..

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  • #31
    Originally posted by revo View Post
    You probably need to ask Ron Shandler that, but here's what they project for both:

    Kluber: 8 W, 102 IP, 121 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.01 WHIP - $37
    Sale: 8 W, 95 IP, 116 K, 3.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP - $35

    EDIT -- in today's projection download, they now have Sale at $35 and Kluber at $34. They dropped one IP, added one K, upped the ERA to 3.16. For Kluber, they dropped 2 IP, took away a W, added 2 Ks, upped the ERA by 6 and the WHIP by 3.
    I was asking you since you had said "BBHQ has him 8th the rest of the way. Seems about right to me" previously.

    Granted, both are top pitchers so we are splitting hairs, but Sale has been better this year and historically (about ~$5 better this year). I don't see any reason to expect Sale to regress any more than Kluber.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by revo View Post
      Was having this exact conversation the other day with Hammer.

      I agree with you 100%, the top tier of pitchers are invaluable -- Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale. He said that in redrafts next year, Kershaw and Scherzer should be the top two picks. I added that Kluber and Sale should probably also be Top 5.

      That said, yes -- it's easily rejectable. You cannot replace Kluber, while HRs are abundant.

      Buuuuuut......the entire next tier of pitchers have been a minefield. Some have been great (Keuchel, Grienke, Darvish, Strasburg, etc); but many have been disasters relative to their cost (Lester, Tanaka, Verlander, Arrieta, Cueto, Porcello, etc.) Now maybe that makes the top guys even MORE valuable, I'm not sure.

      But I agree 100% that HR hitters are dime-a-dozen and the elite SPs have seen their value increase tremendously.
      My $77 worth of NL only Kershaw 45 and Bumgarner32 are not doing much for me right now.

      I still cannot justify taking a pitcher over the top everyday position player.

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      • #33
        We should do a poll at the end of this season to see how many first place teams had at least one of the big four SPs.
        It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by TranaGreg View Post
          We should do a poll at the end of this season to see how many first place teams had at least one of the big four SPs.
          Right now in my league

          Kershaw - 1st place team (me)
          Kluber - 2nd place team ( Mag 7)
          Scherzer - 11th place team ( but this owner is a terrible owner. Never comes close to winning)
          Sale - 10th place team ( another bad owner who never comes close to winning)
          "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Gregg View Post
            My $77 worth of NL only Kershaw 45 and Bumgarner32 are not doing much for me right now.

            I still cannot justify taking a pitcher over the top everyday position player.
            Risk v. Reward. Big 4 or 5 are more valuable than the top hitters. But carry that injury risk. Madbum's injury cant be held against paying big $$ money for him.
            "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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            • #36
              1st - Scherzer (draft) and Kluber (keeper)
              2nd - Kershaw (keeper)
              3rd - Sale (via trade)
              If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
              - Terence McKenna

              Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

              How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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              • #37
                Originally posted by DMT View Post
                1st - Scherzer (draft) and Kluber (keeper)
                2nd - Kershaw (keeper)
                3rd - Sale (via trade)
                NL Only league:

                1st- None. Best SP either Cole or Wacha

                2nd- Kershaw

                3rd - Scherzer

                4th- MadBum

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                  Risk v. Reward. Big 4 or 5 are more valuable than the top hitters. But carry that injury risk. Madbum's injury cant be held against paying big $$ money for him.
                  Madbum's non-baseball related injury doe not make the wasted $32 less painful. I made what I thought was a good investment and it was not.

                  Kershaw is missing time for the second year in a row due to back issues. He is 45x so he goes back in. I wonder if he will go for $45 this auction?

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                    Madbum's non-baseball related injury doe not make the wasted $32 less painful. I made what I thought was a good investment and it was not.

                    Kershaw is missing time for the second year in a row due to back issues. He is 45x so he goes back in. I wonder if he will go for $45 this auction?
                    Re MadBum: true, but I doubt that anyone factors in the old "hurts arm in non-baseball related activity" when drafting players.

                    I have been a huge proponent of believing that Kershaw is the #1 fantasy player. And i have paid handsomely to own him. Not sure I will own him again.
                    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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                    • #40
                      Has there been a slight shift in thinking going into this season on the value of aces?

                      So far the magazines have dropped pitching down a few pegs compared to last year.

                      Comment

                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                        Has there been a slight shift in thinking going into this season on the value of aces?

                        So far the magazines have dropped pitching down a few pegs compared to last year.
                        ADP has more pitchers in the top 20 than previous years. When you say pitching are you referring to a particular tier

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Ken View Post
                          ADP has more pitchers in the top 20 than previous years. When you say pitching are you referring to a particular tier
                          I don't know that is why I am asking.

                          When you say ADP do you mean projected ADP? Where is this information coming from. How many drafts have there been up to Feb.9th?

                          Comment

                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                            I don't know that is why I am asking.

                            When you say ADP do you mean projected ADP? Where is this information coming from. How many drafts have there been up to Feb.9th?
                            I just asked Ray at bbhq this exact question regarding their projections. He says the adp column is updated daily based on completed drafts. I'm guessing but I think their numbers are taken from the nfbc leagues.

                            Comment

                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                              I don't know that is why I am asking.

                              When you say ADP do you mean projected ADP? Where is this information coming from. How many drafts have there been up to Feb.9th?
                              There have been many drafts by Feb 9

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