WAR....what is it good for?

[DMT]

Can anyone explain how WAR is calculated? I'm just trying to understand how Duffy has a higher WAR than McCullers despite significantly worse performance in nearly every category. It's baffling to me that such an obviously flawed statistic is cited so often in player evaluations.

DD LM
IP 68.2 65.1
ERA+ 119 152
FIP 3.43 3.08
WHIP 1.37 1.06
H/9 9.0 6.9
HR/9 0.5 0.8
BB/9 3.3 2.6
K/9 7.1 10.1
K/BB 2.16 3.84
WAR 1.8 1.7

[pitbull]

Absolutely nothing. Say it again! Sorry couldn't resist.

I'll leave this is the more knowledgeable posters.

[Judge Jude]

there are countless versions

this is baseball-reference's

http://www.baseball-reference.com/ab...xplained.shtml

[joncarlos]

Which WAR are you using? There are park effects, league effects, FIP vs ERA calculations, etc. Their FIP is pretty close and Duffy has thrown more innings.

[TranaGreg]

... and Duffy has thrown more innings.

I'm no expert on war but it does seem to value IP pretty significantly - which I kinda like.

[DMT]

Which WAR are you using? There are park effects, league effects, FIP vs ERA calculations, etc. Their FIP is pretty close and Duffy has thrown more innings.

That right there says it all. But I was using BR. So, are you in agreement that 3.1 more IPs outweighs everything else? Park and league effects are incorporated into ERA+, which McCullers destroys him 152 to 119. And his K/BB ratio is nearly double 3.84 to 2.16.

[Ken]

That right there says it all. But I was using BR. So, are you in agreement that 3.1 more IPs outweighs everything else? Park and league effects are incorporated into ERA+, which McCullers destroys him 152 to 119. And his K/BB ratio is nearly double 3.84 to 2.16.

I don't think the fact that there are multiple sources that have their own calculation for WAR "says it all". I would instead argue that this is a relatively subjective value, but it's a decent barometer when comparing starters vs relievers or pitchers vs hitters, something that the traditional stats cannot do.

The reason that IP is relevant is that WAR is an accumulation/counting stat, not a rate stat. So the more innings that are pitched, the more WAR that can be accumulated.

To be fair, Duffy and McCullers are pretty close in WAR - 1.6 vs 1.8. But your point is still a fair one, on the surface it seems that McCullers would be ahead. Some of the factors that may be leaning in Duffy's favor are:

1) McCullers has given up 2 unearned runs vs Duffy's 0. Runs are not separated between earned/unearned in B-R's model.
2) Quality of opponent is a part of the formula and McCullers has faced teams with a combined record of 267-291 vs Duffy's 297-251

If you do want to read more about what goes into B-R's WAR calculation there are articles describing it, such as this one: http://www.baseball-reference.com/ab...ed_pitch.shtml

[Kevin Seitzer]

The biggest difference between FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR is on how they handle dividing up the credit for batted ball results between pitcher and defense.

FanGraphs approach is that other than HR, the batted ball results are all luck and 0% due to the pitcher. Baseball-Reference approach is that the vast majority of the batted ball results are due to the pitcher. A better approach is to actually use the batted ball characteristics to apportion the results, but that approach wasn't possible for public entities until MLB began publishing that information this season. So, AFAIK, there isn't a public WAR that uses it for pitchers yet.

[DMT]

The biggest difference between FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR is on how they handle dividing up the credit for batted ball results between pitcher and defense.

FanGraphs approach is that other than HR, the batted ball results are all luck and 0% due to the pitcher. Baseball-Reference approach is that the vast majority of the batted ball results are due to the pitcher. A better approach is to actually use the batted ball characteristics to apportion the results, but that approach wasn't possible for public entities until MLB began publishing that information this season. So, AFAIK, there isn't a public WAR that uses it for pitchers yet.

Good to know, thanks!

[TranaGreg]

The biggest difference between FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR is on how they handle dividing up the credit for batted ball results between pitcher and defense.

FanGraphs approach is that other than HR, the batted ball results are all luck and 0% due to the pitcher. Baseball-Reference approach is that the vast majority of the batted ball results are due to the pitcher. A better approach is to actually use the batted ball characteristics to apportion the results, but that approach wasn't possible for public entities until MLB began publishing that information this season. So, AFAIK, there isn't a public WAR that uses it for pitchers yet.

I assume that as part of your private WAR calculation for each pitcher-batter interaction you also include variables such as #of hours slept the previous night, marital strife level as measured on a 1-10 scale, and so on ...

[Kevin Seitzer]

I assume that as part of your private WAR calculation for each pitcher-batter interaction you also include variables such as #of hours slept the previous night, marital strife level as measured on a 1-10 scale, and so on ...

And midichlorian levels in their blood, etc.

[chancellor]

I assume that as part of your private WAR calculation for each pitcher-batter interaction you also include variables such as #of hours slept the previous night, marital strife level as measured on a 1-10 scale, and so on ...

Hey, I thought we agreed not to give away Seitz's confidential information!

[TranaGreg]

Hey, I thought we agreed not to give away Seitz's confidential information!

it was all part of a bigger plot to see if they use midichlorian level info ... and he sure spilled the beans on that pretty quickly!!!

[chancellor]

it was all part of a bigger plot to see if they use midichlorian level info ... and he sure spilled the beans on that pretty quickly!!!

That does explain all the "Use the force, Alex" that I heard at the last game.