Tweet
Well, that didn't go according to plan. I figured I'd write it up anyway, mostly because I'm still not 100% sure what happened.
The plan
I went in with the following keepers:
C Contreras $5
1B Bird $1
2B Lemahieu $5
SS Tim Anderson $5
MI Javy Baez $1
OF Hamilton $15
OF Springer $15
OF Buxton $5
SP M Fulmer $3
SP Manaea $5
plus a free Benintendi in my farm system
So going in, I had $200 to spend. I had lots of speed, but I needed AVG and power. And pitching - both saves and some kind of ace. There wasn't a ton of talent available on the hitting side, but there were a few elite bats, and very few who could really help in AVG, but I wanted to get one of them. I didn't really need speed. I also wanted to get a 2nd catcher who would contribute, and didn't mind getting a keeper stash at OF/UT since I had Benintendi. I had a lot of position flexibility with Baez, but there were very few 3Bs out there, so if I had to guess, I'd have said Baez would end up there. There were more interesting high-$ players on the pitching side. Kershaw was available, and I wanted him, but I also thought maybe I could get away with paying the same $50 for two mid-level aces like Cueto and Archer.
Inflation was expected to be high, but PONY owners almost never chase players all the way to their inflated price.
The early rounds
The champs had the first pick and threw out... Jake Odorizzi? He went for $13. Lucroy came out next and went for $26. I thought long and hard about getting in on that and I probably should have. Brian Dozier came out next and went for $33 - another reasonable price that really tempted me. The 4th player out was Starling Marte. There were better fits for my high AVG, high power plan (Ryan Braun, for example, or Freddie Freeman) but Marte coming out first put me in a bind. I chased Marte up to $48 and bought him. I was really hoping he would have come out later so I would know if I needed to chase him, but alas, I was stuck, and probably made the wrong call.
Added Marte, now $152 for 12 players.
Kershaw came out next and went for 51. Posey 31, making me hate passing on Lucroy. Scherzer 40, making me worry about the 2nd tier pitchers. Then Adrian Beltre came out - AVG, power, and a position I needed. I'll take that for $26 all day.
Added Beltre, now $126 for 11 players.
Bumgarner went for 41, Cutch went for 32. If I had a little more faith in Cutch's AVG I would have been all over that. I think he'll hit 25-30 HR and get a boatload of RBI/R, but I don't expect a ton of steals and worry he'll be more in the .270 range. Mark Melancon was next and he was really the only good clsoer I was interested in. After him, it was Kimbrel and then Robertson and then Raisel Iglesias was the 4th best closer available. Yeah. So I paid sticker price and got Melancon for $24. I had the money, I needed the saves.
Added Melancon, now $102 for 10 players. And I've bought 3 of the first 11 nominees.
Ender Inciarte came out next. I love Ender, and he went for $13, but I did NOT need speed so I let him go. Sale 39, Kluber 39, Strasburg 31 were the next 3 buys and my '2 guys for what Kershaw costs' plan looked bad. Ryan Braun came out and went for 40 and I immediately hated my Marte purchase. Kipnis went 23, and then Lester went for 30. I should have been in on Lester at that price but couldn't get my brain to engage. After that, the 1Bs I had thought about went all in a row - Encarnacion 41, Rizzo 46, Freeman 41. Would I have been better off with Freeman at 43 or 44 instead of Marte at 48? Probably.
Kyle Seager came out and I was worried the power was drying up already, so I bought him for $29 and moved Baez to middle. So I ended up with Seager, Beltre, Marte for $103. I could have had Freeman/Braun for 90 and I don't know... CJ Cron for $15? I feel like I did the right thing but I'm not sure.
Added Seager, now $73 for 9 players. (22 players auctioned)
Middle Rounds
Then Wayne showed up and we took a short break. After the break, Cueto went 33, Nelson Cruz went 35 and my plan was not looking so hot since I didn't buy either. David Price went for 16 and I couldn't decide if I should be in on it. Adam Eaton went 19 and I hated my Marte buy even more, since I love Eaton but didn't need that kind of player. I sat out a lot of interesting buys (Cespedes 42, Tanaka 26, CarGo 30) and then Christian Yelich went for 36 adn I knew that sanity had gone out the window.
I didn't buy another player until #75 when I bought Brandon Drury for $11. He should be starting at 2B for Arizona and I love that park for hitters. He'll start in the OF but gives me the flexibility to trade one of my MIs in a dump deal if needed. I didn't see a lot of options for .280 and 20 at this point so I'm hoping that's what he does.
Added Drury, now $62 for 8 players.
Of course I still didn't have any pitching. Shawn Kelley went for 8 and I should have jumped in. I finally got my SP3 when I bought Iwakuma for $6. At this point I knew I'd be cobbling together a pitching staff of 2 and 3 star SPs and he was a solid one. 2 picks later I bought Taijuan Walker for $10.
Added Kuma and Walker, now $46 for 6 players.
I was starting to be in danger of not spending all my money. I let Beltran go for 10 and Travis Shaw for 5, both of which I hated to pass on, because I wanted to leave room for better guys. When Hector Neris came out, I knew I wanted to get really good ratios from my RPs to make up for my so-so SPs, so I jumped in and got him for 9, which was way too much.
Added Neris, now $37 for 5 players.
End game
We finally got to the 2nd tier catchers and I bought Wieters for $8. He's fine, but Vogt went 6 right after, and Yadi went for 4 a few picks later. I let Cotton and Heyward go, though maybe I should have chased Heyward higher. He went 15 and I'm not sure I believe that much.
Added Wieters, now $29 for 4 players.
I finally filled my UT spot with Corey Dickerson for $9. I could have had Choo instead, and probably should have.
I rounded out my staff with Gio Gonzalez for $7, Nate Jones for $6 and Daniel Norris for $3.
Norris was my cheapest player and he was $3. I was done relatively early so I didn't get the fun end game picks. And I left $4 on the table. I also didn't really leave a spot for Benintendi, though Dickerson will probably get hurt soon enough.
I don't mind the $15 on Jones and Neris since they can really anchor my staff even if they're not closing.
Final roster:
C Contreras 5 and Wieters 8
1B/3B/CI Bird 1, Seager 29, Beltre 26
2B/SS/MI Lemahieu 5, TAnderson 5, Baez 1
OF Marte 48, Springer 15, Hamilton 15, Buxton 5, Drury 11
UT Dickerson 9
SP M Fulmer 3, Manaea 5, Iwakuma 6, Tai Walker 10, Gio 7, D Norris 3
RP Melancon 24, Neris 9, N Jones 6
The plan
I went in with the following keepers:
C Contreras $5
1B Bird $1
2B Lemahieu $5
SS Tim Anderson $5
MI Javy Baez $1
OF Hamilton $15
OF Springer $15
OF Buxton $5
SP M Fulmer $3
SP Manaea $5
plus a free Benintendi in my farm system
So going in, I had $200 to spend. I had lots of speed, but I needed AVG and power. And pitching - both saves and some kind of ace. There wasn't a ton of talent available on the hitting side, but there were a few elite bats, and very few who could really help in AVG, but I wanted to get one of them. I didn't really need speed. I also wanted to get a 2nd catcher who would contribute, and didn't mind getting a keeper stash at OF/UT since I had Benintendi. I had a lot of position flexibility with Baez, but there were very few 3Bs out there, so if I had to guess, I'd have said Baez would end up there. There were more interesting high-$ players on the pitching side. Kershaw was available, and I wanted him, but I also thought maybe I could get away with paying the same $50 for two mid-level aces like Cueto and Archer.
Inflation was expected to be high, but PONY owners almost never chase players all the way to their inflated price.
The early rounds
The champs had the first pick and threw out... Jake Odorizzi? He went for $13. Lucroy came out next and went for $26. I thought long and hard about getting in on that and I probably should have. Brian Dozier came out next and went for $33 - another reasonable price that really tempted me. The 4th player out was Starling Marte. There were better fits for my high AVG, high power plan (Ryan Braun, for example, or Freddie Freeman) but Marte coming out first put me in a bind. I chased Marte up to $48 and bought him. I was really hoping he would have come out later so I would know if I needed to chase him, but alas, I was stuck, and probably made the wrong call.
Added Marte, now $152 for 12 players.
Kershaw came out next and went for 51. Posey 31, making me hate passing on Lucroy. Scherzer 40, making me worry about the 2nd tier pitchers. Then Adrian Beltre came out - AVG, power, and a position I needed. I'll take that for $26 all day.
Added Beltre, now $126 for 11 players.
Bumgarner went for 41, Cutch went for 32. If I had a little more faith in Cutch's AVG I would have been all over that. I think he'll hit 25-30 HR and get a boatload of RBI/R, but I don't expect a ton of steals and worry he'll be more in the .270 range. Mark Melancon was next and he was really the only good clsoer I was interested in. After him, it was Kimbrel and then Robertson and then Raisel Iglesias was the 4th best closer available. Yeah. So I paid sticker price and got Melancon for $24. I had the money, I needed the saves.
Added Melancon, now $102 for 10 players. And I've bought 3 of the first 11 nominees.
Ender Inciarte came out next. I love Ender, and he went for $13, but I did NOT need speed so I let him go. Sale 39, Kluber 39, Strasburg 31 were the next 3 buys and my '2 guys for what Kershaw costs' plan looked bad. Ryan Braun came out and went for 40 and I immediately hated my Marte purchase. Kipnis went 23, and then Lester went for 30. I should have been in on Lester at that price but couldn't get my brain to engage. After that, the 1Bs I had thought about went all in a row - Encarnacion 41, Rizzo 46, Freeman 41. Would I have been better off with Freeman at 43 or 44 instead of Marte at 48? Probably.
Kyle Seager came out and I was worried the power was drying up already, so I bought him for $29 and moved Baez to middle. So I ended up with Seager, Beltre, Marte for $103. I could have had Freeman/Braun for 90 and I don't know... CJ Cron for $15? I feel like I did the right thing but I'm not sure.
Added Seager, now $73 for 9 players. (22 players auctioned)
Middle Rounds
Then Wayne showed up and we took a short break. After the break, Cueto went 33, Nelson Cruz went 35 and my plan was not looking so hot since I didn't buy either. David Price went for 16 and I couldn't decide if I should be in on it. Adam Eaton went 19 and I hated my Marte buy even more, since I love Eaton but didn't need that kind of player. I sat out a lot of interesting buys (Cespedes 42, Tanaka 26, CarGo 30) and then Christian Yelich went for 36 adn I knew that sanity had gone out the window.
I didn't buy another player until #75 when I bought Brandon Drury for $11. He should be starting at 2B for Arizona and I love that park for hitters. He'll start in the OF but gives me the flexibility to trade one of my MIs in a dump deal if needed. I didn't see a lot of options for .280 and 20 at this point so I'm hoping that's what he does.
Added Drury, now $62 for 8 players.
Of course I still didn't have any pitching. Shawn Kelley went for 8 and I should have jumped in. I finally got my SP3 when I bought Iwakuma for $6. At this point I knew I'd be cobbling together a pitching staff of 2 and 3 star SPs and he was a solid one. 2 picks later I bought Taijuan Walker for $10.
Added Kuma and Walker, now $46 for 6 players.
I was starting to be in danger of not spending all my money. I let Beltran go for 10 and Travis Shaw for 5, both of which I hated to pass on, because I wanted to leave room for better guys. When Hector Neris came out, I knew I wanted to get really good ratios from my RPs to make up for my so-so SPs, so I jumped in and got him for 9, which was way too much.
Added Neris, now $37 for 5 players.
End game
We finally got to the 2nd tier catchers and I bought Wieters for $8. He's fine, but Vogt went 6 right after, and Yadi went for 4 a few picks later. I let Cotton and Heyward go, though maybe I should have chased Heyward higher. He went 15 and I'm not sure I believe that much.
Added Wieters, now $29 for 4 players.
I finally filled my UT spot with Corey Dickerson for $9. I could have had Choo instead, and probably should have.
I rounded out my staff with Gio Gonzalez for $7, Nate Jones for $6 and Daniel Norris for $3.
Norris was my cheapest player and he was $3. I was done relatively early so I didn't get the fun end game picks. And I left $4 on the table. I also didn't really leave a spot for Benintendi, though Dickerson will probably get hurt soon enough.
I don't mind the $15 on Jones and Neris since they can really anchor my staff even if they're not closing.
Final roster:
C Contreras 5 and Wieters 8
1B/3B/CI Bird 1, Seager 29, Beltre 26
2B/SS/MI Lemahieu 5, TAnderson 5, Baez 1
OF Marte 48, Springer 15, Hamilton 15, Buxton 5, Drury 11
UT Dickerson 9
SP M Fulmer 3, Manaea 5, Iwakuma 6, Tai Walker 10, Gio 7, D Norris 3
RP Melancon 24, Neris 9, N Jones 6