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Everyone makes sports predictions but seldom are people evaluated for them. I thought this would be fun to do, so I looked at several of the big sports sites to see what the preseason predictions were for the playoff teams.
ESPN
No one out of 31 people got the all the division winners. The closest was Mark Simon (never heard of him) who got 5 out of 6, missing only w Houston instead of TExas in the AL West. Noone will get the wild cards rt either. Simon again will come close, as he predicted the Orioles, Mets (both probably in), Cards (possible) and Yanks (nope). Noone got all 6 wrong either (as practically everyone had the CUbs winning the NL Central), altho 4 (including the well-respected Tim Kurkjian) got only 1 right. Amazingly, someone predicted the Twins to win the AL Central (huh???).
CBS Sports
This was even worse. OUt of 5 people, noone got more than 2 right. Again, noone was skunked as everyone had the Cubs winning. 4 of 5 had the Blues Jays winning, likewise for the Astros, Mets and Giants and everybody picked KC. Everyone picked at least 2 probable playoff teams for their wildcards and Jonah Keri got 4.
Sports Illustrated
Out of 7 people, the most anyone got was 4 correct (Albert Chen - never heard of him). Most got only 2 right and 1 got only 1. Again, everyone picked the Cubs and most picked the Blue Jays, Royals, Astros, Mets and Giants.
MLB.com
Only 1 person this time (John Schlegel - never heard of him) and he got only 1 right (Cubs again). Again, he picked the Blue Jays, Royals, Astros, Mets and Giants. Sound like Groupthink? (well it worked w the Cubs, anyway) Maybe it's that people have a tendency to predict the present - the Jays, Royals and Mets all won last year.
USA Today
Out of seven people, again noone got them all but Bob Nightengale got 5 (had Giants instead of Dodgers). Not as good on the wild cards tho, as he had the Astros, Royals, Mets and Cards. Two had only 1 right.
Yahoo Sports
Of 6 people, the most anyone got was 5 right (Tim Brown (NHOH) - missed only on Royals) and 1 got only 1 right (you guessed it - Cubs).
Baseball Prospectus
Did an analytics-oriented site do any better? Not much. This was a consensus prediction w 45 people voting (individual ballots were listed but in a format that wasnt easy to peruse). AT least they got the Indians and Dodgers correct, along w the Cubs. They missed on the Jays, Astros and Mets.
Fangraphs
How about another analytics-oriented site? This was another consensus prediction w 55 people voting. Like BP, they got the Indians and Dodgers correct, along w the Cubs and missed on the Jays, Astros and Mets. Individual ballots were listed and nobody got all 6 altho 3 got 5 right, including the quirky Carson Cistulli (they each missed on Houston).
So to summarize, out of 112 people that I looked at noone correctly picked all 6 division winners. I dont know about the 45 individual voters at BP.
Also, practically noone predicted my Orioles to make the playoffs; in fact practically everyone picked them to finish last.
Shows the unpredictability of baseball. That's why they play the games. (true also in roto)!
ESPN
No one out of 31 people got the all the division winners. The closest was Mark Simon (never heard of him) who got 5 out of 6, missing only w Houston instead of TExas in the AL West. Noone will get the wild cards rt either. Simon again will come close, as he predicted the Orioles, Mets (both probably in), Cards (possible) and Yanks (nope). Noone got all 6 wrong either (as practically everyone had the CUbs winning the NL Central), altho 4 (including the well-respected Tim Kurkjian) got only 1 right. Amazingly, someone predicted the Twins to win the AL Central (huh???).
CBS Sports
This was even worse. OUt of 5 people, noone got more than 2 right. Again, noone was skunked as everyone had the Cubs winning. 4 of 5 had the Blues Jays winning, likewise for the Astros, Mets and Giants and everybody picked KC. Everyone picked at least 2 probable playoff teams for their wildcards and Jonah Keri got 4.
Sports Illustrated
Out of 7 people, the most anyone got was 4 correct (Albert Chen - never heard of him). Most got only 2 right and 1 got only 1. Again, everyone picked the Cubs and most picked the Blue Jays, Royals, Astros, Mets and Giants.
MLB.com
Only 1 person this time (John Schlegel - never heard of him) and he got only 1 right (Cubs again). Again, he picked the Blue Jays, Royals, Astros, Mets and Giants. Sound like Groupthink? (well it worked w the Cubs, anyway) Maybe it's that people have a tendency to predict the present - the Jays, Royals and Mets all won last year.
USA Today
Out of seven people, again noone got them all but Bob Nightengale got 5 (had Giants instead of Dodgers). Not as good on the wild cards tho, as he had the Astros, Royals, Mets and Cards. Two had only 1 right.
Yahoo Sports
Of 6 people, the most anyone got was 5 right (Tim Brown (NHOH) - missed only on Royals) and 1 got only 1 right (you guessed it - Cubs).
Baseball Prospectus
Did an analytics-oriented site do any better? Not much. This was a consensus prediction w 45 people voting (individual ballots were listed but in a format that wasnt easy to peruse). AT least they got the Indians and Dodgers correct, along w the Cubs. They missed on the Jays, Astros and Mets.
Fangraphs
How about another analytics-oriented site? This was another consensus prediction w 55 people voting. Like BP, they got the Indians and Dodgers correct, along w the Cubs and missed on the Jays, Astros and Mets. Individual ballots were listed and nobody got all 6 altho 3 got 5 right, including the quirky Carson Cistulli (they each missed on Houston).
So to summarize, out of 112 people that I looked at noone correctly picked all 6 division winners. I dont know about the 45 individual voters at BP.
Also, practically noone predicted my Orioles to make the playoffs; in fact practically everyone picked them to finish last.
Shows the unpredictability of baseball. That's why they play the games. (true also in roto)!