2K16: AJ Pollock

[Pauly]

Maybe it is the same 2 or 3 posters here but I am tired of reading how much Pollock is going to regress without any rationale besides he managed to stay healthy and had his best year ever in 2015.

To quote FG:

A.J. Pollock was trending toward this kind of season in 2014 when it was interrupted by a broken hand. He came back to finish that season strong, and that production carried over into 2015. Pollock finished tied for second in wins above replacement in the outfield, with Lorenzo Cain (and far behind Mike Trout), and he was fourth overall in the National League in that category. He's one of the best power / speed players in the game, as his 20 home runs and 39 stolen bases were both career highs. Hitting ahead of Paul Goldschmidt doesn't hurt his run-scoring ability, and neither does his .367 on-base percentage. He was an offensive force.

So he hit 20 HR with 39 SB last year. He gets on base in front of one of the best hitters in the game. He wont be sitting for Ender Inciarte any more. He plays in an above average hitter's park. Yes it is a very tough standard to live up to, but Pollock is only 28 years old and in his prime.

So junkies, why all the doom and gloom? I just dont get it.

[Todd Zola]

I know of a web-site that has Pollock 5th overall.

[Pauly]

With very few exceptions, players that all of a sudden become very good at age 28 after toiling for years in mediocrity should not be relied upon to recreate their career years. That goes doubly so for older players who derive such a huge % of their value from SBs. The dropoff for players with this kind of profile tends to be severe.

he derives a ton of value for runs scored and power numbers and BA/OBP...how huge is his % of value derived from SB?
Im just not seeing "years of mediocrity"

• He played 137 games in 2013 and was good for his first full season.
• He was very good in 2014 - eclipsing all of his 2013 numbers in 75 games and then broke his hand.
• He put it all together in 2015.

Sorry I dont mean to jump all over the statement...your theory holds water for his 4-year outlook I think. But this should be an "in the prime year." And you hate Diamondbacks

[Hornsby]

Pollock actually had a nice 3 season run up in pretty much all stats, derailed by an injury in 2014. He was 27 last year, so this will be his age 28 season, right in the middle of his prime years. He's got a very good lineup around him, hits in a good park, so I don't see any reason why he regresses to any major degree, if at all.

[revo]

With very few exceptions, players that all of a sudden become very good at age 28 after toiling for years in mediocrity should not be relied upon to recreate their career years. That goes doubly so for older players who derive such a huge % of their value from SBs. The dropoff for players with this kind of profile tends to be severe.

Well, he just turned 28 in December and it could be argued that he had his breakout campaign the previous season, in 2014 at age 26, which was curtailed by injury.

Was he ever actually mediocre? He's actually doing now what's he done all along in the minors: .294/.347/.464 in the majors, .298/.348/.412 in the minors. Maybe that's not a hall of famer, but I'm not sure I would call that mediocre. He was a 1st round pick, so the pedigree is there also.

I can understand the fear about SBs -- if he turns into a 15 SB guy but keeps everything else the same, his value just got chopped in half. Buuuuut.....I'd be surprised if that SB depression happened this year.

[Sour Masher]

People rightly pegged him as a sleeper before last year, after signs he was consolidating his skills and might put it all together in 2015. Last year they did in spectacular fashion, and those who touted and targeted him last year should rightly pat themselves on the back for their prescience, and those in keeper leagues will enjoy both players at great values this year. I do not think he is a one year wonder, or that he will regress significantly any more than I think that about Arrieta, another talented player who took a long time to stay healthy and put it all together (I think I may even be higher on Arrieta than some here; in fact I'd probably spend nearly as much on Arrieta as Pollock). Both are great players to own.

But while I'd be happy to have either player on my team right now, the acquisition costs for those who don't have them yet seems too high given their short track records of sustained excellence. In Pollock's case especially, it seems a lot of folks are willing to pay for a full season of repeated production. If you can get either for 80% of their value last year, I think that is a good deal. But if you have to spend top 10 money or a top 10 pick on Pollock, you are investing an awful lot on someone without a long track record of the kind of success he had last year.

Of course, every player has nits to pick if you look closely enough, and so I can't blame a fellow for rolling the dice on the guy who outperformed nearly everyone last year. He performed like a top 10 guy last year, but looking at the field right now, I'd probably take 17-18 players in a mixed league before I felt compelled to snag Pollock. That is a very high valuation of his talent, but one that nonetheless assume some regression. All he has to do is steal a few less bases, hit a few less homers, miss a few more games, and he isn't worth where many are taking him now.

[Gregg]

According to RotoWorld Baseball Magazine; He has been able to maintain a high BABIP in his career and with a contact rate he is capable of hitting .300 again. His home run increase is due to his greatly increased flyball distance, so he might not fall off in power as much as some presume.

[joncarlos]

Any ideas if this elbow thing is serious?

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/cactus-league/2016/03/12/aj-pollock-remains-sidelined-elbow-issue/81707602/?hootPostID=bebc2c68dee5c7f267a5cb79f40667f1

But Pollock insists the state of his elbow isn’t a concern. An MRI he underwent on Wednesday ruled out any structural damage, so his focus at this point is making sure that the next time he returns to the lineup it’s for good.

[Pauly]

Any ideas if this elbow thing is serious?

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sport...a5cb79f40667f1

sounds like one of those spring training knocking off the rust things *it better be*