2K24: San Diego Padres

[The Feral Slasher]

Saw something around somewhere on the interwebs that said that not one single starting shortstop from 2007 (14 years ago) is still in the league today. I think that just changed very recently since Ben Zobrist just signed a minor league deal, iirc. Still, makes ya think...

If my career won't last 14 years I will reconsider becoming a MLB shortstop

[Teenwolf]

Please show me another long term contract that has really worked out for the team? The Pujols contract alone ruined the Angels chances of playoff success for a decade. Sure looks like the Rockies felt the Arenado contract worked for them?? David Price in BOS? I think the Red Sox are paying half his salary still.
I can see SD not only trading Tatis within 3 years, but having to put in a large amount of $$$ in the trade just to get a team to take him off their hands.

Although I generally agree with your premise that almost all LT contracts turn bad, I'll play first.

Max Scherzer signed a 5 year, $105 mil deal after 2015. That's gone very well.

Derek Jeter's 10 year, $189 mil deal from 2001-'10 worked out pretty okay for the Yanks.

[Bene Futuis]

Saw something around somewhere on the interwebs that said that not one single starting shortstop from 2007 (14 years ago) is still in the league today. I think that just changed very recently since Ben Zobrist just signed a minor league deal, iirc. Still, makes ya think...

[cleo]

Last season, Bellinger received $11.5 million in his first year of arbitration (the record). Arenado set the overall arbitration record with a $26 million dollar deal in his final year. So let's assume the following:

2021: $500K (final pre-arb season)
2022: $12M
2023: $20M
2024: $28M (final arb season)
2025 - 2034: $35 million per season for 10 seasons (via free agency)
Total: $410.5M (which may be slightly conservative seeing as how Trout received $426.5)

Thus, Tatis has probably left $70 - $100 million dollars on the table. Even billionaires believe that's a lot of money, so to a brand new millionaire...that's definitely significant.

Please show me another long term contract that has really worked out for the team? The Pujols contract alone ruined the Angels chances of playoff success for a decade. Sure looks like the Rockies felt the Arenado contract worked for them?? David Price in BOS? I think the Red Sox are paying half his salary still.
I can see SD not only trading Tatis within 3 years, but having to put in a large amount of $$$ in the trade just to get a team to take him off their hands.

[The Feral Slasher]

Your $70-$100m deficit is the combination of injury risk, market risk, and decreased performance risk along with net present value of money. Consider that the $10m signing bonus alone is worth ~$20m in 14 years.

Seems about right.

I agree. Perhaps more risk for Tatis. My guess is he would have done better on a shorter contract...but locking in hundreds of millions of dollars is also not a bad idea. He is clearly financially secure for life so all he needs to deal with is the ego/mental aspect of wishing he got tens of millions more as the contract plays out

[Ken]

Last season, Bellinger received $11.5 million in his first year of arbitration (the record). Arenado set the overall arbitration record with a $26 million dollar deal in his final year. So let's assume the following:

2021: $500K (final pre-arb season)
2022: $12M
2023: $20M
2024: $28M (final arb season)
2025 - 2034: $35 million per season for 10 seasons (via free agency)
Total: $410.5M (which may be slightly conservative seeing as how Trout received $426.5)

Thus, Tatis has probably left $70 - $100 million dollars on the table. Even billionaires believe that's a lot of money, so to a brand new millionaire...that's definitely significant.

Your $70-$100m deficit is the combination of injury risk, market risk, and decreased performance risk along with net present value of money. Consider that the $10m signing bonus alone is worth ~$20m in 14 years.

Seems about right.

[ThatRogue]

Maybe, but it is close and a hell of a lot better than Acuna's awful deal. Unlike Acuna, I doubt Tatis ends up regretting this deal.

Last season, Bellinger received $11.5 million in his first year of arbitration (the record). Arenado set the overall arbitration record with a $26 million dollar deal in his final year. So let's assume the following:

2021: $500K (final pre-arb season)
2022: $12M
2023: $20M
2024: $28M (final arb season)
2025 - 2034: $35 million per season for 10 seasons (via free agency)
Total: $410.5M (which may be slightly conservative seeing as how Trout received $426.5)

Thus, Tatis has probably left $70 - $100 million dollars on the table. Even billionaires believe that's a lot of money, so to a brand new millionaire...that's definitely significant.

[ThatRogue]

Agree per money on the table, though in my IPA contemplations last night, I realized it's less than I thought. Revo, being the financial wizard on the board, can do the math better than I can, but Tatis will get somewhere from $50-80 mil more in the next three years than he would have, and that can come with a pretty big time value of money with it if he's smart about putting a chunk of that away.

Considering the way the Acuna deal was structured, I don't think there's any way he's getting that much in the next three years. I'd be surprised if he makes more than $26 million over the next three seasons (I'd assume something like $2 million, then $9 million, then $15 million)...and that's probably not far off from what he'd have received in arbitration.

[Sour Masher]

Agreed. Once again, the owners make out like bandits. The overall money is incredible in the context of “normal people”...but he’s probably leaving a lot of money on the table.

Maybe, but it is close and a hell of a lot better than Acuna's awful deal. Unlike Acuna, I doubt Tatis ends up regretting this deal.

[Ken]

Interesting - I came to the exact opposite conclusion and that agents were gonna be PO'd since the owners will point to a guy with Trout-level talent getting $25 mil/year instead of $40-45 mil/year. It not only impacts FA contracts, but also arbitration values.

I think everyone in those type negotiations grasps the difference between pre-arb contracts and free agent contracts. You are comparing apples and oranges.